Texas Tech was able to bounce back from their three-game conference losing streak with a victory over TCU last Monday. However, they followed that performance with a loss on the road to Kansas. That brings their current Big 12 record to 5-4. Now at the halfway point of the conference season, let’s see how BPI projects everything to shake out.
First, here is how the Big 12 stacks up nationally:
| BPI Rank | Team | BPI |
| 13 | Iowa State | 14.3 |
| 14 | Kansas | 13.6 |
| 18 | Texas Tech | 13.1 |
| 30 | Baylor | 11 |
| 35 | Texas | 10.1 |
| 37 | Oklahoma | 9.8 |
| 38 | TCU | 9.5 |
| 39 | Kansas State | 9.5 |
| 81 | West Virginia | 5.4 |
| 117 | Oklahoma State | 3.2 |
Next, here is the back end of the conference schedule, with Texas Tech’s odds to win each game:
| Opponent | Chance to Win (%) |
| West Virginia | 91 |
| @ Oklahoma | 48.2 |
| @ Oklahoma State | 79 |
| Baylor | 73.8 |
| Kansas | 63.5 |
| Oklahoma State | 92.8 |
| @ TCU | 52.4 |
| Texas | 77.1 |
| @ Iowa State | 27.4 |
The average remaining win probability is 67 percent. Using that, we can calculate the probability that Tech will finish with each remaining possible Big 12 conference record:
| Big 12 Record | Probability (%) |
| 14-4 | 2.8 |
| 13-5 | 12.4 |
| 12-6 | 24.1 |
| 11-7 | 27.3 |
| 10-8 | 19.9 |
| 9-9 | 9.7 |
| 8-10 | 3 |
Finally, here is how the Big 12 regular season title race is shaping up at the halfway mark. Multiple teams have a decent shot, and it will be intriguing to see if anybody can knock off Kansas when all is said and done.
| Team | Chance to win Big 12 |
| Kansas | 46% |
| Iowa State | 46% |
| Baylor | 23% |
| Texas Tech | 16% |
| Kansas State | 13% |
My Two Cents
I think 12-6 will be a good enough record to win a share of the Big 12 title. BPI seems high on the possibility of a split title, given that their total above is 144 percent. In fact, I could see three or maybe even four teams all finishing 12-6 and splitting the title. 13-5 just seems out of reach unless somebody is able to really finish strong. We’ll see, but I think Iowa State has the best chance to win it outright.
Last year’s team finished 11-7 in Big 12 play. They would have finished a game or two better had Keenan Evans not been injured. To me, it is clear that this year’s team is not as good as last year’s. An 11-7 finish in Big 12 play would be nothing to hang their heads over. I think reaching the Sweet 16 is a tough but doable goal, and do not expect much beyond that.