1. The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5, 3-4)
Bad Guys: Kansas State Wildcats (4-6, 2-5)
When to Watch: Saturday, November 17th @ 2:30 p.m.
Where to Watch:Bill Snyder Family Stadium | Manhattan, Kansas
How to Watch: ESPNU | WatchESPN
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | TuneIn App
The Line: Texas Tech -6.5 (OddsShark)
Weather:
2. Uniform Tracker
3. The Big Storyline
When I looked at the last two games on the schedule, I was kinda afraid that they weren’t going to tell us where the program is in terms of making a decision about Kliff Kingsbury and whether or not he would be retained. I thought that the three game stretch that Texas Tech just played would tell us everything we need to know and to a certain extent, that was accurate. The problem with this line of thinking is that two of the three games were toss-up games and could have gone either way, Iowa State and Texas, while the Red Raiders were not favored to beat the Sooners in most situations. Texas Tech would end up losing all three games, close games, and here we are with what is likely a situation where it comes down to Kliff Kingsbury coaching for his job yet again as the season winds down.
I don’t know that Kingsbury will admit it like he did last year, but beating Kansas State and Baylor I think are absolutely necessary in order for him to retain his position as the head coach. Anything short of two wins, I think tells us everything that we probably don’t want to know. I always link to ESPN’s FPI and CFA’s projections and don’t normally discuss Bill Connelly’s projections in his statistical profiles and Texas Tech has an 81% chance of winning this game and he’s projecting a 14.9 margin of victory against Kansas State, while Connelly’s projections also include an 78% chance of beating Baylor by 13.6 points. This isn’t just me thinking that Texas Tech should absolutely win these games, but rather every statistical profile thinking that the Red Raiders should win handily for the next two weeks.
One way or another, I’m somewhat ready to have an answer here.
4. Keys for Texas Tech
- Stop Alexes. that’s right, quarterback Alex Delton is expected to get the start and running back Alex Barnes has been the best part of the Kansas State offense this year. Delton has been injured some this year and Skylar Thompson has played more snaps, but from all indications, Delton should get the start. Delton isn’t great by any means, completing 55% of his passes, they’re almost always deep passes, 12.6 yards per completion. Delton also has a propensity to get sacked, a 16.7 sack rate and doesn’t have a great touchdown to interception ratio, 2:2. Delton’s biggest advantage is that he’s a runner, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but the truth is that Thompson is by far the better runner, who averages 6.6 yards per carry. Barnes has 1,031 yards this year and averages 5.3 yards per carry and has 11 touchdowns. That’s the biggest part of the offense and if you can stop these two guys, you’re most likely going to win pretty easily.
- Excel at special teams. When podcasting this past week with Grant Thome, he mentioned the special teams difference, something that’s normally been in favor of Kansas State in prior years. This year, Kansas State is ranked 99th in Special Teams S&P+, while Texas Tech is 4th overall. The Red Raiders have a distinct advantage here and I hope it plays through in this game. The Wildcats really don’t do anything in special teams very well (which leads a lot of Wildcat fans to question Bill Snyder’s succession plan of having his son, the special teams coach, take over for him). Grant has often mentioned the special teams as a deciding factor and I typically brush it aside, but more times than not, it’s come back to haunt Texas Tech. Let’s not brush this aside this week.
- Force third downs. These stats almost don’t make any sense, but if you get Kansas State in third and long, they’re converting 28%, which is good for 40th in the nation, but what about third and medium and third and short? It’s terrible and that seems so un-K-State. The Wildcats are 104th in the nation in third and medium and 120th in third and short. Maybe the key here is that they’ll complete the big pass, but grinding out the yards on the offensive line isn’t where it’s at? And that makes some sense, Kansas State is 119th in Rushing S&P+ and pretty terrible in just about every running category except that they’re in the top third in explosive plays. But grinding out yards . . . not so much, and the same can be said for third downs.
- Run the danged ball. As bad as the Kansas State running game is, their running defense is just as bad, 115th in Rushing S&P+ and the only thing that they’re good at, ironically, is stopping big plays. I don’t know that they’ll be able to stop Jett Duffey, and I know that Don Williams mentioned the running game being down, but I thought that last week, the running game was okay . . . if you include the screen game, which I’ve somewhat always done. If you consider the running backs and their total yards from scrimmage, then I think that’s the right idea. Last week, Da’Leon Ward had 41 yards on 10 carries rushing while he also caught 7 for 49 receiving and that’s a decent day, 100 yards on 17 touches. Add in Duffey’s ability to scramble, and I think the running back position is more productive than you think and it was better last week.
5. What to Watch
The first highlight is a K-State field goal that isn’t good and I don’t know what to say because the next highlight is an Kansas field goal that is good . . . the next play is a nice play, a zone read (of course) and some nice blocking by the fullback and the offensive lien for a nice touchdown . . . the next play is a nice play-action play that looks like Kansas had covered well, but the quarterback just makes a nice throw for the 1st down . . . inside the 3 yard line, a wildcat play (that’s kinda funny) with 3 tight ends, no quarterback and a fullback and I’ll give you three guesses, the first two are wrong, as to what they’re gonna do right here . . . wait and follow the blocks . . . the Kansas State defense is in zone coverage and just lets one go and they’re late getting to where they need to be . . . Another K-State wait and see play in the wildcat on 4th and 2 and there was no reason for that running back to try to hurdle anyone . . . the next completion is one where the quarterback is just trusting his receiver to make the play because they’re down to Kansas late and have to make a play . . . the quarterback touchdown run is a fantastic example of wait-and-see at its very best, see where the play opens and run to the space, it’s beautiful when it works . . .
The highlights open with video of Baylor’s Matt Rhule walking off the field and I don’t know why . . . the actual first highlight is just a recovery of a Kansas State fumble maybe, but we don’t see the highlight until later and it is a fumbled punt . . . TCU runs a Texas Tech play (yeah, I’m going there, that’s something totally out of Kingsbury’s playbook) . . . nice recognition by the K-State quarterback as the TCU defender falls down and the receiver makes a fantastic play, need to watch out for #4 . . . the two point conversion attempt does not go as planned . . . the fumble on the Kansas State quarterback is just a vicious hit (totally clean btw) . . . Kansas State has Reagor in single coverage over the middle of the field and I don’t think that should be the plan, let’s see if that happens with Antoine Wesley . . . Kansas State goes for it on 4th and goal and the Wildcats have their goal line package, which they score and it is 14-13 . . . K-State misses the extra point . . . the final throw by Kansas State isn’t close to a receiver and it’s game over and TCU wins because Kansas State can’t execute an extra point, which seems so anti-Kansas State . . .
6. Coach’s Corner
We have quotes! Thank you Kansas State. Here’s head coach Bill Snyder on what he thinks that the Wildcats can do better on offense:
“You know, it’s easy to say throw the ball downfield a little bit more, and that could be an answer if we’d throw the ball down the field effectively. That’s the most important. Incomplete passes don’t create big plays for you. I think we have to do a better job at our blocking consistency at our second and third levels. Meaning, off the line of scrimmage and downfield. I think that would help us a great deal. Those probably as much as anything.”
On the improvement of the Texas Tech defense:
“I think that’s what everyone seems to refer to. I don’t think anybody’s inaccurate in that respect. I think they’re a better football team, a better defensive football team. I think that has had as much of an impact on their growth collectively as a team and program as anything. That they’ve done quite well, in terms of improvement in special teams. It doesn’t mean they’re not making headway on the offense. They lead everybody in everything in regards to offense. I concur with what you’re saying. They have become a much better defensive football team in a lot of different ways.”
On playing a team like Texas Tech that has the ability to put up points and yards:
“They can do all of those things. Only one team has held them below, I don’t know, 40 points or so. I think, obviously, the important things, offensively, we’ve got to be able to have some possession time. You take this last ballgame, I think we were far below our average in terms of possession time. Part of that was KU, part of it was because of us. You know the capacity to defend well against big plays; Texas Tech has been pretty good about that. What Texas Tech is really, very proficient at that people don’t see, quite as readily as the fact that they’re really pretty good with the short passing game and a substantial running game that allows them to maintain possession of the ball, move the ball and gain clock time on their own. They haven’t always been a team like that, but the onset of more of a running game has helped them with that. We’ve got to make sure we cannot give up those extended drives, that we can get a few 3-and-outs and consequently, offensively hang on to the football a little bit longer. Eat up some clock, and as a was mentioned a moment ago, get a few of those big plays. But a lot of things go into it, which goes into every ballgame in terms of not getting penalized. We had, what, seven penalties this last ballgame? That didn’t work out in our favor. And not turning the ball over. That’s obvious that we can’t afford to do that. So, a number of things.”
On his seniors:
“I have a great appreciation for all young people in our program. For those who sustain their period of time here, obviously an even greater appreciation. I think they’re young guys and not awful lot of starters in that group and young guys that have been very persistent, young guys that have fortitude and commitment, not just to the program, but to their teammates, which I greatly appreciate as well. Their teammates care a lot about them as well. A lot of good young people.”
On Kliff Kingsbury and Jett Duffey:
“Kliff is a bright young coach and has a tremendous offensive mind. I have not seen his playbook, but if you were to look at it you would probably see anything and everything there is. The offensive approach in the game of football is utilizing everything that you have. They try to recruit to the passing game, I think that is the case a great deal. With the other quarterback, if he is the guy to go, I do not know if he will be. However, if that is the case, then he does bring the capacity to run the ball. Some of it is QB run game and the other is scrambles. This young guy can throw the ball too. There were a couple he had last game where he aired one out 55 yards down the field and if it was an inch left or inch right or forward or backwards, it’s an incompletion, but he dropped it in there. He has the ability to throw the ball as well.”
7. Iconography
Light a Fire: I forgot to do this one last week and I appreciate no one for calling me out and making fun of me. Want to win this game? Don’t turnover the ball. I think with a second week of preparation for Jett Duffey he’s going to be just fine and the Texas Tech offense was good/great against Texas. They were simply better offensively in comparison to the Longhorns, but Duffey couldn’t hold onto the ball. If he holds onto the ball and doesn’t turn it over and everything else plays out according to the chalk, Texas Tech should win against Kansas State easily.
Eraser Wanted: If there’s a bad play and you need someone to make up for it, your receiving group is bordering on great for catch rate, even the wideouts who typically have a lower rate because of the tough passes they have to make on the outside. The “worst” is T.J. Vasher, who is catching at a 66% rate, which is okay, but last week, he caught 89% of the passes thrown his way. He’s finally healthy and I think that makes a big difference. Antoine Wesley is at 70%, which is good, while Ja’Deion High, 79%, KeSean Carter, 81%, Seth Collins, 77%, and Da’Leon Ward, 88%, are in varying degrees of not just good, but great. Duffey’s biggest weapons are not his legs, but his receivers who pretty much catch everything their way.
Needs Repair: Texas Tech has to be great early because I think the emotion of this game will be significant. I think that Jett Duffey is relatively unbothered by whatever is happening around him when it comes to outside distractions. For him, it doesn’t matter if it’s on the road or at home, to reiterate, he just needs to hold onto the ball. However, the longer that you let Kansas State hang around, the more dangerous this game is. Put the Wildcats away as early as possible and they’ll have a very difficult time coming back because they’re just not built that way.
Under the Microscope: The defensive line and linebackers are very much under the microscope this game. That patient running game of Kansas State seems simplistic to stop, but it’s so effective and frustrating to watch. The defensive line rotation and linebackers will be absolutely pivotal to stopping the Wildcats on Saturday. And Texas Tech’s rushing defense has actually been pretty good, 62nd in Rushing S&P+ puts them in the top half of the nation. Not great, but not terrible by any means.
Tacos vs. Burritos Matchup of the Week: Antoine Wesley & T.J. Vasher vs. Duke Shelley & AJ Parker – Wesley and Vasher tower over Shelley (5-9/180) and Parker (5-11/178). The biggest cornerbacks on the team are backup nickelback Johnathan Durham (6-0/190) and Parker and if you ever wanted to exploit a matchup advantage, this would be it. Wesley and Vasher should be virtually unstoppable this week.