Such big news earlier this week with Patrick Mahomes declaring for the 2017 NFL Draft, it was necessary to convene an Emergency Roundtable.
seth: Patrick Mahomes has declared for the NFL Draft and I thought we’d discuss three separate topics:
1. Mahomes entering the draft, the decision and all that comes with it.
2. What this means for the Texas Tech football program?
3. Who do you think is receiving those shotgun snaps next year and why?
Let’s tackle that first one, your general thoughts on Mahomes entering the draft.
briandc: Mahomes declaring is absolute correct choice given the context. Do I think, as objectively as possible, he would benefit from another year in college? No doubt in my mind. He still relies on his scrambling a bit too much, which I don’t think will work as well in the NFL. More than that, he needs to continue to work on his reads & progressions, trusting in the play instead of improvising. However, you have to strike while the iron is hot, and the QB class in this draft gives him a better chance to get the money he deserves. Why risk another year in college and potentially get injured AND be in a potentially more stacked QB class where you could get lost in the crowd? Don’t be a martyr, go be a millionaire
seth: I agree. There’s only so many times that you get to chase a dream and you just can’t pass up those opportunities when they come around. As we’ve seen, the insurance policy that these players can take out aren’t up to the earning potential that they could make if they go pro. I think the Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith had an insurance policy for $900,000, which is great, but being injured in the bowl game cost him millions.
For Mahomes and every other player that makes this decision, there’s a lot that goes into it and those sort of decisions aren’t easy to make. There’s family to consider and I think family plays as big a part as anything else.
Ultimately, I think this was the right decision for Mahomes. The risk is not worth the reward.
michael: It’s logical, and no matter what my heart says, my head agrees with his decision. I do wonder if he would have come back had he not been injured this past season. That was probably a wake up call along with giving it your all every week and not seeing the results in the win column.
I can’t wish this kid enough luck. As Brian said, his talent is a bit raw for the NFL right now, but that can change. He’s a hard working, motivated player. Anything is possible with Mahomes.
meestahrogers: I completely agree with Brian’s statement about striking while the iron is hot. We all know Mahomes isn’t just going to stroll on the field in the NFL and perform how he did at Tech. But there are several other factors here, including the outlook of staying at Tech and how the 2017 performance could help or hurt his draft prospects next year, how the draft stacks up this year for QB and how he’s valued right now
seth: So, is Mahomes Kingsbury’s greatest success story? Moreso than Maziel? I know the story still has a lot to be written, but the Mahomes’ story is infinitely better right now (I think).
meestahrogers: I don’t know if we can say he’s Kingsbury’s best success story mainly because of the Heisman. That could change if Mahomes performs better in the NFL but both guys were lightly recruited 3* guys from smaller high school programs that performed at high levels. I know a lot of everything I’ve said is dependent on the talent surrounding them and I think we can agree A&M had more talent around Manziel than Tech did around Mahomes. Mahomes put up more impressive stats, but the wins and national recognition weren’t there for Pat.
seth: Of course, Manziel though was lightly recruited because he’s got issues, that are obviously still a problem today, but with Mahomes, he’s a guy that has played quarterback for just five years. That’s still somewhat astounding to me.
seth: What’s the general thought on how this will affect 2017? I’ve seen some Big 12 writers claim that this probably means that Texas Tech should be picked anywhere between 8th and 9th in 2017. How much does this affect the 2017 season?
meestahrogers: It’s hard to imagine how much this will impact 2017. I really can’t see him leaving as helping any and until this team proves otherwise, 8th or 9th is probably where this team should be picked. Unfortunately, if that happens, it’s hard to see Kingsbury being retained for 2018
briandc: Like Spencer, I feel that Manziel’s Heisman hangs pretty heavy in the conversation. On one hand, he’s doing it with Mike Evans. On the other, and for all of the saber rattling about this, it was against SEC defenses and you can’t write it all of on his receivers. He was insanely talented. But you make an excellent point, Seth. Mahomes has only been doing this for 5 years, and football was his BACK UP sport!
2017 is going to be all about seeing results from Gibbs, because if not, “precarious” would be a generous word for the program’s situation. I believe with a full offseason of prep, Kingsbury can get Shimonek/Duffey/whomever ready to conduct the offense. But, Duffey’s potential aside, it’s going to be exactly that: conducting. We’ll have to system the hell out of our offensive success, and we’ll need a defense that can effectively balance that out.
seth: Yeah, I agree with the idea that Kingsbury can produce a good offense, top 5 or whatever. Kingsbury has done it with freshmen quarterbacks and now he has one that I think is like your Sonny Cumbie or B.J. Symons, the one-off senior who is probably going to play his tail off for you.
The question remains if Gibbs can make some strides on the defensive side of the ball. I really have no reason to be, but I’m bullish on the defense and think they will make some strides. We’ll get to that in another roundtable.
So, question #3 remains, which is who you think leads the team in 2017. With the Duffey news dropping, it appears that it’s a two-man race between Nic Shimonek and McLane Carter. Who ya got?
meestahrogers: Give me Tatty Ice. Shimonek is mostly a known commodity, he’s been on campus and in the offense going on 3 years now and will have the maturity of a senior. I always saw Carter as sort of a depth guy, to keep the numbers right and fill in as necessary (a la Testaverde), with the real intent to let Duffey (or Martin) get a little situated in the offense before they take over. I’m probably underselling Carter a bit, though
michael: Shimonek appears to be the sure thing in this case. Carter may give him a run for his money, as he looks to be a competitor who plans to come in and shake things up. Ultimately, though, I see Shimonek taking the snaps in 2017.
briandc: I feel that Shimonek will be the one ultimately taking snaps, but I’m very excited to see what Xavier Martin will bring to the table. Bringing him in at mid-term seems pretty big now, and Kliff has shown that he’ll send out whomever he thinks will get it done, regardless of age. I’d be comfortable with whomever takes the snaps, though, as I like what I saw from Shim this past season
seth: Did @briandc or anyone else play a lot of The Cure last night or maybe The Smiths?
Ironically, I did hear Love Song by the Cure on my way home and I didn’t think it was a coincidence.
briandc: I had that one Titanic song going in my head most of yesterday evening. I also tweeted out a #FeelingsCollage of various songs after the news came out
seth: Fun fact: I’ve never seen the movie Titanic. Or maybe better stated, I’ve been able to avoid the movie Titanic for 19 years.
briandc: I think i’ve seen maybe 15 minutes of it total? Something will Billy Zane, and then i watched DiCaprio drown. Think that’s about it
oh, spoilers i guess