Basketball

By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s NCAA Tournament Odds (Elite Eight)

Texas Tech is back in the Elite Eight for a second straight season, following a suffocating performance against Michigan. I apologize for not getting this post up sooner; when the rounds are back to back like this and results aren’t finalized until about midnight, it’s tough to get them up much quicker.

Let’s dive in and start with the remaining eight teams and their BPI ranking. Without many upsets this tournament, there are still some extremely high-level teams remaining.

Team BPI National Rank
1 Gonzaga 23.4 1
1 Virginia 23.3 2
1 Duke 21.3 3
2 Michigan State 20.1 4
2 Kentucky 18.4 6
3 Texas Tech 18.1 7
3 Purdue 17.4 9
5 Auburn 16.1 12

 

KenPom has each team remaining in the following order nationally.

Team Adjusted Efficiency Margin National Rank
1 Virginia 34.2 1
1 Gonzaga 33.4 2
2 Michigan State 31.5 3
1 Duke 30.7 4
3 Texas Tech 29 5
2 Kentucky 27.9 7
3 Purdue 26.9 9
5 Auburn 24.3 11

 

For Texas Tech’s matchup against Gonzaga today, here are the odds that various analytical outlets give Texas Tech to win plus the Red Raiders’ odds in Las Vegas:

  • BPI – 26.2 percent chance to win, expected to lose by 6.8 points
  • FiveThirtyEight – 37 percent chance to win
  • Haslametrics – Gonzaga wins 71.8 to 68.8
  • Las Vegas consensus – Gonzaga favored by 4 points, -200 money line favorite (bet $200 to profit $100, implied odds of 66.7 percent for Gonzaga to win)

Overall, the consensus is that Texas Tech should be able to keep it close but that Gonzaga probably wins this game two out of three times. That’s okay; the Michigan game was supposed to be a tossup and we saw how that turned out. There’s a reason they play the games on the hardwood and not on paper.

As the field has narrowed, it becomes easier to visualize each team’s odds to win the whole thing. Here is how some of the predictors listed above have the national championship race odds headed into the Elite Eight.

ESPN BPI

Team Odds (%)
1 Virginia 32.4
1 Gonzaga 26.8
1 Duke 13.9
2 Michigan State 9.1
2 Kentucky 7.9
3 Purdue 4
3 Texas Tech 3.5
5 Auburn 2.5

 

FiveThirtyEight

Team Odds (%)
1 Duke 23
1 Virginia 21
1 Gonzaga 17
2 Michigan State 9
2 Kentucky 9
3 Purdue 8
5 Auburn 7
3 Texas Tech 7

 

Las Vegas

Team Odds Implied odds (%)
1 Duke +280 26.3
1 Virginia +300 25
1 Gonzaga +375 21.1
2 Michigan State +650 13.3
2 Kentucky +850 10.5
3 Purdue +1000 9.1
3 Texas Tech +1000 9.1
5 Auburn +2000 4.8

Note: The odds listed is what a $100 bet on that team to win the national championship would profit the bettor – so for Duke you’d risk $100 to collect $380 (profit of $280) if they win it all. The implied odds is the rate that bet would need to occur at that payout to break even.

There are some great teams left in this tournament. Texas Tech is one of them. Enjoy the ride and let’s see if the Red Raiders can prove the models wrong once again. Burn the boats!

Comments
To Top