Preview & Game Day Thread: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

Game Info

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (18-10)
Bad Guys: Arkansas Razorbacks (23-6)
When to Watch: Sunday, March 21st @ 5:10 p.m.
Where to Watch: Hinkle Fieldhouse | Indianapolis, Indiana
How to Watch: TNT | NCAA
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | TuneIn App
The Line: Texas Tech -1.5

Advanced Stats

TEXAS TECH ARKANSAS
KenPom 14 13
KP AdjO 31 35
KP AdjD 19 11
T-Rank 14 21
T-Rank O 30 45
T-Rank D 19 12
Haslemetric 10 18

Lineups

TEXAS TECH
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Mac McClung (6-2/185) 15.8 / 2.1*
SHOOTING GUARD Kyler Edwards (6-4/195) 10.1 / 2.7*
SMALL FORWARD Micah Peavy (6-7/215) 5.9 / 3.1
POWER FORWARD Kevin McCullar (6-6/195) 10.1 / 6.2
CENTER Marcus Santos-Silva (6-7/245) 8.4 / 6.5
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Terrence Shannon, Jr. (6-6/210) 12.6 / 4.0
SEVENTH MAN Jamarius Burton (6-4/205) 4.5 / 1.9
EIGHTH MAN Tyreek Smith (6-7/220) 2.7 / 2.3
NINTH MAN Clarence Nadolny (6-3/190) 1.9 / 1.1
TENTH MAN Chibuzo Agbo (6-7/215) 1.9 / 0.7
ELEVENTH MAN Vladislov Goldin (7-0/240) 1.9 / 1.0
TWELFTH MAN Avery Benson (6-4/195) 1.3 / 0.7
ARKANSAS
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Davonte Davis (6-3/180) 7.7 / 2.2*
SHOOTING GUARD Jalen Tate (6-6/175) 10.5 / 3.9*
SMALL FORWARD Moses Moody (6-6/205) 17.2 / 5.8
POWER FORWARD Justin Smith (6-7/230) 13.6 / 7.1
CENTER Connor Vanover (7-3/247) 6.3 / 4.5
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN JD Notae (6-1/195) 13.3 / 2.1*
SEVENTH MAN Desi Sills (6-1/202) 8.1 / 2.6
EIGHTH MAN Jaylin Williams (6-10/245) 3.7 / 4.5
NINTH MAN Ethan Henderson (6-8/210) 1.3 / 1.4
TENTH MAN – (-/-) – / –

* Assists.

Starting 5

1. Stats. Arkansas is very good offensively because they are good at things, but not great at things, i.e. they are consistent across the board. The Razorbacks are 100th in eFG%, 85th in turnover rate, 66th in offensive rebounding and 130th in free throw rate. Again, not great, but very good at all of those things. Digging down a bit more, Arkansas isn’t a great three-point shooting team, 164th in three-point percentage and 88th inside the arc.

Defensively, Arkansas is elite, similar in that the things that they are good at end up making them cumulatively very good. UA is 62nd in opponent eFG%, 72nd in forcing opponent turnovers, 109th in allowing opponent offensive rebounds, and 122nd in free throw rate. What Arkansas ends up being really good at is 2-point shots, 61st in the nation and are 22nd in the nation in block rate. I always find that opponent free throw percentage, something that Arkansas is 52nd in the nation, a direct relation of their opponents, but that’s their best statistic. Teams don’t make free throws against them.

2. Scouting.

  • Moody is a game-changer for a freshman. Heck even if he’s not a freshman he’s a game-changer. He’s a low-turnover, scorer that doesn’t require the ball in his hands and shoots well enough that teams have to respect him. He scores from just about everywhere and certainly not a one-dimensional scorer.
  • Smith is clearly the next best player, a tenacious rebounder, another guy that doesn’t require the ball in his hands to score, isn’t a great free throw shooter, but scores a ton of his buckets inside. Not a three-point threat.
  • Notae is basically the starter in playing time as Vanover played less than 10 minutes against Colgate. Noate is tenacious defensively and he’ll take a ton of three-point shots. He’s a volume shooter and makes 33%, which isn’t great, but that’s what he does.
  • Tate is the best passer of the bunch, but is also prone to turn the ball over, and is probably the team’s best shooter. A lot like Moody, he scores from all over and isn’t one-dimensional.

3. How They Match Up. I noted above that despite having a 7’3″ center, Vanover doesn’t really play a ton and Noate is basically your starter. The Razorbacks basically go 6, maybe 7 deep, so that’s who is going to play the majority of minutes. Texas Tech has been pretty terrible at permitting opposing teams to shoot free throws, but that’s not necessarily Arkansas’ strength. I’m expecting this to be a really fun game, a game of opposing styles, Arkansas is a volume offensive team while Texas Tech is not that at all. I’ll be curious to see how Arkansas deals with being patient. In terms of size, I think both teams are really similar and I don’t see many significant holes in either lineup that can really be exploited. The obvious one would be Vanover, and maybe he gets more time against Texas Tech, but we’ll see.

4. Tweet of the Day.

5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:

No. 21 Texas Tech will play No. 10 Arkansas in the 2021 NCAA Tournament Second Round at 5:10 p.m. (CST) on Sunday at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana with the opportunity to advance to its third straight Sweet 16.

The South Region’s No. 6 seeded Red Raiders (18-10) are coming off a 65-53 win over Utah State in the NCAA Tournament First Round, while the No. 3 seeded Razorbacks (23-6) secured an 85-68 victory over Colgate with both teams pulling away in the second half in close first-half games. Former Southwest Conference rivals, Texas Tech is 40-39 all-time against Arkansas with the last matchup resulting in a 67-64 win by the Red Raiders in the 2019 Big 12/SEC Challenge in Lubbock. TTU is 1-0 against SEC opponents this season with a 76-71 win at LSU on Jan. 30 in Baton Rouge during the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

“They’re an outstanding team,” Texas Tech coach Chris Beard said. “They’re worthy of their high seed. They’ve had a great season. Nothing but respect for Coach (Musselman) and those players. We look forward to the opportunity to play against a great team. I have a lot of pride in the state of Arkansas. Little Rock will always be special to me. Got my first Division I opportunity there, and I just love that state. I follow that program.”

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