Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-1, 4-1)
Bad Guys: Kansas State Wildcats (4-4, 3-2)
Where: Bill Snyder Family Stadium | Manhattan, Kansas
When: Saturday, November 1st @ 2:30 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -7
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Kansas State
Weather Report: Partly Cloudy, High 51, Low 29
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Avery Johnson (6-3/196): Texas Tech fans know who Avery Johnson is, without a doubt. He’s had a very good year and I think he’s been pretty good passing the ball as well. For the year, Johnson is completing 7.5 yards per attempt and averages 224 yards a game with 15 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions thus far. As we all know, Johnson is very mobile and runs about 8 times a game and averages nearly 4 yards a carry with 5 touchdowns.
RB Joe Jackson (6-0/212): Johnson maybe gets half of the snaps and is obviously a bigger back that doesn’t shy away from contact and he averages about 48 yards a game, 4.02 yards a carry and has just 1 touchdown.
WR Jayce Brown (6-0/179) | Jaron Tibbs (6-2/212) | Jerand Bradley (6-5/223): These 3 receivers are the main targets. You’ll note that former Red Raider Bradley is one of those guys. Brown is probably the most talented of the three receivers and gets the most targets, closely followed by Tibbs. Brown has 36 receptions, averages 16 yards a catch, and 72 yards a game with 4 touchdowns. Tibbs is slightly less productive, 12.5 yards a catch, 3 touchdowns and about 50 yards a game. Bradley has just 12 catches on the year, 15 yards a reception adn about 30 yards a game with 2 touchdowns.
BUCK Jordan Allen (6-4/262): Allen probably grades out as the best lineman, tremendous in space and a really good defensive end. I should also mention that K-State has trio of talented defensive linemen, including Allen along with BUCK Ryan Davis (6-4/252) and DE Chiddi Obiazor (6-6/275). Allen doesn’t have a ton of stats, just 7 tackles and 1.5 sacks and Davis has 1.5 sacks and Obiazor has 2.5.
LB Austin Romaine (6-2/245): If Jacob Rodriguez wasn’t so good, Romaine might be the best linebacker in the Big 12. A tremendous player, particularly as a run defender and simply makes plays. Romaine has 55 tackles on the year, 6.5 tackles for a loss, 2 passes broken up, and 5 quarterback hurries.
CB Donovan McIntosh (6-3/194): McIntosh is maybe a better run-defending cornerback than coverage cornerback. A great tackler and excels in the run.
SS VJ Payne (6-3/208): Another really strong tackler, who is mobile enough to be quite strong in coverage, but is also a very good run-defender at that strong safety spot and has 24 tackles and 4 passes broken up.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
Hecht vs. Hunter: I don’t know if C Sam Hecht (6-4/300) is going to be a highly thought of offensive lineman for the NFL Draft, but he’s got good overall ratings, especially pass blocking and is likely the team’s best offensive player behind Johnson. Lee Hunter (6-4/330) will likely be matched up against Hecht and this should be the best battle along the lie. I think that LT John Pastore (6-6/300) is decent, but RT Andrew Leingang (6-6/304) may struggle against the pass rush.
The Same Team: I was concerned that Kansas State would have a huge advantage at home, but they averaged 33.5 points at home and 28.5 on the road, so they are pretty consistent. What about defense? The defense allows 26.8 points at home and 24.8 on the road. Not a huge point differential. They are pretty consistent both on the road and at home in both instances. Texas Tech will need to score some points, but the K-State defense allows quite a bit as well. Texas Tech averages 52 points at home and 30 on the road, while allowing 10 at home and 15 on the road.
Outstanding Oakley: I didn’t talk about TE Garrett Oakley (6-5/248) above, but he is a threat, he has 25 receptions for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns and he can be a problem. I think this is mitigated a bit by John Curry being such a good cover and he’s right there behind Jacob Rodriguez in terms of how well the linebackers are playing. A quick aside, Kansas State has a true freshman tight end, Linkon Cure (6-5/230), and was one of the best recruits in K-State history and he’s only played a bit. It’s tough to play as a freshman.
Talented Secondary: It’s not an all-star unit, but it’s a very good group and they are all solid. Payne is the best player I think. CB Donovan McIntosh (6-3/294) is terrific in coverage. CB Zashon Rich (6-1/209) is terrific in run defense and may have issues in coverage. FS Gunner Maldonado (5-11/193) is a heavy hitter.
Be the Difference: This is a game that I feel like puts a ton of pressure on QB Behren Morton. He’s got to stay healthy for the remainder of the season and take care of himself and maybe be more careful. He’s got to be great and have the offense absolutely humming and not missing a beat as he comes back from his leg injury. And I think he’s fully healthy, I’m not worried about that, but there is no other option if Texas Tech wants to have the season he hopes to have.
Video Notes: K-State fumbles on the kickoff and immediately allows a Kansas touchdown, so they started in a hole that they promptly climbed out of quite easily . . . very wide receiver splits, Wells is very much spreading them out when he can . . . the designed run to the weakside is blocked really well and an easy touchdown. Kansas doesn’t give much, if any resistance . . . the smaller pass rush is a problem for the Kansas offensive line and you have to think that they will attempt to be really fast against the Texas Tech offensive line . . . Kansas does a terrible job in coverage against WR Brown, just let’s him find a huge gap and then on the next play Johnson throws a perfect ball to Tibbs . . . K-State is getting to Daniels with just 4 rushers and they contain quite well and don’t give him any room to run . . . Kansas State had that 2nd touchdown stopped, but just didn’t get enough hats on the ball . . . when K-State tries to get cute and go perpendicular to the line of scrimmage the offense looks terrible, but when they go vertical it’s got something as the receivers can get open and they can get open deep . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats:
Kansas State is fine offensively. They are a better passing team than running team, the highlights above display that pretty nicely. Beta Rank doesn’t love the Texas Tech offense and I’d love to see the run game be highlighted more and with Morton, maybe that happens a bit better and things open up abit. Both defenses are really good and this may be a game where Morton needs to pick apart the Wildcats.
These numbers show that Kansas State is a solid team, but they differ on whether or not they are better on offense or defense. As an aside, SP+ thinks that Texas Tech wins by 10.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
Another week and I am desperately trying to finish this before I need to get ready for work. I think I like Texas Tech here and maybe don’t even care about the points.