Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech Season Outlook (Game 5)

I missed “By the Numbers” before the Iowa State game, and it’s probably no matter. The Cyclones were favored by every model and thoroughly outplayed the Red Raiders for the fifth year in a row. And since Texas Tech was off last weekend, you didn’t hear from me because my post would have been titled “BYE the numbers.”

Okay, enough with the dad jokes. Here’s what the analytical models and gambling odds have to say about Texas Tech vs. West Virginia and the rest of the Big 12.

 

ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)

FPI measures the projected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Here is how the Big 12 stacks up.

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Texas 10 16.5 18.5
Oklahoma State 12 14.9 34.5
Oklahoma 15 14.4 8.9
TCU 26 10.2 3.5
Iowa State 30 8.9 16.1
Baylor 33 8.3 2.4
Kansas State 34 8.2 13.5
West Virginia 38 7.1 2.4
Texas Tech 70 -0.2 0
Kansas 118 -13.2 0

 

There’s a lot of parity between spots 4 and 8, but unfortunately Tech is quite a ways back from that. Here are FPI’s odds for Texas Tech’s remaining schedule.

Opponent Win Probability (%)
Trend from last week
West Virginia 40.1 -7.5
Oklahoma 17.2 -2.4
@ TCU 17.6 -1.6
Baylor 30.7 0.3
@ Oklahoma State 12.9 -8.2
Kansas 86.1 2.1
Season average 20.46 -1.73

 

According to FPI, besides the finale against Kansas, Saturday’s game is Texas Tech’s best shot at another victory this season.

 

SP+

Bill Connelly’s SP+ model measures the same thing as FPI. Here’s how he has the Big 12 this week.

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 9 18.1
Oklahoma State 13 15.3
Texas 22 13.4
Iowa State 23 13.2
Baylor 34 9
TCU 42 5.9
West Virginia 43 5.4
Kansas State 67 0.2
Texas Tech 91 -5.5
Kansas 120 -16.1

 

Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 6
Texas 11
Oklahoma State 15
West Virginia 34
TCU 37
Iowa State 39
Baylor 48
Kansas State 53
Texas Tech 79
Kansas 113

 

McClintock gives the Red Raiders a 25% chance to win on Saturday, and has them pegged as 8-point underdogs.

 

Sagarin

Team National Rank Sagarin Rating
Oklahoma State 4 98
West Virginia 11 88
Baylor 13 86
Oklahoma 48 75
Kansas State 52 73
Iowa State 55 73
Texas 56 72
TCU 64 70
Kansas 97 61
Texas Tech 107 58

 

Sagarin gives Texas Tech just a 6% chance to win and has them pegged as 27-point underdogs. Simply stated, Sagarin appears to be off the rails. Their national rankings make no sense, and there’s no way West Virginia wins this game 94 times out of 100.

 

Las Vegas

Texas Tech opened as a 1-point favorite, but the line has swung to West Virginia being favored by 3. The money line of Texas Tech +140 amount to implied odds of about 42% for a Red Raider victory, roughly in line with FPI but fairly far apart from the other models.

Interestingly, the Red Raiders are getting more respect from Vegas odds makers than they are any analytical model. This could mean one of two things; either the analytics found a gambling edge, or the odds makers are better at this than everyone else. I’m not sure how Saturday plays out, but I know that in the long run, the latter is more likely to be true.

Comments

The Latest

To Top