Chapter 1: The Setting

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (0-0, 0-0)
Bad Guys: Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (0-0, 0-0)
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, August 30th @ 6:30 pm
TV & Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -52.5
Weather:

Chapter 2: The Cast

Alonzo Hampton is the head coach for the Lions and he’s coached all over the place, from Oregon to South Florida and Florida State. Most recently he was at ULM as the special teams coordinator and safeties coach. Hampton has been the head coach at Arkansas-Pine Bluff since 2023 and has a 5-18 record, going 2-9 in 2023 and 3-9 in 2024.

Tony Hull is the offensive coordinator, a prior stop at Grambling State, and last year the offense averaged 23 points a game, 115 yards rushing and nearly 220 yards passing per game.

The defense hasn’t been so lucky, giving up nearly 36 points a game, over 218 yards rushing a game and 208 passing yards a game last year.

QB DJ Stevenson (6-3/210): I believe the quarterback will be DJ Stevenson (this is a bit difficult in these times to predict this sort of thing). He played in back-up duty last year for the Golden Lions, so it’s difficult to determine what you might see.

RB BJ Curry (5-9/195): Curry is likely the best player returning with 509 yards rushing last year with 4 touchdowns and 4.14 yards a carry while catching 13 passes for 199 yards out of the backfield.

WR Kareem Burke (6-0/170): Burke was previously at FAMU in 2023 where he caught 16 passes for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns and in 2024 for the Golden Lions he had 8 receptions for 91 yards, but those came in basically the last 4 games of the year.

CB Zach Williams (6-0/170): Williams played well as a freshman cornerback last year, 38 tackles, 1.5 tackles for a loss, 1 interception and 2 passes broken up.

CB Amyrion Mingo (6-0/170): Also a freshman last year, 17 tackles along with 3 interceptions and 1 pass break-up.

Chapter 3: The Conflict

• 65% of the yards came from Arkansas-Pine Bluff passing the ball, yearly 8 yards an attempt and they had 17 touchdowns both passing the ball or running the ball. That’s good for 116 running yards a game and 220 passing yards a game. That’s not necessarily explosive, mostly running the ball. The passing is a bit better, but not by much.
• Defensively, things are not great. They allowed 36 points a game and teams nearly ran for 220 yards a game on them. I would expect the Lions to continue to be a sieve defensively for this game.
• You know what separates Texas Tech and the Big 12 from the rest of the country, at least this year? Veteran quarterback play. The Big 12 has a wealth of veteran quarterbacks and I know that I should feel slighted that Behren Morton wasn’t mentioned in that graphic last Saturday (it’s just fuel), it doesn’t make it any less true in that the wealth of returning signal callers is significant and should not be discounted. We talk about how much the quarterback controls how games are played and there is no conference that has more returning talent under center than the Big 12. I think of all things that’s going to make a significant difference, especially quarterbacks who reduce mistakes and can recognize opportunities. I’d also add that Texas Tech is truly loaded at receiver and tight end, that makes a difference when you want your quarterback to shine, just ask the 4 Colorado receivers who made NFL rosters this week and maybe you can figure out why Sheduer Sanders had so much success in college.
• I will be particularly focused on David Bailey and Romello Height and their ability to set the edge. This is maybe the biggest weakness for both players and I don’t know that their responsibilities will be to do that, but having defensive ends that can get to the passer, but also to funnel everything inside. I’ve tried to google how a Shiel Wood defense is supposed to opearate and other than he’s typically run a 3-4 defense, that’s not exactly what he’s doing here at Texas Tech unless we are calling the DOG, which is Romello Height, Terrell Tilmon, and Cheta Ofili, as outside linebackers (reember, all are listed as being about 240 pounds). A typical 3-4 has a nose guard and two sizeable defensive ends (like 270) and then an outside linebacker that’s a pass rush specialist. Texas Tech clearly has 2 defensive tackles and 2 defensive ends. I don’t think that this matters all that much and in a standard 3-4 a DOG linebacker is typically the strongside linebacker playing the tight end side of things (hence the strongside moniker). And maybe Wood thinks of his 3-4 defense a little differently, the 2 defensive tackles plus the defensive end, the ends are actually quite big, David Bailey is at 250, Charles Esters is 270, and Braylon Rigsby is 275. As you’re watching, maybe focus a bit on if Height, Tilmon and Ofili are lined up strongside.

Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs

There are not real stats to compare with Arkansas-Pine Bluff, so I decided to compare data between Texas State’s offense with Texas Tech’s offense and Houston’s defense with Texas Tech’s defense. The winner in a particular category is shaded. This isn’t to say that one offense is better than another, Texas Tech didn’t have a healthy or non-freshman quarterback for the year and that’s going to have an affect on things.

The defensive chart is quite a bit different, Houston was significantly better in almost every respect. Shiel Wood may believe that stats are for losers (they are decidedly not for losers, they just help paint a picture of what’s happening with a football team), but the stats show that Houston was very good defensively.

Chapter 5: The Conclusion

I don’t know that there’s a lot to be concerned about with this game. I don’t see this game being all that close. APB doesn’t seem to have a player that concerns me all that much, on offense or defense, and I think Texas Tech hs quite a few. I was not expecting a 52.5 spread and although I think that Texas Tech is significantly better, 52.5 seems like a lot and that line hasn’t moved in a day, so that’s probably where it’s going to be at for the game and I don’t think that I’d take Texas Tech to win.

SuperSurvey

References

So often I link to this stuff and I don’t tell you why or how. I thought that with game 1 set to be played, this would be a good time to discuss.

• Sharp College Football: This has been my go-to for a couple of years. The data is great. Easy to use website and 95% of the data that I previously used was here. As of now, the site hasn’t updated for 2025 stats, so a bit of a bummer.
• BCF Toys: A lot is baked into these numbers (as is FPI) and would reference the overall, offense, and defensive numbers. Should probably also utilize the special teams data.
• ESPN FPI: This seems to be more about win projection than anything else, but it is still indicative as to how a team is expected to perform against another.
• KFord Ratings: Just started using this last year. I just use the ratings figures.
• College Football Data: Just found this site and I am 100% certain that I’ll utilize the data for pre-game metrics for sure. There is an item to click on for teams and also box scores, which could be useful after a game, even on Monday.
• ESPN’s QBR: How the quarterback goes is how a team goes, right? I haven’t been tracking this previously, but think I plan on starting and comparing the rating for upcoming quarterbacks.
• NCAAsavant.com: Not certain about this site. May have dated information. It looks great.
• CFB Depth – Team Talent Rankings: This is another new site. Will use the Team Talent Rankings and the depth charts for each team are visually terrific. The one for Texas Tech isn’t totally up to date (there’s no David Bailey or Romello Height, etc.), but it’s still really good and really nice looking website.