The Morning Stake | 2025.12.09

On the Hardwood

ESPN: AP men’s college basketball Top 25 poll breakdown

16. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Previous ranking: 19

2025-26 record: 7-2

Stat to know: JT Toppin has six games with 15 or more rebounds while at Texas Tech. No other player in the program’s past 30 years has had more than two such games.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Arkansas in Dallas, 12 p.m., ESPN2

G Chris Anderson received his 2nd Big 12 Starting Five award, which is given to the 5 best players in the Big 12 that week

On the Gridiron

The big news was that LB Jacob Rodriguez was not one of the four finalists for the Heisman Trophy. The finalists were Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia, Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, and Ohio State QB Julian Sayin. I’m not particularly upset about this because I didn’t think that Rodriguez would get a fair shake at this award because it rarely goes to linebackers and when it does go to linebackers (as finalists) then only if you go to a blue blood school. College football isn’t wired for newcomers. I think it is fuel to the fire more than anything else.

LB Jacob Rodriguez won the Bronko Nagurski Trophy yesterday, complete with black hat in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Nagurski Trophy goes to the nation’s best defender (only since 1993). A deserved award for Rodrigues.

The Athletic: Best College Football Playoff matchups, worst draw, early picks and more first thoughts – I’ve obviously picked the opinions that might rile up the Texas Tech fanbase.

Who got the most favorable draw?

Kamrani: Oregon’s path to the semifinals isn’t as difficult as some might paint it to be. If the Ducks take care of the Dukes in Eugene, they face a Texas Tech team that has a great defense, especially a dynamite defensive line. But the Ducks gave up just 14 sacks in 12 games, and Texas Tech’s offense has not shouldered the load in games against more-talented teams in 2025. The blowout wins over BYU were primarily a byproduct of the defense being so dominant.
Meek: I agree with Chris: I like Oregon’s draw. No disrespect to James Madison, but that’s about as favorable as it gets for a first-round game. Texas Tech is very good, but the Big 12 schedule didn’t test the Red Raiders with many Top 25 matchups. The Ducks are also on the opposite side of the bracket from Ohio State, the team that dismantled them in the Rose Bowl last year.

ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg: 2025-26 CFP, bowl picks: We predicted every postseason game

The best teams money can buy? Let’s freaking go. No two programs seem to get more flak for what they invest in their rosters than Oregon (hello, Phil Knight) and Texas Tech (howdy, Cody Campbell). But the Red Raiders and Ducks have earned their way to this stage and should deliver an incredible matchup in South Florida. Oregon has the quarterback edge with Dante Moore, who should have more wide receivers at his disposal as he faces a top-five defense in Texas Tech. The matchup of Oregon’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s defensive front should be epic. Even though Oregon has CFP experience, Texas Tech should be able to ride Shiel Wood’s defense and just enough offense to get the W.

Prediction: Texas Tech 23, Oregon 20

ESPN’s Pam Maldonado: Post-conference-championship betting angles: What did we learn about each team’s identity? – I have found Maldonado to be one of the most insightful writers I’ve followed in some time. I’ve appreciated her content this year and she’s been right more than once about Texas Tech.

Texas Tech: Winning because it dictates the script

Texas Tech did exactly what wanted it to do and closed every door the BYU Cougars needed to stay alive. This matchup was always about structure. BYU requires pace control, early-down leverage and a functional run game to operate. The Cougars managed that for a bit, but the moment Tech disrupted any of that formula, the BYU offense collapsed.

BYU finished with 63 rushing yards, couldn’t generate explosive plays and had zero answers once the game tilted into passing downs. Turnovers happened, sure, but Tech’s front won naturally, its coverage erased easy throws and the game shifted into a version BYU has no tools for. That’s what dictating script looks like: forcing your opponent into an identity they can’t play.

Will it scale in the CFP? Tech’s run defense and pass rush make the Red Raiders the type of team that can tilt the field against anyone.

Texas Tech betting angle: Tech’s defense removes variance. The Red Raiders take away your Plan A and dare you to win with a Plan B you don’t have. It’s why BYU’s team total under was live from the first snap and why Tech will continue to be a strong matchup-dependent team, especially against offenses that need the run to survive.

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