Football

Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 11)

Last Week’s Results

I missed Week 10, and for that I apologize. Life just got busy. So this will be catching up from Week 9 and looking ahead to Week 11.

  • Week 9 Results: -3.45 units (-$345 if betting with $100 units)
  • YTD: -88.08 units (-$8,808)

 

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Week 9: 5-2, YTD: 47-31-2

We’ve strung together some good weeks going against the public in Vegas. At 16 picks above .500 for the season to date, that would leave us up about 14.5 units. Here are the big movers this week.

  • UCF opened -12.5 and is now -17 vs. Tulsa
  • Purdue and Northwestern’s total opened at 45 and is now 38
  • Stanford and Colorado opened as a pick ’em and is now Stanford -3.5
  • BYU opened -20.5 and is now -17 vs. Liberty
  • Southern Miss opened -8.5 and is now -5 vs. UAB
  • Troy opened -1 and is now +3 vs. Georgia Southern
  • Kentucky opened -4 and is now +1 vs. Tennessee
  • Fresno State opened -2 and is now -6 vs. Utah State

 

From The Hip

Week 9: 2-1, YTD: 18-18-1

Back to .500, but simply stated, we need to be better moving forward. I’m feeling good this week.

  • Penn State -6.5 vs. Minnesota
  • Alabama -6.5 vs. LSU
  • Kansas State +7 vs. Texas
  • West Virginia +2.5 vs. Texas Tech (sorry)
  • Missouri +17 vs. Georgia
  • Arkansas -1.5 vs. Western Kentucky

 

Week 11 Picks Using Analytics

  • Georgia State -135 vs. Louisiana Monroe
  • Purdue +115 vs. Northwestern
  • USF +100 vs. Temple
  • Washington -315 vs. Oregon State
  • Stanford -170 vs. Colorado
  • ECU +800 vs. SMU
  • Georgia Tech +550 vs. Virginia
  • West Virginia +120 vs. Texas Tech (sorry)
  • UTSA +170 vs. Old Dominion
  • Utah State +190 vs. Fresno State
  • UAB +175 vs. Southern Miss
  • TCU +110 vs. Baylor
  • Louisville +200 vs. Miami
  • UTEP +400 vs. Charlotte
  • USC +105 vs. Arizona State
  • Iowa +310 vs. Wisconsin
  • Florida State +110 vs. Boston College
  • FIU +295 vs. FAU
  • South Alabama +250 vs. Texas State

I count 19 matchups and 19 total units being wagered on the games straight up. After pairing each of the 19 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 171 units of risk. Total, we’re risking 190 units this weekend. I really want to lose the West Virginia +120 bet…

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