There are two really surprising things here, the first one being that Oklahoma State is +8 on turnovers and that’s downright shocking. That’s top 15 in the country and it is largely because they just aren’t turning the ball over that much, only 12 for the year. Mason Rudolph isn’t throwing picks and if there’s been a flaw, it’s that the running backs have dropped 8 fumbles on the turf.
The other surprising statistic is that Oklahoma State isn’t all that great at third downs. They’re still in the top third, but I would have thought that they would be a bit better. Maybe that’s the lack of a running game that’s hurting them a bit.
Defensively, Oklahoma State is leaps and bounds better than Texas Tech’s defense. The points per play is probably the most surprising. They’re only in the top half in the NCAA, but that’s how far back Texas Tech is in comparison. The other scary thing for Texas Tech is the red zone scores given up, which is nearly on par with how Texas Tech scores on offense.
Oklahoma State is a very good offense, they aren’t really deficient in any one category other than explosive rushing plays. I make this joke each week, but the Texas Tech offense solves a lot of those problems. The field position metric on offense (and defense) for Oklahoma State is one where they must do a heck of a job in their return game and limiting returns on defense. That’s real yards and a significant advantage.
Texas Tech’s offense is slipping as the weeks continue and they need a bounce-back game. I also think that the Rushing IsoPPP is incorrect and should be 0.86, just not enough time to make that change. The rank is correct and that may be the most important thing, which is that Texas Tech gives up a ton of big plays offensively. For Oklahoma State, they definitely aren’t elite, but I’d kill for that 84th overall S&P+ ranking.
Again, pay attention to the field position and the difference between where Texas Tech is giving up the ball. If there’s a weakness for Oklahoma State, it’s the passing game. The short stuff has been there for opposing offenses and the running game is susceptible too, but Texas Tech’s running game hasn’t been one that’s been entirely effective.