Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 13)

Last Week’s Results

Simply stated, it was another poor showing this week. As you’ll see below, we are in on a lot of action this week which means one of two things: 1) We have a good week and get closer to even money on the year or 2) We dig ourselves into a really deep hole and show that the analytics don’t lead to good gambling decisions.

  • Last Week’s Results: -69.46 units (-$6,946 if betting with $100 units)
  • YTD: -262.28 units (-$26,228)

 

Biggest Movers in Vegas

Last Week: 6-3, YTD: 59-36-2

Yet another good week using this method. Here are the big movers this week.

  • Nebraska opened -7.5 and is now -4.5 vs. Maryland
  • Iowa opened -12 and is now -15.5 vs. Illinois
  • Minnesota opened -7 and is now -13.5 vs. Northwestern
  • USC opened -10 and is now -13.5 vs. UCLA
  • Washington State opened -15.5 and is now -10.5 vs. Oregon State
  • Arkansas State opened -3 and is now +1 vs. Georgia Southern
  • Virginia Tech opened -1 and is now -4 vs. Pitt
  • UAB opened -1 and is now -6 vs. Louisiana Tech

 

From The Hip

Last Week: 2-5, YTD: 21-29-1

Keep fading, folks. I am not very good at this. Here are this week’s picks:

  • Texas A&M +13.5 vs. Georgia
  • Kansas State +2.5 vs. Texas Tech
  • Navy -3.5 vs. SMU and UNDER 66.5
  • Arkansas +44 vs. LSU
  • Oklahoma -18 vs. TCU
  • Ohio State and Penn State OVER 58

 

Week 13 Picks Using Analytics

  • Louisiana Tech +200 vs. UAB, 2u
  • Houston +125 vs. Tulsa
  • Coastal Carolina +190 vs. ULM, 2u
  • Troy +450 vs. ULaLa
  • Tennessee +160 vs. Mizzou
  • Northwestern +450 vs. Minnesota
  • Duke +250 vs. Wake Forest
  • South Alabama +300 vs. Georgia State
  • UNLV +200 vs/ San Jose State
  • Syracuse +280 vs. Louisville
  • UTEP +230 vs. New Mexico State
  • UCLA +450 vs. USC
  • USF +450 vs. Memphis
  • Texas +180 vs. Baylor
  • San Diego State +125 vs. Hawaii
  • Old Dominion +500 vs. Mid Tennessee State
  • Penn State +700 vs. Ohio State
  • Temple +325 vs. Cincinnati
  • TCU +800 vs. Oklahoma
  • UConn +475 vs. ECU
  • NC State +110 vs. Georgia Tech, 2u
  • Nevada +450 vs. Fresno State
  • Kansas State +115 vs. Texas Tech
  • Wyoming -250 vs. Colorado State
  • Arkansas State -105 vs. Georgia Southern
  • Maryland +170 vs. Nebraska

I count 26 matchups and 29 total units being wagered on the games straight up. After pairing each of the 26 matchups as two-game parlays, that’s an additional 325 units of risk. Total, we’re risking 354 units this weekend.

I hate when the analytics point to this many games. When you’re betting on nearly half of the weekend’s action, there’s almost no way you’ll come out ahead of Vegas. Oh well, at least it’s not real money.

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