Baseball

TTU BSB: How To Replace An All-American

We’re to try and figure out a plan on how to replace Steven Gingery. Plus a look at how Texas Tech and the Big 12 did last week.

Before we get through the ups and downs of the past week, let’s discuss the plan for Texas Tech to replace Steven Gingery.

The answer? You’re not going to replace him. Unless a pitcher on this staff makes monumental strides from last season, you can’t replace an All-American player. But you can try and use multiple players to replace Gingery’s and the team’s production.

In the now famous Moneyball (written by Michael Lewis, who also famously wrote The Blind Side), Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane has to find out how to replace all-stars Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Olmedo Saenz. Instead of trying to replace the single production of Giambi, he combined all three batters he needed to replace, averaged them out, and replaced them that way.

Now this isn’t exactly the same because Tech plays at the college level and we are replacing a pitcher, but it’s a similar concept. You don’t have to replace Gingery’s average 6 IP and 1 ER per start with one player, you can replace him (and the finishing numbers from his start) with multiple players. Here’s what Gingery did last year, and here’s how each game ended:

Steven Gingery Total
Date (Opponent) IP / ER ( R ) IP / ER ( R )
Feb. 17 (Miss State) 7 IP / 2 ER 9 IP / 2 ER
Feb. 25 (Cal) 7 IP / ER 9 IP / ER
Mar. 4 (Ole Miss) 8 IP / ER 9 IP / ER
Mar. 11 (UTSA) 8.2 IP / 2 ER 9 IP / 3 ER
Mar. 18 (Texas) 6 IP / 0 ER (1 R) 9 IP / 0 ER (1 R)
Mar. 25 (Wichita State) 6 IP / 0 ER 9 IP / ER
April 1 (Oklahoma) 6 IP / 0 ER 9 IP / 4 ER
April 8 (Baylor) 5.1 IP / 1 ER (2 R) 9 IP / 2 ER (3 R)
April 14 (Kansas State) 6 IP / 4 ER 9 IP / 4 ER
April 22 (Oklahoma State) 6 IP / ER 9 IP / 2 ER
April 30 (TCU) 3 IP / ER (2 R) 9 IP / 3 ER (4 R)
May 7 (West Virginia) 4.2 IP / ER (3 ER) 9 IP / 1 ER (3 R)
May 18 (Kansas) 5 IP / 3 ER 9 IP / 6 ER
May 25 (Baylor 6 IP / 0 ER 9 IP / 1 ER
June 3 (Sam Houston State) 6 IP / 0 ER 9 IP / 0 ER

That’s a 1.59 ERA for Gingery and 2.33 ERA for the Red Raiders in his starts. To replace these stats, first off, we’re going to need Lanning or Shetter (whoever takes over the Sunday starter job) to go at least four, five or maybe six strong innings. Although it would be nice for them to go longer, if Tech can get to the halfway point of the game, that’s fine enough.

Then we’ll need another longer reliever get late into the game before the bullpen takes over. Ty Harpenau and Dylan Dusek did a great job taking over Gingery after his injury, and perhaps John Henry Gonzalez or Caleb Kilian could be in that role as well. Finally, the bullpen can do what they usually do, with either Jose Quezada, Caleb Freeman or another arm takes over.

This is a lot like replacing Davis Martin last year, but on a larger scale because of Gingery’s production in 2017. Although last year Tech didn’t have the depth of potential pitchers like it does this season. Texas Tech’s season isn’t over because of this injury.

Sorry for my nerdy plan, let’s review how Texas Tech did in the past week with the Ladders and Chutes. Should be noted I was only able to watch Tuesday’s game against NMST, so the UTSA are reviews are based off radio announcers and stats. This review does not include the UTRGV game:

Ladders

  • Ryan Shetter — Shetter bounced back with maybe his best performance in the Red and Black on Tuesday, with six scoreless innings, nine strikeouts and allowed just two baserunners (one hit and a HBP). He’s going to have to be good in my opinion for Tech to have a good season.
  • Brian Klein — After struggling the opening weekend, Klein bounced back big with two home runs against New Mexico State. Then against USTA, he had two RBIs in the first game, and two walks in the third game.
  • Davis Martin — Martin continues to dominate, as he kept his ERA at zero with 5 IP, five strikeouts and only three hits. He had a low pitch count, but likely got replaced to give other guys work and not wear him out before Big 12 play or the NCAA tournament.
  • John McMillon  Through the first two starts, Tadlock is looking smart moving McMillon to the rotation. Against UTSA, he allowed zero runs on just three hits and three walks, striking out six batters in the process. He had only 70 pitches in six innings of work.
  • Kurt Wilson — The freshmen took over right field this past week and doesn’t look like he wants to give it back. Wilson had an OBP of .500 with seven RBIs in four games. He was keeping Tech in the game offensively.
  • Bullpen — Hats off to the bullpen. In 10 innings of work against NMST and the first two games against USTA, they allowed zero runs and just seven men on base with eight strikeouts. Caleb Kilian, Caleb Freeman, Ty Harpenau, Nick Candelari, Dave Haveman and Jose Quezada all pitched scoreless outings.
  • Gabe Holt  Another strong week and weekend for the freshman. He went 7 for 15 with five runs scored and two RBIs. He also had an OBP of .555 and three stolen bases.

Chutes

  • Josh Jung — Jung did well against NMST, but had maybe one of the worst weekends statistical wise I’ve seen from him at Tech. He went 0-8 with three K’s, a double play and made an error. Unheard of from him. He’ll be fine, ball players have bad weeks.
  • Clay Koelzer — The sophomore struggled with the bat this week, as he went 0 for 11 in the first three games and recorded a passed ball. He slipped down the batting order a little bit this weekend.
  • Cameron Warren — After a good opening weekend, Warren didn’t do so hot the second weekend. He went 1-10 with one RBI last week. However, he did show a good glove during the time.
  • Erikson Lanning  Had a lot of hope for Lanning, but unfortunately he had a rough first two starts. He failed to get out of the third inning once again, although he didn’t give up any earned runs this time around. He may be fighting for a Sunday spot this weekend if Shetter performs well against South Alabama as well.
  • Extra Base Hits — Against UTSA, Texas Tech failed to gather big hits. They only had three extra base hits all weekend. Luckily, the pitching staff was on for the Red Raiders most of the weekend and the Roadrunner pitchers couldn’t find the strikezone in the final game.

Big 12 (Rankings by USA Today Coaches Poll last weekend):

  • No. 4 TCU — The Horn Frogs played a Long Beach State team that won their regional and were a game away from the College World Series last year. After dropping game one, TCU won game two and three to take the series. Good weekend for them.
  • No. 20 Texas  The Longhorns were off to a terrible start with a blowout loss, then a five run lead turned into a five run loss, but made up for it in the finale. Wouldn’t call taking one of three at No. 9 LSU a victory, but definitely not a defeat. Bullpen does have issues, though.
  • Oklahoma  The Sooners had their ups and downs after a 3-1 weekend. The bright side? They defeated an NCAA team in Holy Cross twice. Down side? They got whipped by a Valparaiso team that struggled last season with a below. 500 record and had to go to extras to defeat them on Sunday.
  • Baylor  The Bears nearly took a series at No. 14 UCLA, but fell just short in the rubber match. Shea Langeliers and Troy Montemayor are two names to look out for this season. Baylor is going to be hard match in the Big 12 series opener.
  • West Virginia  The Mountaineers walked away with more losses than wins once again. They lost twice to a VCU team that won their conference, but didn’t make the NCAA tournament. They also fell to Coastal Carolina. Outside of their Illinois win, offense seems to be a problem.
  • Oklahoma State  The Cowboys didn’t play two of their games due to weather, but won twice against a Marist team that nearly won the MAAC conference and made the NCAA tournament. Will get a real test next weekend when they travel to face Arizona State.
  • Kansas  The Jayhawks defeated Northwestern 2-1 in a three game series this past weekend. Northwestern was an average team in the Big 10 last season, so it’s a solid win for Kansas. They have won their first two series this season.
  • Kansas State — The Wildcats defeated Elon and then won the series against Old Dominion, who finished second in Conference USA last season. Lot of high scoring games, as it appears the Wildcats will rely on offense again this season.

Once again, if you have questions, please don’t hesitate to ask.

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