Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 11)

Well, the easier part of the schedule was supposed to come for Texas Tech after they made it through the gauntlet of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Iowa State. While Texas Tech’s loss to Kansas was bad enough, Kansas State was impressive in a win over Oklahoma, and TCU looked good beating Texas. The path to a bowl game looks pretty daunting. Here’s what the analytics say about Texas Tech coming off a bye week and heading into Morgantown.

ESPN’s Football Power Index

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Oklahoma 7 22.7 66.8
Iowa State 19 13.3 3.9
Baylor 21 11.1 21.9
Texas 25 10.2 3.2
Oklahoma State 27 9.4 1.6
Kansas State 30 8.6 2.4
TCU 33 8.2 0.3
Texas Tech 58 1.8 0
West Virginia 74 -2.4 0
Kansas 98 -8.3 0

 

The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Boston College and Virginia Tech are the most average teams in the country with an FPI of 0.1 and -0.1, respectively.

Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.

Opponent
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
@ West Virginia 54.1
TCU 39.1
Kansas State 38.5
@ Texas 20.3

 

Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 4.5-7.5. Texas Tech’s bowl chances are down to 15.7 percent according to these figures.

Record Probability (%)
3-9 14.7
4-8 36.2
5-7 33.3
6-6 13.6
7-5 2.1

 

SP+

SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has FAU and Maryland at 0.2 and Virginia Tech at -0.2 as the most average teams in the country.

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 4 28.8
Baylor 15 19.3
Iowa State 18 17.5
Oklahoma State 26 12.3
TCU 30 11.1
Kansas State 32 10.8
Texas 33 10.2
Texas Tech 47 4.6
West Virginia 88 -4.9
Kansas 95 -5.6

 

Adam McClintock

Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He gives Texas Tech a 46 percent chance to beat West Virginia and has the Red Raiders pegged as 1.5-point underdogs.

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 7
Texas 20
Iowa State 22
TCU 23
Oklahoma State 28
Baylor 29
Kansas State 38
West Virginia 60
Texas Tech 63
Kansas 98

 

Sagarin

Team National Rank Sagarin
Oklahoma 6 93.13
Baylor 17 84.07
Texas 20 83.13
Iowa State 21 83.1
Oklahoma State 22 82.85
Kansas State 24 81.35
TCU 29 79.01
Texas Tech 55 72.25
West Virginia 61 71.29
Kansas 90 63.96

 

Sagarin’s prediction for Texas Tech-West Virginia is identical to McClintock’s; Texas Tech has a 46 percent chance to win and is a 1.5-point underdog.

 

Las Vegas

The oddsmakers in Vegas also have this game as a toss-up for all intents and purposes. Tech opened at -2 or -1.5 depending on the book, and is at -1.5 just about everywhere. So the analytics slightly favor West Virginia for the most part while Vegas gives Tech the nod.

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