I missed “By the Numbers” before the Iowa State game, and it’s probably no matter. The Cyclones were favored by every model and thoroughly outplayed the Red Raiders for the fifth year in a row. And since Texas Tech was off last weekend, you didn’t hear from me because my post would have been titled “BYE the numbers.”
Okay, enough with the dad jokes. Here’s what the analytical models and gambling odds have to say about Texas Tech vs. West Virginia and the rest of the Big 12.
ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)
FPI measures the projected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Here is how the Big 12 stacks up.
|Team||National Rank||FPI||Big 12 Title Odds (%)|
There’s a lot of parity between spots 4 and 8, but unfortunately Tech is quite a ways back from that. Here are FPI’s odds for Texas Tech’s remaining schedule.
|Opponent||Win Probability (%)||
Trend from last week
|@ Oklahoma State||12.9||-8.2|
According to FPI, besides the finale against Kansas, Saturday’s game is Texas Tech’s best shot at another victory this season.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model measures the same thing as FPI. Here’s how he has the Big 12 this week.
Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)
McClintock gives the Red Raiders a 25% chance to win on Saturday, and has them pegged as 8-point underdogs.
|Team||National Rank||Sagarin Rating|
Sagarin gives Texas Tech just a 6% chance to win and has them pegged as 27-point underdogs. Simply stated, Sagarin appears to be off the rails. Their national rankings make no sense, and there’s no way West Virginia wins this game 94 times out of 100.
Texas Tech opened as a 1-point favorite, but the line has swung to West Virginia being favored by 3. The money line of Texas Tech +140 amount to implied odds of about 42% for a Red Raider victory, roughly in line with FPI but fairly far apart from the other models.
Interestingly, the Red Raiders are getting more respect from Vegas odds makers than they are any analytical model. This could mean one of two things; either the analytics found a gambling edge, or the odds makers are better at this than everyone else. I’m not sure how Saturday plays out, but I know that in the long run, the latter is more likely to be true.