Basketball

By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s Season Outlook (Week Nine)

Texas Tech’s recent run has reached six victories in their last seven Big 12 outings, bringing their conference record to 10-4. This, after a three-game skid sent them to 4-3 with nearly everybody thinking their Big 12 title aspirations were done.

With a vast majority of the Big 12 schedule in the rearview mirror, there isn’t much movement in the national BPI rankings, but let’s have a look anyway.

BPI Rank Team BPI
8 Texas Tech 16.3
14 Iowa State 14
17 Kansas 13.7
28 Kansas State 11.8
30 Texas 11.5
37 Baylor 10.3
39 Oklahoma 10.2
42 TCU 9.2
110 West Virginia 3.5
133 Oklahoma State 2.3

 

With four games left in the regular season, let’s see how BPI likes Texas Tech’s odds in each.

Opponent Chance to Win (%)
Oklahoma State 96.7
@ TCU 68.7
Texas 83.5
@ Iowa State 42

 

The average remaining win probability is 73 percent. Each remaining possible season record is outlined with its corresponding probability below. This is much easier to visualize now that we’re near the end of the season than it was earlier on in the year.

Big 12 Record Probability (%)
14-4 28
13-5 42
12-6 23.6
11-7 5.9

 

The Big 12 title race also has some added clarity from this past week, as was expected following the showdown between Kansas and Texas Tech. As you’ll see, Kansas State is obviously in good position to win at least a share, while Kansas’ 15-year run is in serious jeopardy.

Team Chance to win Big 12 Projected Big 12 wins
Kansas State 72% 13.2
Texas Tech 55% 12.9
Kansas 17% 11.9

 

Kansas State’s Outlook

Now that there are two legitimate title contenders and not four or more, below is a breakdown of Kansas State’s remaining odds according to BPI. Their game against Kansas in Lawrence tonight is obviously the toughest, but I wanted y’all to see how they stack up against everyone else left on their schedule.

Opponent
Chance to Win (%)
@ Kansas 28.4
Baylor 72.2
@ TCU 46.4
Oklahoma 71.6

 

Using those odds, one can calculate that Kansas State has a 7 percent chance of winning out, which would block Texas Tech from a share of the title regardless of how the Red Raiders finish. The Wildcats will be favored against Baylor and Oklahoma, but as it stands now they are far from certain wins. The trip to Fort Worth is a coin flip.

My Two Cents

Seth Greenberg was flapping his gums on Twitter about Texas Tech not beating any KenPom top 25 teams prior to Saturday’s victory. KenPom is one metric, but Texas Tech has now beaten eight BPI top 42 teams (Nebraska, Texas, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma twice, Kansas, Kansas State), which is impressive. Anybody casting doubt on if Texas Tech is a good team at this point in the season is being intentionally inflammatory.

Fun fact: dating back to their second matchup in the 2016-2017 season, Texas Tech has outscored Kansas by a total score of 390 to 368 in their last five games.

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