Last Week’s Results Simply stated, FPI and Adam McClintock did not do us any favors in identifying good matchups last weekend. We identified 20 games and wagered 21 units on individual games and only collected 12.2 of those units. And to make matters worse, we wagered 190 units in two-game parlays. On those bets, we […]
By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 3)
This should be a fun week for a good chunk of the Big 12. Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma all play their first Power 5 competition of the season on Saturday. Playing some better competition should hopefully give us some insight into how the conference stacks up. Here’s what the […]
Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks (Week 2)
Last Week’s Results The analytics identified A LOT of picks last weekend, and long story short: it got us into some trouble. We made 23 unit bets on 19 individual games betting money lines only (I’m still trying to figure out a system for betting against the spread). After leaving 23 units at the window, […]
By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Outlook (Week 2)
With Week 0 and Week 1 now in the books, the various analytical models now have a sample size (albeit a small one) for each and every FBS team. As you’ll see, things have trended up for Texas Tech in most models after a convincing win over Montana State. Meanwhile, many of their Big 12 […]
Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Picks – Week 1
Last Week’s Results There weren’t many games during “Week 0”, but if you recall we had Hawaii identified as a high value pick against Arizona last weekend. Not only did Hawaii cover the spread, but they won outright, which means we cashed in on their +300 money line. Even better, since two different analytical models […]
Using Analytics to Inform Gambling Decisions
Yesterday, I did a giant preview of Texas Tech and the Big 12 using multiple analytical models. I mentioned that as a hobby, I track how these models perform relative to the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. Let me first say I don’t gamble. So when I write about picks each week, I’m not actually placing […]
By the Numbers: Texas Tech and Big 12 Preview
College football is right around the corner, and you know what that means. Fight songs, tailgates, highlight plays, and spreadsheets. Yes, spreadsheets. Lots and lots of spreadsheets. Last year I took an interest in college football analytics, mostly by referencing ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) for each and every college football matchup every saturday. I […]
By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s NCAA Tournament Odds (Final Four)
History is fun to witness. Texas Tech is playing in the Final Four on Saturday for the first time in school history. It was an unlikely but far from impossible outcome. Before we preview the Final Four, let’s take a look at how likely Texas Tech’s run has been so far. Prior to the beginning […]
By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s NCAA Tournament Odds (Elite Eight)
Texas Tech is back in the Elite Eight for a second straight season, following a suffocating performance against Michigan. I apologize for not getting this post up sooner; when the rounds are back to back like this and results aren’t finalized until about midnight, it’s tough to get them up much quicker. Let’s dive in […]
By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s NCAA Tournament Odds (Sweet 16)
At the beginning of the NCAA Tournament, Texas Tech was given a 65-70 percent chance of reaching the Sweet 16 by various analytical sources. Though by no means a guarantee, thankfully what was likely has indeed come to fruition. The Red Raiders tip off against a very sound Michigan team with many similarities between the […]