Preview & Game Day Thread: Baylor vs. Texas Tech

Game Info

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-3, 4-2)
Bad Guys: Baylor Bears (11-0, 4-0)
When to Watch: Saturday, January 16th @ 3:00 p.m.
Where to Watch: United Supermarkets Arena | Lubbock, Texas
How to Watch: ESPN | WatchESPN
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | TuneIn App
The Line: Baylor -4.5

Advanced Stats

KenPom 12 2
KP AdjO 27 4
KP AdjD 6 3
T-Rank 11 1
T-Rank O 37 4
T-Rank D 5 4
Haslemetric 11 2


POINT GUARD Mac McClung (6-2/185) 15.8 / 2.6*
SHOOTING GUARD Kyler Edwards (6-4/195) 10.4 / 2.9*
SMALL FORWARD Micah Peavy (6-7/215) 5.9 / 2.9
POWER FORWARD Kevin McCullar (6-6/195) 11.4 / 6.6
CENTER Marcus Santos-Silva (6-7/245) 8.9 / 6.0
SIXTH MAN Terrence Shannon, Jr. (6-6/210) 13.6 / 5.0
SEVENTH MAN Jamarius Burton (6-4/205) 4.47 / 1.9
EIGHTH MAN Tyreek Smith (6-7/220) 2.9 / 2.3
NINTH MAN Chibuzo Agbo (6-7/215) 1.7 / 0.9
TENTH MAN Clarence Nadolny (6-3/190) 1.7 / 0.8
ELEVENTH MAN Vladislov Goldin (7-0/240) 2.8 / 1.3
TWELTH MAN Avery Benson (6-4/195) 1.7 / 1.1
POINT GUARD Davion Mitchell (6-2/205) 11.5 / 6.4*
SHOOTING GUARD Jared Butler (6-3/195) 16.4 / 5.4*
SMALL FORWARD MaCio Teague (6-4/195) 15.6 / 4.2
POWER FORWARD Mark Vital (6-5/250) 5.2 / 5.3
CENTER Flo Thamba (6-10/245) 4.1 / 4.9
SIXTH MAN Jonathan Tchatchoua (6-8/245) 9.0 / 7.2
SEVENTH MAN Matthew Mayer (6-9/225) 9.3 / 3.6
EIGHTH MAN Adam Flagler (6-3/180) 10.1 / 1.7
NINTH MAN L.J. Cryer (6-1/185) 6.4 / 0.9
TENTH MAN Zach Loveday (7-0/215) 3.1 / 1.6

* Assists.

Starting 5

1. Stats. Baylor is elite. Incredibly elite at almost every offensive category. Baylor is a terrific shooting team, including 5th in eFG% and 6th in offensive rebounding, so they are going to attack the basket and they are going to shoot really well most likely. And Baylor also doesn’t turn the ball over very much, 59th in turnover percentage. What Baylor is really grat at, which opens everything up, is that they are 3rd in the nation in three-point percentage, 43% on the year. On the defensive side of things . . . they are also elite, 45th in eFG% and they are elite at forcing teams to turn the ball over, 3rd in the nation.

2. Scouting. Butler, Teague, Mitchell, and Flagler are all high-end offensive players. All guards that shoot the three-point shot above 40%, so there’s no letting up at the perimeter. Butler and Mitchell are high assist players, Mitchell is a bit prone to turn the ball over, and I’d also add that they are elite inside the arc as well, all four shooting above 50%, with Mitchell and Flagler shooting above 60%. It’s sickening. Tchatchoua is an elite rebounder and you are going to hear a lot about how Tchatchoua hasn’t played many games (something like 70 games played ever), but he’s really good. I also want to add that Mayer and Cryer are also elite shooters too.

3. How They Match Up. Usually when I do this, there’s some sort of statistic that I can gleam where Texas Tech has an advantage and Baylor doesn’t really have one. Baylor has blown out pretty much everyone, and the only game where Baylor has struggled was against Iowa State and they just didn’t shoot very well, 4 of 19. In a real-world perspective, Texas Tech employers three mid-sized forwards that get a chunk of the minutes, Peavy, McCullar, and Shannon, and McCullar has found a way to take advantage of those sorts of match-ups, but would like for Peavy and Shannon to maybe do the same thing. I think Peavy tries, but he’s in a funk offensively, and Shannon would be better suited to not take so many three-point shots.

4. Tweet of the Day.

5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:

The Red Raiders (11-3, 4-2 Big 12) are coming off a 79-77 win at No. 4 Texas on Wednesday where Mac McClung hit the game-winning basket with three seconds to play, while the Bears (11-0, 4-0 Big 12) are playing for the first time since last Saturday’s win at TCU after their game against No. 13 West Virginia that was scheduled for Tuesday was postponed.

Tech earned its first win at a top-5 team in program history with the win at Texas and now has the opportunity to knock off top-5 opponents in back-to-back games for the first time also. The Red Raiders earned a win over Baylor on Feb. 13, 2017 when the Bears where ranked No. 4 nationally and have two home wins over teams that were ranked No. 2 with victories over SMU (1/26/1985) and West Virginia (1/13/2018). Tech was 0-2 against BU last season with the Bears ranked No. 4 in both matchups.


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