Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0, 3-0)
Bad Guys: Arizona State Sun Devils (4-2, 2-1)
Where: Mountain American Stadium | Tempe, Arizona
When: Saturday, October 18th @ 3:00 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -7.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Arizona State
Weather Report: Sunny, High 81, Low 61
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Sam Leavitt (6-2/205) or QB Jeff Sims (6-4/220): Leavitt is injured and he didn’t play last week with a leg injury, which means that Sims got the call against Utah in SLC. Leavitt is a guy who can run, so the injury affects him significantly I think and it will affect him against the Texas Tech pass rush. For the year, Leavitt is completing 63% of his passes, 208 yards a game, 6.6 yards per attempt, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while rushing for about 55 yards a game. Sims did not have a good day against Utah, which is not surprising, that’s a heck of a defense. He’ll run as well, but Leavitt is key to this team.
RB Raleek Brown (5-9/195): Brown is a transfer from USC that’s carried the main load thus far, although Kyson Brown (6-1/205 – who may be out) does get a handful as well. Raleek averages 96 yards a game and 6.3 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns while catching about 3 passes a game for about 21 yards. Kyson averages about 27 yards a game, nearly 6 yards an attempt while catching 2 passes a game.
WR Jordyn Tyson (6-2/200): As I am sure you are away, Jordyn is the brother to former Red Raider basketballer Jaylon Tyson. Jordyn is an absolute stud and he’s expected to be a high pick in the next NFL Draft. Tyson has 47 receptions on the season for 87 yards a game with 7 touchdowns.
DE Prince Dorbah (6-2/245) and DE Clayton Smith (6-5/255): Strangely, Dorbah is a transfer from Texas and Smith is from Oklahoma and they pair up to be a pretty formidable pair on the edge. Dorbah has just 11 tackles, but 6.5 for a loss and 3 of those are sacks with 3 quarterback hurries, a pass broken up and a forced fumble. Smith has 13 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 4 sacks, and a quarterback hurry.
LB Jordan Crook (5-11/220): An excellent run-stopping linebacker, also decent in rushing the passer. Crook has 42 tackles, 5.5 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks with a pass broken up and a quarterback hurry.
CB Keith Abney II (6-0/190): Abney is probably the best player in the secondary, tremendous tackler and very good cover guy. Abney has 14 tackles, 1 interception, 5 passes broken up, a sack and a forced fumble thus far in the season.
S Myles “Ghost” Rowser (6-1/195): Very solid player, maybe a better run defender than in coverage, but he’ll also get to the quarterback. Rowser has 41 tackles, so he’s highly productive, 3 tackles for a loss and 2 passes broken up.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
A Healthy Leavitt: That’s really supposed to be a question because part of what makes Leavitt so special is his ability to run and if Leavitt isn’t fully healthy on a bum ankle (if that is the injured area) and this pass rush, that could be a pretty big problem for Leavitt and the Arizona State offense. Arizona State’s tight ends aren’t great blockers, but right tackle Max Iheanachor is a good pass blocker and left tackle Josh Atkins is decent at that spot as well. I think that David Bailey and Romello Height will be better than the tackles, but the tackles aren’t pushovers either.
Time for Receivers to Shine: That’s also a question. Last week Will Hammond had issues connecting and I don’t know that Texas Tech can just be a running team that doesn’t open things up with those receivers. I think the Arizona State defensive backs are decent, but playing against quality opponents should not be a reason why the receivers don’t get open. They need to step up and make things easy for Hammond if he starts.
With Morton, Is Texas Tech Built for This: A third question? Yes, a third question. Behren Morton and his injured ankle are obviously an issue and Texas Tech has positioned themselves to survive an injured quarterback. The staff saw a situation that needed to be addressed and they did, by continuing to develop Hammond in the spring and signing Mitch Griffis
Defensive Line Depth: It’s needed and please don’t discount how important Skyler Gill-Howard is to this entire process. Gill-Howard is elite and A.J. Holmes, Jr. is not a bad option, but that means that his backup, Dooda Banks has to be elite. And Jayden Cofield and Amier Washington have to be outstanding. You’ve waived for an opportunity to be “next man up” and they all have to be ready to fill the huge shoes of Gill-Howard.
Not So Special: I’m trying to dig into why Arizona State isn’t great at special teams. The field goal kicker is fine, 11 of 14 and 15 of 15 in point after attempts. Their punter has been pretty terrible, just 36 yards per punt and just 1 punt inside the 20 all year. That’s something. Raleek Brown is the returner for kickoffs and punts, 120th in kickoff returns, but 15th in punt returns. Covering those kicks, Arizona State is 113th in opponent punt returns allowing 14.13 per return and 87th in opponent kickoff returns, allowing 21.25 per return. There’s definitely extra yardage to be found there.
Video Notes: I don’t know that there would be much to show from the Utah game without Leavitt . . . Leavitt looks really sharp . . . the Texas Tech offensive tackles better be ready for some speed because those guys can scoot . . . there will be holes in the secondary, looks like quite a bit of zone and having to throw into spots . . . Arizona State broke some big runs, some of that was terrible defense by TCU, but some of that was ASU moving some folks . . . Leavitt will hold onto the ball a bit longer than he should . . . Arizona State will bring a blitz on you and I think my overall assessment of the defense is that they are solid and probably shine a bit brighter at home . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats:
This finally feels about right for Texas Tech. The Texas Tech offense is really good, but I’m not sure if it is elite with Will Hammond at the helm. Regardless, to be top 30 in just about every category is something. How about Arizona State being the best rushing team in the nation? Think that will be a fun match-up against the Texas Tech defense which is 3rd in the nation? Arizona State is not necessarily explosive and is decently efficient. The passing game is not what I thought it would be with Leavitt at quarterback, but having a whole game without him is going to affect those stats and playing that Utah defense. I’m shocked by the special teams rank. The Arizona State defense is decent as well, particularly good against the pass and they also have a pretty darn high disruptive play created rate. They don’t allow the big play and force teams off the field.
Again, the special teams is a real issue for Arizona State. We’ve obviously dug into this issue already, but I don’t know if this has cost Arizona State a game. What we do see according to BCF is that ASU is a top 3rd team in just about every respect. Kelly Ford is not as high on them, the offense in particular. CFB Depth is even less confident of the Arizona State team, while SP+ seems more in line with Kelly Ford for the most part.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
The line has fallen dramatically since Leavitt is healthy, from Texas Tech favored by -11.5 to now Texas Tech at -7.5. That’s a huge swing, especially when it opened with Arizona State favored by 4. For me, it depends who starts at quarterback for Texas Tech, I think I very much like Texas Tech if Morton starts, while I’m less positive if Hammond starts. I still think Texas Tech can win, but I’m just less confident about beating that spread of a touchdown. I would guess that Arizona State is good at home, thus far have not lost at home and was undefeated at home last year.
We also have to get to this one bit of news before I sign off. As reported by Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams the Big 12 will give one warning for any objects thrown on the field and the second time will result in a $100,000 fine and a 15-yard penalty.
The video conference was not intended for public release because the Big 12 has not spoken about the matter, Tech senior associate athletics director Robert Giovannetti said, but a half-minute clip of Hocutt spelling out the policy changes showed up on social media after business hours Thursday.
“Kirby was just trying to tell the students, ‘Hey, the stakes have gotten a little higher’,” Giovannetti said. “We scheduled a meeting with the student leaders from a bunch of student organizations on campus, along with the SGA [Student Government Association], just to talk to them about game-day environment and things we can do better.”
Giovannetti said the Big 12 sent a memo to all its presidents and athletics directors informing them of the policy change on Monday, Oct. 14. He said there was not a vote of the ADs. Hocutt told the student groups on the video conference that the changes are effective immediately.
I think that this effectively ends the tortilla toss, which is a shame because this was a fun tradition that I don’t think hurt anyone. I think this ruling is short-sighted in that this will likely lead to visiting fans to throw objects on the field that can easily be blamed on Texas Tech, so I’m not real sure how this is going to be legislated. Of course, I think that the other side of this is that the likely scenario is that it will be Texas Tech fans throwing tortillas next week and I don’t know how to avoid this other than pat-downs before entering the stadium. I somewhat blame Lance Leipold for all of this, things certainly were ramped up when he lied about the pocketknife. For me, the tradition of throwing a tortilla isn’t worth it, but I know that being told what to do won’t sit well with at least one person and so I expect at least one fine, probably more.