Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1)
Bad Guys: BYU Cougars (8-0, 5-0)
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, November 8th @ 11:00 am
TV & Streaming: ABC
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -10
Game Notes: Texas Tech | BYU
Weather Report: Sunny, High 78, Low 44
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Bear Bachmeier (6-2/220): Bachmeier is a transfer from Stanford and a freshman to boot. He’s been very good thus far and to get the type of production that he’s had is really impressive. Bachmeier is completing 63% of his passes for 212 yards a game with 11 touchdowns and 3 picks on the year. Rushing the ball, he takes off about 12 times a game and averages about 51 yards, with an astounding 9 rushing touchdowns.
RB Enoch Nawahine (5-10/205), RB Jovesa Damuni (6-0/190) and RB LJ Martin (6-2/220): Nawahine is a little-used running back and he would maybe split time with Jovesa Damuni, but the big back that was once a Texas Tech commit, LJ Martin is the workhorse that they hope gets healthy and is going to play. If it is Nawahine then it’s not great, just 8 carries for 23 yards on the year. Martin has yearly 800 yards rushing on the year, 6 yards a carry and 99 yards a game with 5 touchdowns.
WR Chase Roberts (6-4/210) and WR Parker Kingston (5-11/185): Roberts is a bigger and deep threat for the Cougars. Roberts averages about 4 catches a game and nearly 19 yards a catch with 4 touchdowns. Kingston is more slot than anything else and they both are the most productive receivers for the Cougars, averages about 15 yards a catch and 4 touchdowns on the year. I should also maybe add TE Carsen Ryan (6-4/250) who is a very good run-blocker, but is also a threat to catch the ball and has 20 catches on the year with 2 touchdowns.
C Bruce Mitchell (6-4/305): Mitchell is the most talented of the offensive linemen and will be a tough draw for Lee Hunter. An elite pass blocker, he will be tough to move. LT Isaiah Jatta (6-6/315) is right behind Mitchell in terms of talent. I’d also like to say that you don’t see a lot of Bruce’s any longer.
LB Isaiah Glasker (6-5/240): Glasker is just your normal average 6’5″ sam linebacker wreaking havoc on opposing offenses and a very good pass rusher. Glasker has 34 tackles, 6.5 tackles for a loss, which includes 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hurries, 2 picks, and 1 forced fumble.
FS Faletau Satuala (6-4/210) and SS Tanner Wall (6-1/205): The safety group is uber-talented and maybe the best of the secondary. Satuala is terrific in coverage and a sure-tackler for the Cougars while Wall does a little bit of everything really well. Satuala has 53 tackles on the season, 6.5 tackles for a loss, 2 picks, 2 passes broken up, and 2 forced fumbles. Wall has 38 tackles, 2 interceptions, and a tackle for a loss.
CB Evan Johnson (6-0/185): Johnson is the best cover-corner of the bunch and already has 3 picks on the year (with a touchdown) to go along with 29 tackles, and 3 passes broken up.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
A Whole Mess of Defensive Linemen: I think they like to rotate a ton of players and they are led by DT John Taumoepeau (6-2/300), DE Bodie Schoonoer (6-3/265), DE Viliami Po’uha (6-3/270), and OE Hunter Clegg (6-4/248). They aren’t necessarily known for their pass rush ability like Romello Height and David Bailey, but they are all big and will get after the opposing offenses. Taumoepeau is the best run defender and Po’uha is probably the best pass rusher of the group. This is going to be a true rotation I think and they probably attempt to employ the same strategy as Texas Tech in that they want to wear you down by the end of the game. The offensive line is probably well aware of this, but this will be relentless I think.
Bear is a Bear: Bear is a fine passing quarterback, but it is ability to run that makes him special and he’s an absolute load running the ball. This will need to be a cumulative effort and the two guards aren’t necessarily known for their ability to run block, but the two tackles are, LT Isaiah Jatta (6-6/315) and RT Andrew Gentry (6-8/315).
Martin is Ready: RB LJ Martin is going to play. He had an AC shoulder injury a couple of weeks ago that was the initial injury and I don’t know if that’s something that will bother him or if he will just need to play through and he’ll be as tough as he has been all year. I’m guessing that the later will be true and you won’t see any residue from the injury. Bear and Martin make a heck of a 1-2 punch in terms of running the ball, but as mentioned above, there’s not a lot there after that.
BYU Is Big and Physical: That statement is true, but in looking on how they play guys, they’ve got their 4 standard starters in the secondary and a nickel back, Mory Bamba (6-3/190), while I don’t really see a linebacker that would maybe be available in coverage. With that being said, BYU is a big team especially defensively, but I do think that a player like Terrance Carter, Jr. could have a real opportunity to shine as he’s a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. I don’t know that he’ll have an outstanding game, but in trying to cover him that could be a decent issue for the BYU defense to solve.
Offense Issues: I keep seeing a few complaints about the Texas Tech offense, there are those that are not sure about the effectiveness of Mack Leftwich and I am sure that we will hear those grumbles again this week as well. I fully admit that there can be times when the offense looks off and I think I’d say that these teams that Texas Tech is playing, Kansas State last week and BYU this week, have some really talented defenses. Of course the offense is going to stumble and not look smooth. That’s football. I do think that they sort of learned a lesson with the running backs, not getting the ball to them like they should and I don’t think that will happen this week unless things really go sideways. the only thing I’d say is that the Texas Tech offense is 5th in yards and 5th in scoring in the nation. The expectations are high, they should be, but this offense is generally performing quite well given everything.
Video Notes: The game opens with Iowa State opening up over the top of the defense and just beats that cornerback on a double-move that should not have been such a big deal . . . BYU obviously recovers nicely and that BYU quarterback has an absolute hose for a right arm and hits that receiver perfectly in stride while on the run . . . like every team, BYU is susceptible to a quick pass rush . . . the player that gets that pick is a 260 linebacker that BYU has in coverage, which is why he looks like a tank running down the field, but this is why I mention Carter possibly having a decent game . . . BYU’s quarterback continues to throw absolute darts . . . Iowa State’s offense does a little bit of zone and man blocking, which is how Texas Tech will operate as well and they do have success doing that . . . that BYU receiver is just absolutely by himself and just a total error for the Cyclone defense to not be close or aware, and it was a pretty terrific throw . . . what a gift to have that Iowa State player touch that punt with his foot and BYU immediately capitalizes, which that was a terrible defensive call and a terrific offensive call . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms: I didn’t know how to represent the new uniforms, but did my best.
Stats: Beta Rank loves BYU’s offense and especially their ability to run the ball and reduce any negative plays. They’re also plenty decent in terms of explosive plays, so they are pushing the ball down the field. It will be a battle of wills to see how if Texas Tech’s defense is able to make those disruptive plays. Those 3rd down stats are also slightly worse on the road by about 5 percentage points. The BYU defense is also really good overall and not a ton of holes to poke, although they do allow a decent amount of explosive plays plays and allow teams to be more efficient than not.
BCF Toys loves the Texas Tech defense, but thinks the offense is mediocre at best, but that’s a pretty big swing from how the rest of the advanced stats see Texas Tech’s offense. Also interesting to look at the variance between special teams, that’s all over the map.
CFB Graphs sees this being closer than the spread and I think I’d tend to agree.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
BYU is 97th in total plays with 536, about 67 per game. They are not a fast offense or an offense that is trying to speed up the pace of the game. For reference, Texas Tech is 8th in total plays with 662, about 74 per game. I don’t think that I like Texas Tech by 10, which the spread has jumped half a point since Tuesday and I think that’s too rich. I think BYU will keep it within the spread. I’ll take Texas Tech to win and BYU to cover.