Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 11)

Last Week’s Results

I missed Week 10, and for that I apologize. Life just got busy. So this will be catching up from Week 9 and looking ahead to Week 11.

Week 9 Results: -3.45 units (-$345 if betting with $100 units)
YTD: -88.08 units (-$8,808)

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Week 9: 5-2, YTD: 47-31-2

We’ve strung together some good weeks going against the public in Vegas. At 16 picks above .500 for the season to date, that would leave us up about 14.5 units. Here are the big movers this week.

UCF opened -12.5 and is now -17 vs. Tulsa
Purdue and Northwestern’s total opened at 45 and is now 38
Stanford and Colorado opened as a pick ’em and is now Stanford -3.5
BYU opened -20.5 and is now -17 vs. Liberty
Southern Miss opened -8.5 and is now -5 vs. UAB
Troy opened -1 and is now +3 vs. Georgia Southern
Kentucky opened -4 and is now +1 vs. Tennessee
Fresno State opened -2 and is now -6 vs. Utah State

From The Hip

Week 9: 2-1, YTD: 18-18-1

Back to .500, but simply stated, we need to be better moving forward. I’m feeling good this week.

Penn State -6.5 vs. Minnesota
Alabama -6.5 vs. LSU
Kansas State +7 vs. Texas
West Virginia +2.5 vs. Texas Tech (sorry)
Missouri +17 vs. Georgia
Arkansas -1.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Week 11 Picks Using Analytics

Georgia State -135 vs. Louisiana Monroe
Purdue +115 vs. Northwestern
USF +100 vs. Temple
Washington -315 vs. Oregon State
Stanford -170 vs. Colorado
ECU +800 vs. SMU
Georgia Tech +550 vs. Virginia
West Virginia +120 vs. Texas Tech (sorry)
UTSA +170 vs. Old Dominion
Utah State +190 vs. Fresno State
UAB +175 vs. Southern Miss
TCU +110 vs. Baylor
Louisville +200 vs. Miami
UTEP +400 vs. Charlotte
USC +105 vs. Arizona State
Iowa +310 vs. Wisconsin
Florida State +110 vs. Boston College
FIU +295 vs. FAU
South Alabama +250 vs. Texas State

I count 19 matchups and 19 total units being wagered on the games straight up. After pairing each of the 19 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 171 units of risk. Total, we’re risking 190 units this weekend. I really want to lose the West Virginia +120 bet…