The Morning Stake | 2023.10.16

I know a lot of people disagreed with my assessment that I didn’t think that lack of running the ball resulted in the loss and I think that’s fine. Usually when I think about a team needing to run the ball it’s usually because a drive has stalled and not running the ball on 1st down or whatever resulted in a turnover on downs and/or a punt. That’s not what happened on Saturday night. Other than the first drive in the 2nd half which was a little weird because of a penalty on Rogers that sort of forced a longer down and distance, the offense did move the ball. The offense didn’t stall because Brooks and/or Valdez weren’t getting the ball, it stopped because of interceptions and maybe that’s where we differ.

Saying that you need to run the ball more in order to win is sort of abstract in my mind because it isn’t an absolute. In other words, run the ball = wins isn’t necessarily a true statement. It’s not false either, it’s always more nuanced than that.

Other than the 4th and 2 where Strong heaved it incomplete up the sideline, there really wasn’t an instance where the lack of a running game caused the offense to not do something. It was literally stopped because Strong threw the ball to K-State on 3 separate occasions and K-State scored 3 touchdowns.

So, if the answer is to just run the ball more theoretically or just in general because of the stats that’s also fine, but I think I was looking at the game itself.

All 3 of Strong’s interceptions were on 1st down, which hurts more because he didn’t have to make those throws, but also sort of explains why I didn’t think that Texas Tech needed to run the ball more because those weren’t obvious run downs.

And that’s not to say that there weren’t instances where running the ball would have been more appropriate, but to me running the ball wasn’t some sort of magical panacea where had that happened Texas Tech would have assuredly won.

Texas Tech soccer had senior day yesterday against Oklahoma State and left with a 1-0 win over the Cowgirls, thanks to another shutout by Madison White and the goal by Ashleigh Williams, assist by Elise Anderson. Texas Tech soccer is close to securing a Big 12 title:

With the win on Sunday, Tech also moves to within one win or a BYU draw/loss from clinching the programs’ first ever regular season Big 12 title and closed out the first perfect home season in program history.

Tech has just one match remaining at Iowa State, while BYU closes with a road contest Monday at OU and a home game next Monday versus UCF.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams wrote after the game (I don’t read anything after the game so I don’t get influenced and was surprised this morning to read that Don and I agreed that running the ball wasn’t a magic elixir) that Tahj Brooks’ carry count wasn’t the issue on Saturday night:

The RTDB folks are mad again after Tech’s 38-21 loss home loss Saturday to Kansas State, a game in which freshman third-team quarterback Jake Strong was pressed into service because of an injury to Behren Morton and completed 16 of 28 passes for 173 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.

Near as I can tell, no one minded when Strong took an option keeper 54 yards and threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Jerand Bradley three plays later. They minded more and more when Strong kept winging it into coverage and the Wildcats made him pay.

The people clamoring for Brooks to carry, presumably, 40 or 50 plays a game pointed to his average of 5.8 yards per carry on the night. That’s true as far as it goes, but it’s simplistic, surface-level analysis and doesn’t capture the reality of how ineffective Tech’s run game was for most of the night. Brooks gained 3 yards or fewer on nine of his 17 carries and 4 yards each on another three attempts.

Two sizable gains skewed his numbers. On both, the K-State defense was giving Tech the run, its priority based on down, distance and game situation to simply not get beaten over the top. Late in the first half, against a five-man box with two high safeties, Brooks got loose for 30 yards. The box was even lighter early in the second half for a third-and-15 on which Brooks picked up 13.

Minus those two gains, Brooks carried 15 times for 49 yards, an average of 3.7. Take away two more carries for 9 yards, and he was 13 for 37. On one of those 9-yard runs, a K-State defender hit him in the backfield.

The Red Raiders weren’t winning the line of scrimmage, which is why he didn’t carry 31 times the way he did the week before. That, and Kansas State came in with the 14th-ranked rush defense in the FBS.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams also wrote about what happens next if Behren Morton can’t go in Provo on Saturday night:

In the first half, Morton took a shot in the pocket from defensive end Nate Matlack and, on another play, was driven into the turf by 290-pound defensive tackle Jevon Banks. Those were just a couple of several hard hits he took.

“I think it was an accumulation,” McGuire said.

Morton is Tech’s second quarterback and Strong its third. Tyler Shough, who won the starting job each of the past three seasons, suffered a broken fibula in the West Virginia game and underwent surgery three days later. The time frame for Shough’s return is at least six to eight weeks.

Strong, from Justin Northwest, joined the team in January. He gave the Red Raiders a spark and energized the Jones AT&T Stadium crowd on his second series when he took an option keeper 54 yards to the Kansas State 8-yard line and lofted a touchdown pass to Jerand Bradley three plays later.

He put the Red Raiders ahead 21-17, and then he was intercepted on each of the next three series.

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