Preview & Game Day Thread: Utah State vs. Texas Tech

Game Info

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-10)
Bad Guys: Utah State Aggies (20-8)
When to Watch: Friday, March 19th @ 12:45 p.m.
Where to Watch: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hal | Bloomington, Indiana
How to Watch: TNT NCAA
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | TuneIn App
The Line: Texas Tech -4

Advanced Stats

TEXAS TECH UTAH STATE
KenPom 23 40
KP AdjO 33 112
KP AdjD 24 8
T-Rank 18 38
T-Rank O 27 110
T-Rank D 21 10
Haslemetric 15 38

Lineups

TEXAS TECH
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Mac McClung (6-2/185) 15.7 / 2.2*
SHOOTING GUARD Kyler Edwards (6-4/195) 10.0 / 2.7*
SMALL FORWARD Micah Peavy (6-7/215) 5.8 / 3.2
POWER FORWARD Kevin McCullar (6-6/195) 10.1 / 6.1
CENTER Marcus Santos-Silva (6-7/245) 8.5 / 6.5
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Terrence Shannon, Jr. (6-6/210) 12.7 / 4.1
SEVENTH MAN Jamarius Burton (6-4/205) 4.7 / 2.0
EIGHTH MAN Tyreek Smith (6-7/220) 2.8 / 2.6
NINTH MAN Clarence Nadolny (6-3/190) 1.9 / 1.0
TENTH MAN Chibuzo Agbo (6-7/215) 1.9 / 0.7
ELEVENTH MAN Vladislov Goldin (7-0/240) 1.9 / 1.0
TWELFTH MAN Avery Benson (6-4/195) 1.3 / 0.7
UTAH STATE
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Rollie Worster (6-3/200) 9.2 / 3.6
SHOOTING GUARD Marco Anthony (6-5/225) 10.0 / 3.1*
SMALL FORWARD Brock Miller (6-5/200) 8.8 / 1.8
POWER FORWARD Justin Bean (6-7/210) 11.3 / 7.7
CENTER Neemias Queta (7-0/245) 15.1 / 10.0
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Alphonso Anderson (6-6/200) 6.8 / 2.7
SEVENTH MAN Steven Ashworth (6-1/170) 6.3 / 2.7*
EIGHTH MAN Max Shulga (6-4/197) 1.7 / 1.9
NINTH MAN Trevin Dorius (7-0/240) 2.0 / 2.7
TENTH MAN Sean Bairstow (6-8/190) 3.7 / 1.1

* Assists.

Starting 5

1. Stats. Utah State isn’t great offensively, top third in the nation and a large part of that is because they are a huge offensive rebounding team, 16th in the nation in offensive boards and that alone is why Utah State is in the top third in terms of offense. The Aggies aren’t a great shooting team, 180th in eFG%, more specifically they are 176th in 3-point percentage and 177th in 2-point percentage. So that’s the bottom third of teams or so. The Aggies are also prone to turn the ball over, 210th in turnover percentage and they do not go to the line hardly at all, 230th in free throw percentage.

Defensively, Utah State is just fantastic. Utah State allows teams to take horrible shots, 17th in the nation in opponent eFG% and their opponent 2-point percentage is 4th in the nation. That’s sort of insane. Utah State isn’t as good on the perimeter, 133rd in opponent 3-point percentage. Utah State doesn’t allow teams to grab offensive boards at all, 5th in the nation, and they don’t allow teams to shoot free throws, 47th in the nation. And to top it all off, the Aggies are 8th in the nation in block percentage. Whew!

2. Scouting.

  • Queta is fantastic in almost every way. He’s got 45 dunks on the year and makes 66% of his close 2-point shots. He’s dominant in terms of rebounding and blocking shots. He is the guy that does that and he’s absolutely fantastic at it.
  • Bean is the other rebounding fiend, on both ends of the court and he’s a fantastic shooter in almost every way except from deep where he only makes 26% of his three-point attempts.
  • Miller is the best shooter of the bunch, but not a great shooter. Miller shoots a ton of 3-pointers, 149 on the year, but only makes 37%, which isn’t bad, but not great either. Regardless, he’s going to shoot a bunch of them. That’s what he does.
  • Worster and Ashworth are your assist guys and they don’t shoot particularly well, Worster only makes 26% of his three’s, while Ashworth is better, making 37%.

3. How They Match Up. Texas Tech’s biggest advantage is that they are better offensively than Utah State. Texas Tech’s offensive game is inconsistent, at least for me, especially in terms of shooting and a lot of what Utah State does really well is something that Texas Tech has a difficult time adjusting to. I consider how the Longhorns’ two jumping jack 5’s were a real problem for Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament and Utah State only has one of them, but he’s elite at it. I would think that Utah State struggles when they don’t shoot the three very well. I’d also add that teams that do shoot well from deep do very well against Utah State. That’s not necessarily Texas Tech’s game though.

Utah State goes 7 deep. They are a tall lineup with the smallest guy being the 7th guy, Ashworth and he’s more pure point guard than anything on the roster.

Texas Tech should have some advantages in terms of quickness and I’d have to guess that this is Utah State’s tradeoff in that they can’t guard the perimeter, but they’ll be a meatgrinder with everything inside. I think that Texas Tech will have to be inventive in terms of scoring inside because I’m thinking that Santos-Silva isn’t going to get a ton of shots off with Queta guarding him. Texas Tech has figured out ways to score, but they’ll need to pull Queta away from the rim.

4. Tweet of the Day.

5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:

The Red Raiders (17-10) are coming off a 67-66 loss to No. 9 Texas in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals last Thursday, while the Aggies (20-8) have won six of their past seven games but fell 68-57 to San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament finals. The TTU-Utah State winner will advance to the second round to play the winner of the No. 3 Arkansas and No 14 Colgate matchup which is at 11:45 p.m. on Friday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Mac McClung leads the Red Raiders with 15.7 points per game this season, while Terrence Shannon, Jr. is scoring 12.7 per game. Kevin McCullar and Kyler Edwards are both at 10 points per game to give Tech four double-digit scorers going into the national tournament. Marcus Santos-Silva, who is the lone senior on the team and played in the 2018 NCAA Tournament with VCU, leads TTU with 6.5 rebounds per game and 1.2 blocks. Edwards lead Tech with 2.7 assists per game and has the most tournament experience on the team after playing as a freshman during the run to the national championship final. A junior from Arlington, Edwards scored 12 points with two 3-pointers in the title game against Virginia. Avery Benson, Edwards and Santos-Silva are the three players on the TTU roster with tournament experience. Benson was on the Elite 8 team and played in game against Buffalo and Michigan in the 2019 tournament.

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