Texas Tech was able to bounce back from their three-game conference losing streak with a victory over TCU last Monday. However, they followed that performance with a loss on the road to Kansas. That brings their current Big 12 record to 5-4. Now at the halfway point of the conference season, let’s see how BPI projects everything to shake out.
First, here is how the Big 12 stacks up nationally:
Next, here is the back end of the conference schedule, with Texas Tech’s odds to win each game:
|Opponent||Chance to Win (%)|
|@ Oklahoma State||79|
|@ Iowa State||27.4|
The average remaining win probability is 67 percent. Using that, we can calculate the probability that Tech will finish with each remaining possible Big 12 conference record:
|Big 12 Record||Probability (%)|
Finally, here is how the Big 12 regular season title race is shaping up at the halfway mark. Multiple teams have a decent shot, and it will be intriguing to see if anybody can knock off Kansas when all is said and done.
|Team||Chance to win Big 12|
My Two Cents
I think 12-6 will be a good enough record to win a share of the Big 12 title. BPI seems high on the possibility of a split title, given that their total above is 144 percent. In fact, I could see three or maybe even four teams all finishing 12-6 and splitting the title. 13-5 just seems out of reach unless somebody is able to really finish strong. We’ll see, but I think Iowa State has the best chance to win it outright.
Last year’s team finished 11-7 in Big 12 play. They would have finished a game or two better had Keenan Evans not been injured. To me, it is clear that this year’s team is not as good as last year’s. An 11-7 finish in Big 12 play would be nothing to hang their heads over. I think reaching the Sweet 16 is a tough but doable goal, and do not expect much beyond that.