Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0, 1-0)
Bad Guys: Houston Cougars (4-0, 1-0)
Where: TDECU Stadium | Houston, Texas
When: Saturday, October 4th @ 6:00 pm
TV & Streaming: ESPN
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -11.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Houston
Weather Report: Sunny, High 90, Low 73
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Conner Weigman (6-3/210): The TAMU transfer, Weigman has been pretty good, completing 61% of his passes with 6 touchdowns and just 1 interception, good for 210 yards a game. So he’s not carrying the load, but doing his job. Weigman will scoot on the ground as well, averaging 35 yards a game and good for 2nd in the team rushing the ball.
RB Dean Connors (6-0/206): I think Connors is pretty special and the lead back, averaging 81 yards a game and 4.8 yards per rush with 3 touchdowns. Connors will also do a good job of catching the ball out of the backfield, 10 receptions for 59 yards.
TE Tanner Koziol (6-7/240): A huge target and he leads the team with 23 receptions and 234 yards, 10.2 yards per catch and 2 touchdowns. I mentioned earlier in the week that the Houston offensive coordinator likes to really feature the tight end and that is very true for Koziol who has delivered thus far.
DE Khalil Laufau (6-3/300): Laufau is an absolute stud and don’t let any numbers fool you. Just 15 tackles and 1 sacks with 2 quarterback hurries, if he’s really playing defensive end, some tackle is going to have their hands full.
NT Carlos Allen, Jr. (6-1/295): Allen leads the team with 30 tackles and just 1 forced fumble. Think about how rare it is to have a nose tackle lead the team in tackles, so the interior of the Texas Tech offensive line are going to have their hands full.
CB Latrell McCutchin, Sr. (6-1/185) & CB Will James (6-0/185): Both cornerbacks are outstanding (the entire secondary seems to be pretty good) and McCutchin has 21 tackles with 2 passes defended and a fumble recovery. James only has 11 tackles and 2 passes defended.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
Big Ugly Matchup: The Houston offensive line consists of 4 of 5 transfers and 3 are Big 12 transfers. Baylor left tackle Alvin Ebosele from Baylor, left guard Jason Brooks, Jr. from Oklahoma State, and right tackle Dalton Merryman is a former Red Raider footballer. The lone non-Big 12 transfer is right guard Matthew Wykoff from Cal. I’d add that I think that the left side will be susceptible to a good pass rush, so I think that of the days for David Bailey to have a big game, this very well might be it.
Offensive Line Will Have their Hands Full: The Houston defensive line is actually grading out really well. The stars are Laufau and Allen, bu Eddie Walls III (6-4/250) is a solid defensive end and true freshmen DT Travis Buhake (6-2/264) and DE Reshad Sterling (6-3/250) receive playing time and do well.
Solid Secondary: I mentioned the cornerbacks above and this is a really solid group that probably plays the run better than the pass, but they all are pretty good. And for the record, this is a group entirely made up of transfers. Tulane transfer FS Kentrell Webb (5-11/185), LSU transfer SS Jordan Allen (5-11/200) and Wyoming transfer Star Wrook Brown (5-11/190) are all quite capable.
Morton Has To Change the Narrative: I wrote this basically before the Utah game and I don’t know that Behren Morton changed the narrative. Opportunity #2 is here and it is Houston. At some point, if Texas Tech is going to reach that next gear, and the next gear, and the next, a large chunk of that hinges on Morton performing on the road against tough opponents.
Video Notes: The running back #44 is a load and very difficult to bring down (he’s got some speed too) . . . Weigman will scoot a lot like Will Hammond, he’ll do the zone read and take it and run, so the defense will have to be honest . . . I’m not 100% sold on Weigman’s arm strength . . . A lot like Utah, they have offensive linemen and tight ends that will block and they’re doing some fun things in that respect . . . Houston ran a really obvious pick play with the tight end . . . The Houston defense may be susceptible to run against, especially inside . . . The linebackers lose coverage on running backs coming out of the backfield and Houston appears to struggle with containment . . . The Houston speed option might also be a problem for the defense . . . the Colorado quarterback just throws some really bad passes . . . the punt returner #4 has some juice and wiggle . . . Houston loves the play-action and they use it quite often . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats:
Here we go. All of 2024 is out of the Beta Rank stats, so this is just based off of 2025 stuff. I am a bit surprised that the Houston offense isn’t better, I just sort of had this thought that they were a bit more high-flying. They are better at running the ball than passing by a decent amount. Don’t have a ton of explosive plays, but they are decently (top half) efficient. I would think they would like to convert more on 3rd down, but it’s not a bad rate. The Texas Tech offense is a near-elite passing offense and a pretty explosive one to boot. The running game isn’t great, maybe that’s a product of having not needed to run, but it is also a product of playing a very good Utah defense too.
Please do not dismiss the disparity in special teams rank. That appears to be huge.
Defensively, I was surprised that the Houston defense was so highly ranked. Just wasn’t expecting it. I mentioned above that the Houston secondary is absolutely dealing and the stats play that out. That may be a product of who they played, but it doesn’t diminish the fact that they are performing as well. Not great at stopping the run, but they are near-elite at stopping explosive drives, although they will allow teams to churn out drives on them. The Texas Tech defense is pretty consistent across the board, top 30-ish in stopping the run and the pass and a pretty good disprity in the disruptive plays created between Texas Tech and Houston. Texas Tech is good at stopping the explosive drives and just grinding offenses to a halt.
BCF has the Texas Tech defense as elite and a decent offense. I don’t know that I think that the defense is that good and I think the Texas Tech offense is better. The reason why I think this is that I don’t think that the Utah offense was that good, particularly because Dampier just isn’t a proficient passer and I don’t know that Texas Tech has really faced a quarterback that can sling it. I also tend to think that Texas Tech’s skill positions on offense are really good. Weigman will be able to throw the ball better than anyone else that Texas Tech has played. Houston’s offense hasn’t been great, but the defense has been legitimate an I bet they are even better at home.
ESPN’s FPI appears to be weighted very much in favor of the SEC and Big Ten.
Kelly Ford has Texas Tech the highest overall, he has the offense as being top 10 and the defense and special teams as top 15.
CFB Depth also really likes Texas Tech and the figures for Houston pretty well match the other stats websites.
SP+ absolutely loves Texas Tech, particularly the offense. I’d say that the numbers for Houston pretty well line up with everything else.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
When the line opened at Texas Tech -8.5, I thought that was about right. It’s inflated to -10 and then -12.5 and now it’s at -11.5. This is one of those games where I am fairly certain that Texas Tech is a better team than Houston, particularly on offense. The key will be showing up on the road and coming off of a bye with the same intensity as they did against Utah. I don’t think that they will lack motivation. I think this team can see what’s on the horizon, it’s the march to that point where they will have to keep a clear eye on the step ahead.