Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech Season Outlook (Week 3)

We’re back from the bye with this week’s “By the Numbers.” Simply stated, the analytical models are extremely bearish on Texas Tech following the close call against Houston Baptist. Here’s what they have to say about the Red Raiders and the rest of the Big 12.

 

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Texas 10 20.3 56.2
Oklahoma 13 16.9 26.4
TCU 17 12 9.6
Oklahoma State 22 10.1 4.2
Baylor 26 7.8 1.7
West Virginia 33 6.2 1.1
Iowa State 41 4.6 0.4
Kansas State 43 3.7 0.3
Texas Tech 62 -1.1 0
Kansas 82 -9.7 0

 

Opponent Win Probability (%)
Trend from last week (%)
Texas 8.4 -12.6
@ Kansas State 30.6 -8.9
@ Iowa State 29.4 -5.8
West Virginia 40 -27
Oklahoma 12.2 -8.6
@ TCU 13.4 -14.3
Baylor 29.5 -21.4
@ Oklahoma State 19.3 -8.2
Kansas 78.4 -7.7
Season average 26.12 -11.45

 

It is pretty disheartening to see that Texas Tech doesn’t have better than a 40 percent chance to beat anyone left on its schedule besides Kansas. FPI currently projects the Red Raiders will finish with 3.6 wins and 6.4 losses.

 

SP+

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 9 20.9
Texas 10 20.7
Baylor 23 10.8
Oklahoma State 32 7.3
TCU 33 6.9
Iowa State 37 4.7
West Virginia 42 3.3
Texas Tech 61 -4.8
Kansas State 62 -4.9
Kansas 88 -18.2

 

Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 4
Texas 11
Oklahoma State 23
TCU 33
West Virginia 35
Iowa State 50
Baylor 51
Kansas State 67
Texas Tech 80
Kansas 101

 

McClintock’s model is comparable with FPI and the line in Las Vegas. He gives the Red Raiders a 7 percent chance to win the game and has them pegged as 17-point underdogs.

 

Sagarin

Team National Rank Sagarin Rating
Oklahoma 5 92
Texas 12 88
Oklahoma State 16 85
Baylor 24 81
TCU 27 80
West Virginia 40 76
Iowa State 53 73
Kansas State 55 72
Texas Tech 87 66
Kansas 117 57

 

Sagarin gives the good guys an 11 percent chance of pulling off the upset.

 

Las Vegas

Texas Tech is a 17.5-point home underdog in this one and you can get them at +575 on the money line (risk $100, profit $575 with a win), which is an implied odds of victory of 14.8 percent. It is a rare occasion for the Red Raiders to be such an overwhelming underdog at home, as noted by our very own Tech Hoops Guy:

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