Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0, 0-0)
Bad Guys: Oregon State Beavers (0-2, 0-0)
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, September 13th @ 2:30 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -23.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Oregon State
Weather Report: Partly Cloudy, High 87, Low 66
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Maalik Murphy (6-5/234): Murphy started his career at Texas, then transferred to Duke for the 2024 season where he was pretty good, nearly 3,000 yards passing, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions with 7.0 yards per pass. Not a real runner by any means, Murphy will be in the pocket.
RB Anthony Hankerson (5-8/206): Hankerson was at Colorado for two years and last year and this year at OSU. Hankerson is a dual threat, he’ll run pretty well and gets most of the carries as well as catching the ball out of the backfield.
WR Trent Walker (6-2/194): Walker is a Beaver through and through, has been there for 3 years and last year he had 81 receptions for 901 yards and 2 touchdowns, so he gets a ton of touches and thus far this season, that’s still happening.
LB Dexter Foster (6-3/236): A big linebacker and had 7 tackles each game, meaning he’s at the very least active. And he’s only a sophomore an had about 40 tackles last year.
S Skyler Thomas (6-2/212): Another big safety, didn’t get a ton of burn last year, but he started off the year with 9 tackles against Cal and then 6 against Fresno State.
OLB Nikko Taylor (6-5/264): Taylor is listed as a linebacker, but obviously as a rush linebacker and has 2 tackles for loss this early in the season as well as 2 quarterback hurries. Taylor will be the one to watch as my guess is that he’s going to be the guy rushing the passer.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
What is the Oregon State Defense: All of the advanced stats say that the Oregon State defense isn’t that great and all of the things I read are that they actually played well and I’m just not sure. McGuire has preached this week that Oregon State is big and they have size. They run a 4-2-5 with a nickelback in Sailasa Vadrawale as the 5th defensive back who runs 5-10 and 185. Whereas Texas Tech has John Curry as that 5th defensive back. You can see how the size is the biggest difference. Does this mean that a 5’10” guy is going to cover Coy Eakin? That’s going to be a big advantage and then we haven’t even discussed the tight end for Texas Tech and who covers on that end. The cornerbacks are over 6’0″ so from a size advantage, the Texas Tech receivers won’t have an advantage there.
Stay out of 3rd Downs: Statistically, Oregon State is 5th in the nation in 3rd down defense, allowing just 14.29%. Texas Tech has done an excellent job of staying ahead of the sticks and has been big on 1st downs and giving the offense plenty of opportunity to put defenses in a bind. Oregon State is also allowing 6.3 yards per play, which is 103rd, so maybe this is a situation where Oregon State hasn’t had a ton of 3rd down opportunities so the statistic isn’t as bad as it seems. In particular, OSU is allowing 5.4 yards a carry, which is 114th in the nation.
Defensive Backs Will be Tested: Oregon State is throwing nearly 59% of the time, which is 13th in the nation. So they are looking to sling it around. This will be the first offense where the TTU defensive backs will truly be tested. The offensive line is 45th in the nation in sack percentage and is averaging nearly 320 yards passing a game. They run a true 3-receiver offense with a tight end and a single running back (although they have 6 running backs listed on their depth chart).
Video Notes.
Base appears to be the 4-2-5 and I don’t think that Oregon State is tackling real well to start. The first Fresno State touchdown is a Will Hammond dream. Offensively, Oregon State likes to spread you out and will pack things in as well. Walker over the middle is going to be a problem and I think that Murphy likes to throw over the middle based on what we are seeing. Murphy is a pretty good quarterback on the run. Special teams s a disaster, their guy can’t snap the ball, but I bet that gets fixed this week. The return game is ripe if Texas Tech can get the blocking right. Keep those hands inside. The receivers will block down the field.
Mounting List of Players: The availability report is growing more than I’d like. It’s a bit concerning, not necessarily the guys who are out, but I wonder when those guys on the questionable and probable list were even injured, but I suppose that’s why you have depth across the board.
OUT FOR OREGON STATE
Ren Brown Fr. OL
Cash Cleveland So. OL
Charles Esters III Sr. OLB
Holton Hendrix R-Fr. OL
Deante Lindsay Fr. CB
Kasen Long R-Fr. DL
Braylan McDonald Fr. S
DOUBTFUL FOR OREGON STATE
—
QUESTIONABLE FOR OREGON STATE
Romello Height Sr. OLB
Michael Henderson III Fr. RB
Maurion Horn Jr. CB
Lloyd Jones III Fr. QB
Marcus Ramon-Edwards So. S
Ben Roberts Jr. LB
PROBABLE FOR OREGON STATE
Dontae Balfour Sr. CB
Tarrion Grant So. CB
Bryson Jones Fr. WR
A.J. McCarty Sr. S
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats:
Texas Tech’s offense is zooming right now. Again, some of this is still from last year as I sort of expect the explosive drives to be a bit higher, but I still think this is a pretty good offense despite missing 8 minutes of play from the UAPB game. The third down conversion rate is great for Texas Tech and the disruptive play allowed rate is something to keep an eye on, Texas Tech is doing quite well. Oregon State’s issues are running the ball and that disruptive play allowed rate is also something that could be quite beneficial for the Texas Tech defense.
Defensively, I think Texas Tech’s defense is better than these numbers suggest. I can’t say anything about Oregon State necessarily, especially if I don’t think that Texas Tech’s numbers are indicative of much.
The advanced stats maybe tell a bit more for how teams are currently performing. BCF thinks the offense hasn’t been as good, but the defense is performing well. I think next week I’ll add the Kelly Ford offense and defense numbers. The fact that SP+ has Texas Tech so high is something. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen Texas Tech that high and those numbers suggest that Texas Tech’s offense is elite.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
Super Survey
I’m not 100% certain that I know what Oregon State is. I definitely don’t think that they are as bad as their record represents and those special teams issues from last week likely cost them the game. I also don’t like the mounting list of injuries for Texas Tech, especially at cornerback against a very talented passing team. The spread feels to rich for my end of things, 20 points would be a lot and a good win if I’m looking at things.