Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 4)

Texas Tech has a bye this week, but I still wanted to let everyone know how the analytical models view the Red Raiders heading into Week 4. Please note that I don’t think these models take into account Alan Bowman’s injury, so the outlook is probably worse than what is illustrated below.

 

ESPN’s Football Power Index

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds
Oklahoma 7 21.9 69.6
Texas 19 12.2 9.9
Oklahoma State 25 11.2 7.6
Baylor 28 10 5.5
Kansas State 29 9.3 4.3
TCU 35 6.7 1.3
Iowa State 36 6.6 1.4
Texas Tech 46 3.3 0.4
West Virginia 65 -0.2 0
Kansas 99 -9 0

 

The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Fresno State is currently the most average team in the country according to FPI, with a perfectly average FPI of 0.0.

Texas Tech’s FPI of 3.3 is their lowest FPI so far this season, and is 4.7 below (largest deficit this season) the Big 12 median of 8 (highest Big 12 median this season). Below are Texas Tech’s odds according to FPI for their remaining schedule.

Opponent
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
@ Oklahoma 7
Oklahoma State 34.9
@ Baylor 24.1
Iowa State 49.8
@ Kansas 75.5
@ West Virginia 52
TCU 48
Kansas State 40.9
@ Texas 19.5

 

Texas Tech’s average remaining win percentage is 39 percent. Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with any given season record that has more than a one percent chance of happening. FPI lists Texas Tech’s projected record as 5.5-6.5, which squares with the data below.

Record Probability (%)
2-10 1.2
3-9 6.7
4-8 17.1
5-7 25.6
6-6 24.7
7-5 15.8
8-4 6.8
9-3 1.9

 

SP+

SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Northwestern and Vanderbilt as the most average teams in the country with a perfectly average SP+ of 0.0. Texas Tech’s SP+ dipped to 6.2 this week, its lowest mark since preseason, which is 3.9 points (largest deficit this season) below the Big 12 median of 10.1 (highest Big 12 median this season).

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 6 25.8
Oklahoma State 20 14.1
TCU 25 12.4
Texas 28 12
Baylor 29 11.5
Iowa State 35 8.6
Texas Tech 44 6.2
Kansas State 49 5
West Virginia 56 3.3
Kansas 101 -10

 

Adam McClintock

Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. Below is how he ranks the Big 12.

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 5
TCU 19
Texas 21
Oklahoma State 28
Baylor 33
Iowa State 45
West Virginia 46
Kansas State 49
Texas Tech 64
Kansas 96

 

Sagarin

Sagarin ratings seem a little bit off the wall to me, but it’s another analytical model worth including here. I want very much to believe Sagarin about Texas Tech and want Sagarin to be wrong about Baylor.

Team National Rank Sagarin
Oklahoma 7 92.66
Texas 12 87.58
Oklahoma State 14 86.34
Kansas State 21 82.66
TCU 22 82.4
Baylor 33 78.02
Texas Tech 46 74.29
West Virginia 47 73.71
Iowa State 51 72.81
Kansas 95 63.26

 

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