Football

Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 9)

Last Week’s Results

Here’s some advice: if you do gamble, and you ever find yourself ahead, stop. Heading into Week 8, we were up 222.93 units for the season. After a disastrous weekend, we are now down 84.63 units overall. We lost 307.56 units in the blink of an eye. It was a very bad, no good, truly awful weekend of college football gambling if you went based on the analytics.

  • Week 8 Results: -307.56 units (-$30,756 if betting with $100 units)
  • YTD: -84.63 units (-$8,463)

 

Week 8 Bad Beats

This might be the worst beat of the year. Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina’s total was 53. The score was tied 10-10 at the end of regulation. Then the two teams scored 37 more points in overtime, and the over cashes with 57. I would never gamble again if I had the under on that one.

The Texas Tech and Iowa State total was 57. I picked the under. The total was 58. This is why I never gamble.

 

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Week 8: 9-2, YTD: 42-29-2

A great week if you went against the big line movements, and a solid season overall to date. Here are the big movers this week.

  • Liberty opened -4 and is now -7.5 vs. Rutgers
  • Utah opened -18 and is now -21.5 vs. Cal
  • Iowa State opened -7 and is now -10.5 vs. Oklahoma State
  • Oklahoma opened -19 and is now -23.5 vs. Kansas State
  • TCU opened -2.5 and is now +1 vs. Texas
  • Pitt opened -2 and is now -5.5 vs. Miami
  • Texas Tech opened -8 and is now -3.5 vs. Kansas

What’s the deal with Vegas and the Big 12? All four Big 12 matchups this weekend swung more than a field goal in one direction or the other.

 

From The Hip

Week 8: 0-5, YTD: 16-17-1

Ouch. I hope you were fading my picks last week. That’s two really bad weeks in the last three, and I’m back below .500 for the season. Let’s see if I can get back on track this week.

  • Houston +14.5 vs. SMU
  • LSU and Auburn OVER 58.5
  • Penn State -6.5 vs. Michigan State

 

Week 9 Picks Using Analytics

  • Texas Tech -185 vs. Kansas
  • Kent State -130 vs. Miami (OH)
  • Rutgers +240 vs. Liberty
  • Auburn +310 vs. LSU, 2u
  • UCLA +155 vs. Arizona State, 2u
  • Kentucky +300 vs. Mizzou, 2u
  • Notre Dame -105 vs. Michigan
  • UMass +290 vs. UConn, 2u
  • Miami +185 vs. Pitt, 2u
  • Stanford -105 vs. Arizona, 2u
  • Houston +450 vs. SMU, 2u
  • North Texas -180 vs. Charlotte
  • Toledo -185 vs. EMU
  • Memphis -380 vs. Tulsa
  • USF -130 vs. ECU
  • Mississippi State +320 vs. Texas A&M
  • Texas State +350 vs. Arkansas State
  • Western Kentucky +180 vs. Marshall
  • Old Dominion +425 vs. FAU
  • Northwestern +325 vs. Iowa
  • Akron +1300 vs. NIU
  • Nevada +440 vs. Wyoming
  • Colorado State +450 vs. Fresno
  • Oklahoma State +310 vs. Iowa State
  • Washington State +425 vs. Oregon
  • Maryland +600 vs. Minnesota
  • Troy +100 vs. Georgia State

I count 27 matchups and 34 total units being wagered on the games straight up. After pairing each of the 27 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 378 units of risk. Total, we’re risking 412 units this weekend which I think is the most all season. Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s wise to have action on this many games. The whole point of using analytics to inform these decisions was to isolate a few games each week. But when you wind up gambling on half the weekend’s games, it seems destined to turn out poorly. I guess we’ll see…

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