Basketball

By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s Big 12 Season Outlook (Week Six)

Texas Tech was able to bounce back from their three-game conference losing streak with a victory over TCU last Monday. However, they followed that performance with a loss on the road to Kansas. That brings their current Big 12 record to 5-4. Now at the halfway point of the conference season, let’s see how BPI projects everything to shake out.

First, here is how the Big 12 stacks up nationally:

BPI Rank Team BPI
13 Iowa State 14.3
14 Kansas 13.6
18 Texas Tech 13.1
30 Baylor 11
35 Texas 10.1
37 Oklahoma 9.8
38 TCU 9.5
39 Kansas State 9.5
81 West Virginia 5.4
117 Oklahoma State 3.2

 

Next, here is the back end of the conference schedule, with Texas Tech’s odds to win each game:

Opponent Chance to Win (%)
West Virginia 91
@ Oklahoma 48.2
@ Oklahoma State 79
Baylor 73.8
Kansas 63.5
Oklahoma State 92.8
@ TCU 52.4
Texas 77.1
@ Iowa State 27.4

 

The average remaining win probability is 67 percent. Using that, we can calculate the probability that Tech will finish with each remaining possible Big 12 conference record:

Big 12 Record Probability (%)
14-4 2.8
13-5 12.4
12-6 24.1
11-7 27.3
10-8 19.9
9-9 9.7
8-10 3

 

Finally, here is how the Big 12 regular season title race is shaping up at the halfway mark. Multiple teams have a decent shot, and it will be intriguing to see if anybody can knock off Kansas when all is said and done.

Team Chance to win Big 12
Kansas 46%
Iowa State 46%
Baylor 23%
Texas Tech 16%
Kansas State 13%

 

My Two Cents

I think 12-6 will be a good enough record to win a share of the Big 12 title. BPI seems high on the possibility of a split title, given that their total above is 144 percent. In fact, I could see three or maybe even four teams all finishing 12-6 and splitting the title. 13-5 just seems out of reach unless somebody is able to really finish strong. We’ll see, but I think Iowa State has the best chance to win it outright.

Last year’s team finished 11-7 in Big 12 play. They would have finished a game or two better had Keenan Evans not been injured. To me, it is clear that this year’s team is not as good as last year’s. An 11-7 finish in Big 12 play would be nothing to hang their heads over. I think reaching the Sweet 16 is a tough but doable goal, and do not expect much beyond that.

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