Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 3)

This should be a fun week for a good chunk of the Big 12. Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma all play their first Power 5 competition of the season on Saturday. Playing some better competition should hopefully give us some insight into how the conference stacks up. Here’s what the analytics say heading into Week 3.

ESPN’s Football Power Index

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds
Oklahoma 9 19 60.2
Texas 24 11.7 14.6
Baylor 27 10 9
Oklahoma State 28 9.8 8.2
Kansas State 32 7.4 3.9
Iowa State 36 6.1 2.1
Texas Tech 40 5.4 1.8
TCU 51 2.5 0.4
West Virginia 82 -4.2 0
Kansas 118 -15.6 0

 

The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Duke is currently the most average team in the country according to FPI, with a perfectly average FPI of 0.0.

Arizona is ranked 60th nationally in FPI at 1.2, which would place them third from the bottom in the Big 12. Texas Tech’s FPI of 5.4 is their highest FPI so far this season, and is 1.4 below the Big 12 median. Below are Texas Tech’s odds according to FPI for their remaining schedule, including the tilt with Arizona this Saturday.

Opponent
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
@ Arizona 53.6
@ Oklahoma 12.1
Oklahoma State 45.1
@ Baylor 28.9
Iowa State 57.5
@ Kansas 90
@ West Virginia 69.3
TCU 66.4
Kansas State 53
@ Texas 24.9

 

Texas Tech’s average remaining win percentage is just a hair over 50 percent, which makes for a nice and even distribution of their possible records at the end of the season. Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with any given season record that has more than a one percent chance of happening.

 

Record Probability (%)
4-8 4.4
5-7 11.6
6-6 20.4
7-5 24.6
8-4 20.6
9-3 11.8
10-2 4.4

 

SP+

SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Vanderbilt as the most average team in the country with a perfectly average SP+ of 0.0. Arizona’s SP+ is 1.8, good for 63rd nationally. Texas Tech’s SP+ dipped to 8.5 this week, 1.4 points below the Big 12 median.

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 7 24.2
Texas 24 12.6
Baylor 25 12.4
Oklahoma State 27 12.2
TCU 30 11
Iowa State 37 8.7
Texas Tech 39 8.5
Kansas State 41 7.3
West Virginia 78 -1.8
Kansas 114 -14.2

 

Adam McClintock

Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. Below is how he ranks the Big 12. He ranks Arizona 63rd nationally and favors the Red Raiders to win on Saturday by 0.57 points.

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 5
Texas 21
TCU 22
Oklahoma State 27
Baylor 34
Iowa State 47
Texas Tech 51
West Virginia 53
Kansas State 56
Kansas 99

 

Sagarin

Sagarin ratings seem a little bit off the wall to me, but it’s another analytical model worth including here. I want very much to believe Sagarin about Texas Tech and want Sagarin to be wrong about Baylor.

Sagarin pegs Texas Tech as an 83 percent favorite to beat Arizona on Saturday. Arizona ranks 74th nationally with a Sagarin rating of 68.2.

Team National Rank Sagarin
Oklahoma 6 92.75
Baylor 10 88.64
Texas 15 85.62
Texas Tech 19 84.85
Oklahoma State 21 83.18
Kansas State 25 81.78
TCU 42 75.42
Iowa State 49 73.02
West Virginia 75 67.99
Kansas 111 57.25

 

 

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