Basketball

By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s Season Outlook (Week 6)

My apologies for missing last week’s analytics outlook. Simply stated, life got in the way. But Tech went 3-1 the past two weeks including an unsuccessful but impressive comeback effort in Lawrence, and two tossup wins that have really bolstered the team’s resume; a win against West Virginia in Lubbock and a road win against the Horns.

We’ve eclipsed the halfway mark in Big 12 play, and the Red Raiders still have some favorable matchups ahead. Here’s what the analytics models have to say.

ESPN Basketball Power Index

BPI predicts the margin of victory for a team against an “average” team on a neutral court. Here is how the Big 12 stacks up nationally.

National Rank Team BPI
3 Kansas 17.5
5 Baylor 15.1
9 W. Virginia 14.1
23 Texas Tech 11.5
59 Oklahoma 7.8
70 Texas 6.7
73 Oklahoma St 6.6
74 Iowa St 6.5
95 TCU 5.1
96 Kansas St 5

BPI predicts individual game outcomes as well. Here are Texas Tech’s odds to win each conference game. I’ve added a column showing the difference in predicted win percentage from last week.

Opponent Chance to Win (%)
TCU 86.5
@ Oklahoma St 58.5
Kansas St 87.2
@ Iowa St 56.4
@ Oklahoma 52.8
Texas 82.6
@ Baylor 21
Kansas 37.1

The average remaining win percentage is 60.3 percent, which we can use to calculate the probability of Texas Tech’s final conference record (I excluded possible records with less than a 3 percent chance of happening).

Record Probability (%)
8-10 4
9-9 12.1
10-8 23
11-7 27.9
12-6 21.2
13-5 9.2

Ken Pomeroy

“KenPom” is one of the most widely cited and well respected models for college basketball. Here is how KenPom has the Big 12 through 10 conference games.

National Rank Team KenPom Rating
1 Kansas 30.1
5 Baylor 26.3
7 W. Virginia 24
20 Texas Tech 19
43 Oklahoma 14.4
65 Texas 11
69 Iowa St 10.6
76 Oklahoma St 10.2
79 TCU 9.5
88 Kansas St 8.7

 

Sagarin

Sagarin is a model that predicts outcomes for many sports, including college basketball. Here’s how it has the Big 12.

National Rank Team Sagarin Rating
1 Kansas 93.5
4 Baylor 91.7
18 Texas Tech 86.6
20 W. Virginia 86.3
37 Oklahoma 83.8
57 Texas 81.6
60 Iowa St 81.3
65 Oklahoma St 80.7
82 Kansas St 79.3
83 TCU 79.3

 

Haslametrics

Eric Haslam has a model that predicts outcomes for every team in the country if it were to play any other team in the country on a home court, at a neutral site, or on the road. Here are his score predictions for Texas Tech’s two games this week.

  • Texas Tech 68, TCU 57
  • Texas Tech 68.5, Oklahoma State 62.5

Tourney Talk

  • NET rating: 25
  • RPI rating: 52
  • Bracket Matrix: 8 seed
  • Best Wins: Louisville (NET 7) and West Virginia (NET 10)
  • Worst Losses: DePaul (NET 66) and TCU (NET 73)

Analytics vs. Vegas

As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’ve been tracking how these models’ predictions perform against the spread in Vegas for Texas Tech’s Big 12 games (plus Kentucky). Here’s where they stand heading into this week:

  • Texas Tech ATS: 6-5
  • BPI ATS: 4-7
  • Haslam ATS: 4-7
  • Sagarin ATS: 7-4

To all the analytics haters: you win! You could probably flip a coin and do better than BPI or Haslam. For what it’s worth, Tech opened -11 vs. TCU. BPI has Tech favored by 11.5 and Haslam has Tech favored by 11, so there doesn’t appear to be much value there. Sagarin won’t release its projection until after this is sent for publishing. My two cents? Tech owes TCU some payback for being handed its worst loss of the season in Fort Worth. I expect an inspired and confident effort.

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