Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1, 3-1)
Bad Guys: Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-6, 0-4)
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, October 25th @ 3:00 pm
TV & Streaming: ESPNU
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -37.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Oklahoma State
Weather Report: AM Clouds/PM Sun, High 72, Low 49
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Zane Flores (6-3/215) Sam Jackson V (5-10/195): Flores is a redshirt freshman and Jackson is a senior. Flores hasn’t played in two games, but think he would be the starter if they had their preferences. Jackson is a receiver playing quarterback, quite a bit smaller and hasn’t had a ton of production, but the Cowboys are probably grasping at straws at this point. Jackson is a terrific runner and great in the open field (he’s legitimately very good). Flores is a freshman quarterback that is coming off of an injury and hasn’t played very well thus far.
RB Rodney Fields, Jr. (5-9/195): Fields is truly a bright spot and is dangerous out of the backfield in addition to running the ball. Fields averages about 70 yards a game, 5.33 yards a carry with just 1 touchdown. I mentioned the pass-catching and he’s got 19 receptions, averages 11 yards a catch with a touchdown. I’d also watch out for Trent Howland (6-2/247) as an H-back, he’ll run over some people and would be useful in short-yardage situations.
WR Gavin Freeman (5-8/185): Freeman is a one-time Texas Tech commit, who flipped to Oklahoma and then obviously transferred to Oklahoma State. Freeman is probably the most talented receiver of the this group, catching 23 passes for 233 yards, 10 yards per catch, with 2 touchdowns. Freeman is also the main punt returner and averages about 4.5 yards a return.
DE Armstrong Nnodim (6-2/290): Nnodim is probably the best player along the line. A good pass rusher and run defender. Not a ton of stats, just 6 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss and a sack.
LB Bryan McCoy, Jr. (6-0/225) & OLB Wendell Gregory (6-3/255): McCoy is probably the teams’ best run defender, but may be lacking in other areas. McCoy has 45 tackles, averaging nearly 6.5 a game. Gregory is the best pass rusher and maybe the best defender on the team. Gregory has 15 tackles, but of those 15, 9.5 are a tackle for a loss, which includes 3 sacks. That’s pretty impressive. He’s also got 4 quarterback hurries, a forced fumble and a pass broken up.
S Mordecai McDaniel (6-1/200): A very solid player against the run, but maybe a bit suspect against the pass. McDaniel has 18 tackles, but no picks and just 1 pass broken up.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
Good Pass-Blocking Interior: the interior of the Oklahoma State offensive line is a very good pass-blocking group. LG Bob Schick (6-6/305), C Austin Kawecki (6-4/300), and RG Noah McKinney (6-4/330) all grade out well in terms of protecting the quarterback. The issues are at left tackle where Nuku Mafi (6-4/325) has had issues and that may be a point of attack for the Texas Tech defense.
Not One Dude: The receivers all appear to be generally the same. not great, just okay. Shamar Rigby (6-3/190) is the greatest downfield threat and averages nearly 17 yards a catch, but doesn’t have a touchdown. Fields is the 2nd leading receiver in terms of catches, while Terrill Davis (6-0/195) is the only other receiver in double-figure catches with 12.
Very Simple: This doesn’t have to be particularly deep, but the offense has to be better. From top to bottom. The line needs to be better and nastier and have a little attitude, the receivers need to be better which would include no drops, and the quarterback needs to be better. There are times where it looks like Hammond is trying to make difficult passes and I don’t know if it has to be that difficult. And you can absolutely bet that Oklahoma State will employ the same tactics that Arizona State employed, perhaps with not as good players, but I don’t know that this will matter all that much.
Hammond to Start: Word broke yesterday that Hammond would be the starter. The past two games, Hammond has had a QBR of 69.4 and 54.7, which is quite frankly pretty terrible. For reference purposes, it was 95.7 against Utah where receivers made plays down the field and he was able to couple those things with some plays on his feet. I think that Mack Leftwich and Hammond realize that Hammond doesn’t need to be the hero, he doesn’t need to call his number all of the time. This isn’t high school where the quarterback has to do everything.
Flores or Jackson: I don’t know what quarterback that the Cowboys will go with. Flores is a passer, but he’s a freshman and if you thought that Hammond’s QBR was bad, Flores had QBR’s of 63.5, 22.6, 27.8, 44.1, and 21.2 before being injured. Jackson is a runner, he’s fast and he gets things done and the defense would be inclined to simply fit up and stop the Cowboys from running the ball.
Video Notes: Probably going to be a lot of zone read with the smaller quarterback, which I’m not entirely sure that he’ll play. Flores may be getting healthy . . . wide open lanes for that Cincy running back, the question will be if the Texas Tech line can accomplish the same thing . . . pretty poor tackling and bad angles by Oklahoma State on that first touchdown . . . Cincinnati is just loading the box to stop the run . . . I sort of have to give it to that receiver/quarterback, he’s giving full effort even though he knows exactly what he’s up against . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats:
I did not know that Oklahoma State had fallen to such levels. This is bad. Real bad. i don’t know what to add over than special teams appears to be a bright spot.
Continues to be bad to quite bad. To focus a bit on Texas Tech, the Red Raiders did not appear to fall off that much, although I think that BCF is the most reactive of the statistical sites I pull from (remember, they are all linked and referenced below). Special teams has also taken a bit of a hit in a couple of the rankings, which I find interesting. I don’t think they’ve done anything wrong, but maybe just not been as good?
This looks exactly like the spread says that it looks:
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
I don’t think Texas Tech loses this game, even with Will Hammond at quarterback. I would agree that Behren Morton needs to be fully healthy for the Kansas State away game coming up next week. The point spread seems really rich and I’d take Oklahoma State and those points. Even Oregon is only favored to win by 32 points with a fully healthy team and Wisconsin is likely as terrible as Oklahoma State.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly has an excellent look at the playoff picture with Texas Tech still having a very good chance to finish out, although it will be difficult:
Heading into Week 9 last season, Arizona State was 5-2 but only 52nd in SP+, having wobbled through a series of close games and having suffered a mid-October upset loss without injured quarterback Sam Leavitt. As you probably remember, the Sun Devils caught fire, winning six straight, winning the Big 12 with a rout of Iowa State and all but beating Texas in the CFP quarterfinals.
ASU has certainly lined up a lot of parallels heading into Week 9 of 2025. Same record? Check. Same September mediocrity? Check. Same mid-October loss sans Leavitt? Check. Another SP+ ranking in the 50s? Check (55th). Despite a 3-1 conference record, and despite last week’s upset of Texas Tech, ASU has only a 4.8% title chance at the moment, per SP+. From a statistical standpoint, a conference title run would be just as unexpected as last year’s. It would be one hell of a story if they caught fire again.
Right now, three teams have at least a 17% title chance, per SP+: Texas Tech (34.8%), BYU (25.1%) and Cincinnati (17.5%). Utah (6.6%), ASU (4.8%) and Houston (4.1%) are still in the hunt, and if Iowa State (2.6%) regains its early-season form, the Cyclones could beat some contenders down the stretch — including unbeaten BYU this weekend — and insert themselves in the race as well.
Key upcoming games: Houston at Arizona State (Week 9), Cincinnati at Utah (Week 10), BYU at Texas Tech (Week 11), BYU at Cincinnati (Week 13)