Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 12)

Texas Tech rebounded with a much-needed win in Morgantown. It’s still a shaky road to bowl eligibility, but another win on Saturday would leave fans somewhat optimistic. The Kansas and Baylor losses (and to a lesser extent, Arizona) really sting now. It’s easy for fans to say “coulda, shoulda, woulda”, but Tech could pretty easily be 6-3 with a chance to do a little more damage down the stretch.

ESPN’s Football Power Index

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Oklahoma 8 22.2 72.3
Iowa State 16 14.3 0
Baylor 21 11.8 23.3
Texas 23 10.1 2.5
Oklahoma State 24 9.7 1.7
Kansas State 30 8.9 0.3
TCU 33 7.6 0
Texas Tech 51 3.4 0
West Virginia 78 -3.8 0
Kansas 101 -8.6 0

 

The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Western Michigan is the most average team in the country according to FPI, listed at 0.2.

Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.

Opponent
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
TCU 45.6
Kansas State 42.6
@ Texas 24

 

Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 5.1-6.9.

Record Probability (%)
4-8 24.5
5-7 44
6-6 26.3
7-5 5.2

 

SP+

SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Duke and Houston as the most average teams in the country with an SP+ of -0.2. SP+ gives Texas Tech a 39 percent chance to beat TCU and has the Red Raiders as 5-point underdogs.

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 5 27.5
Baylor 18 17.3
Iowa State 21 16.4
Oklahoma State 29 12.1
Texas 31 12.1
TCU 32 11.7
Kansas State 37 9.3
Texas Tech 47 4.3
Kansas 94 -7.3
West Virginia 96 -7.4

 

Adam McClintock

Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He is almost identical to SP+, giving Tech a 40 percent chance to win and lists the Red Raiders as 5-point underdogs.

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 7
Iowa State 19
Texas 20
TCU 27
Baylor 28
Oklahoma State 29
Kansas State 39
Texas Tech 56
West Virginia 71
Kansas 97

 

Sagarin

Team National Rank Sagarin
Oklahoma 9 91.79
Baylor 14 86.28
Iowa State 19 83.61
Oklahoma State 20 83.45
Texas 21 83.22
Kansas State 23 81.83
TCU 31 78.37
Texas Tech 42 74.74
West Virginia 72 68.06
Kansas 89 63.91

 

Sagarin’s prediction is closer to FPI, giving Texas Tech a 46 percent chance to win and lists them as slight 1 or 2-point underdogs.

 

Las Vegas

The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty close to SP+ and McClintock on this one. TCU is a 3-point favorite and is favored as -160 (bet $160 to win $100) on the money line, which are implied odds of 61.5 percent.

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