There was quite a bit of talk about the rankings of the Texas Tech transfer class and I think that’s well and good, but what if the quality leaving is greater than the quality arriving? For the record, Rivals has the class as the 5th best in the nation, 24/7 Sports also has it 5th, and On3 has it at the 24th best class. I shook off the On3 rating thinking it was just a service having it’s own opinion, an outlier, but an opinion nonetheless. Now the interesting thing about On3’s rating is that they have a “Transfers In” rating for Texas Tech at 73.91 and a “Transfers Out” at 69.73. When I looked for figures, I can’t replicate those On3 figures, but this is what it says in regards to the overall rating:

On3’s Team Transfer Portal Index utilizes the On3 (P)erformance score to measure a team’s production during the transfer process, compared relative against its roster and not a comparison against other schools. This proprietary algorithm determines if a school has improved its overall team talent, stayed the same, or declined in talent during the transfer window.

Ed. Note: I forgot to link to the On3 Texas Tech Transfer page and apologize for that oversight.

Now what I suspect is that they had already thought of accounting for what’s leaving because the net talent is what’s important. For example, Louisville has an “Index Score” of 75 and Ole Miss is 67, while Texas Tech’s is 7. And that correlates with those “Transfers In” and “Transfers Out” figures in that you want more positive numbers in the “Transfers In” category than Transfers Out.

I originally wanted to use two sets of numbers, but Rivals doesn’t seem to have an updated ranking and when I looked at 24/7 Sports, they had rankings for all of the transfers in, but not consistently the transfers out. They sometimes still had high school grades associated with players, which doesn’t help.

Transfers in

Here are the numbers for the “Transfers In” for Texas Tech. I pulled an average and median, and for the Transfers In it was 87.1 for both.

Transfers Out

And for the Transfers Out, an average of 85.6 and a median of 85.3.

The other part of it is that it needs to be position specific as well because the focus appears to be the offensive line and receiver. For the offensive line, the Transfers In is an average of 88.7 and the transfers out is 86.6, so a slight bump in talent, although the transfers in doesn’t have a player as good as Mills, who has a 92, but the addition of Carter and Sciury are both 90’s.

For the receivers, the average Transfers in is 88 and the Transfers out is 85.1 Again, a net positive with Kelly and Conyers both being an 89, while Bradley received an 88 and I think Price’s grade is low, but that’s just me.

Regardless, a somewhat arbitrary company graded these players and the net is a positive, which I think is good and for me, a reminder that you sort of have to take a look at the entire picture, not just the new toys under the tree, but what’s transferred out in addition to what’s transferred in. The other conclusion to maybe figure out is that the Transfers In aren’t leaps and bounds better than the Transfers Out. We know all of the flaws of these players, so maybe that’s some of it. And guys like Kelly and Conyers are a proven thing, but the other spots we just don’t know. It’s just something to consider.