Football

Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 8)

Last Week’s Results

I’ll spare you the lengthy commentary and just say that even though we wagered on a lot of action (407 units between matchups straight up and two-game parlays) the final result was as close to a break even as you can get. We walked away with $20 more than we started despite wagering $40,700 of imaginary money.

  • Week 7 Results: +.2 units (+$20 if betting with $100 units)
  • YTD: +222.93 units (+$22,293)

 

Week 7 Bad Beats

The obvious one for fans of this site was Texas Tech vs. Baylor. If you had the Texas Tech +325 money line, losing that game in the fashion that you did was brutal. It was doubly brutal if you had the points total going under 58. With just 40 points scored during regulation, the final ended up at 63 after double overtime. Unfortunately, you don’t win for getting the spirit of the bet correct.

Shifting to the NFL for probably an even worse beat, I’m very sorry to any bettors who had the Packers -3.5, the over, or the Lions money line on Monday Night Football. The Lions should have won the game were it not for some questionable officiating (sound familiar?). Then the Packers should have won by scoring a touchdown in the final seconds. Instead, their running back took a knee at the one yard line and they kicked a last second field goal. Packers win 23-22 instead of a Lions win or a Packers 27-22 win, which would have cashed the over.

 

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Week 7: 7-5, YTD: 33-27-2

Another decent week for bettors looking for value in big line movements. Here are the big movers this week.

  • Stanford opened -7.5 and is now-3.5 vs. UCLA
  • Georgia Southern opened -2.5 and is now -6.5 vs. Coastal Carolina
  • Cincinnati opened -13 and is now -17.5 vs Tulsa
  • The Boston College/NC State total opened at 58.5 and is now 51.5
  • Wisconsin opened -25.5 and is now -31 vs. Illinois
  • Boise State opened -1.5 and is now -7 vs. BYU
  • Boise State/BYU’s total opened at 54 and is now 45.5
  • New Mexico/Wyoming’s total opened at 55.5 and is now 48.5
  • Oregon/Washington’s total opened at 56 and is now 49.5
  • Appalachian State opened -18.5 and is now -15 vs. ULM
  • FIU opened -20.5 and is now -24 vs. UTEP

 

From The Hip

Week 7: 3-1, YTD: 16-12-1

A solid rebound from going 0-4 two weeks ago. Here’s what I’ve got from the hip this week.

  • Northwestern +28 vs. Ohio State
  • Arizona State +14 vs. Utah
  • West Virginia +33.5 vs. OU
  • Oklahoma State -4 vs. Baylor
  • Texas Tech/Iowa State UNDER 57

 

Week 8 Picks Using Analytics

  • San Diego State -320 vs. San Jose State
  • North Carolina -165 vs. Virginia Tech
  • Stanford -170 vs. UCLA, 2u
  • Syracuse +145 vs. Pitt, 2u
  • Toledo +100 vs. Ball State, 2u
  • Boston College +150 vs. NC State
  • Georgia State +180 vs. Army
  • Kent State +250 vs. Ohio
  • Kansas State +150 vs. TCU
  • Maryland +180 vs. Indiana, 2u
  • Hawaii +125 vs. Air Force, 2u
  • Washington +120 vs. Oregon
  • Michigan +270 vs. Penn State
  • Duke +135 vs. Virginia
  • Mississippi State +750 vs. LSU
  • Old Dominion +600 vs. UAB
  • Purdue +700 vs. Iowa
  • UNLV +550 vs. Fresno State
  • Bowling Green +325 vs. Central Michigan
  • MTSU +260 vs. North Texas
  • Akron +700 vs. Buffalo
  • New Mexico +900 vs. Wyoming
  • Florida State +110 vs. Wake Forest
  • Nevada +1000 vs. Utah State
  • Marshall +180 vs. FAU
  • UTSA +175 vs. Rice
  • Temple +240 vs. SMU
  • USF +500 vs. Navy

I count 28 matchups and 33 units being wagered straight up. Pairing the 28 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 378 units being wagered for a total of 411 units. Another week with a lot of risk. Kind of a weird mix of a bunch of underdogs in between the +100 and +200 range, and also a handful of big time underdogs in the +700 to +1000 range. Let’s see what happens!

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