Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech Season Outlook (Game 7)

This week, we’ve all been glued to the latest updates and numbers, trying to figure out who the winner will be. And of course I’m talking about what the analytics say about Texas Tech’s battle for the saddle with TCU.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI)

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Oklahoma 8 18.9 31.9
Texas 12 17.2 30.4
Oklahoma State 15 13.5 15.4
Iowa State 25 10.9 14.9
TCU 26 10.3 0.7
West Virginia 32 7.9 1.4
Baylor 37 7.1 0.1
Kansas State 39 6.3 5
Texas Tech 78 -1 0
Kansas 118 -14.8 0

 

Here’s the remaining game-by-game projection for the Red Raiders. FPI projects a season record of 3.5 wins and 6.5 losses.

Opponent Win Probability (%)
Trend from last week (%)
@ TCU 16.1 -1.5
Baylor 31.6 0.9
@ Oklahoma State 13.7 0.8
Kansas 87.2 1.1
Season average 37.15 0.325

 

SP+

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma State 10 17.5
Oklahoma 11 17.3
Iowa State 18 14.3
Texas 29 10.3
West Virginia 34 7.5
Baylor 47 4.2
TCU 50 3.9
Kansas State 67 -0.5
Texas Tech 94 -6.1
Kansas 119 -16.7

 

Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 5
Texas 12
Oklahoma State 17
West Virginia 32
Iowa State 34
TCU 36
Kansas State 52
Baylor 53
Texas Tech 75
Kansas 117

 

McClintock has Texas Tech as a 10.5-point underdog and gives them a 20% chance to win.

 

Sagarin Ratings

Team National Rank Sagarin Rating
Oklahoma 8 90
Oklahoma State 10 87
Texas 14 86
Iowa State 22 82
West Virginia 26 80
TCU 30 79
Kansas State 35 77
Baylor 46 75
Texas Tech 73 69
Kansas 123 58

 

Sagarin is pretty close to McClintock and FPI, giving Texas Tech a 24% chance to win and has them pegged as 11-point underdogs.

 

Las Vegas

The consensus line in Vegas is TCU -10 and I’ve seen a money line of Texas Tech +265 (implied odds of about 27%). All in all the models and odds makers seem roughly in agreement with one another, giving Texas Tech about a one in four to one in five chance to pull off the upset.

Comments

The Latest

To Top