The Morning Stake | 2025.12.26

On the Hardwood

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello with this week’s power rankings with Texas Tech checking in on No. 18:

Nolan Groves might have turned Texas Tech’s season around without even making a basket. The Red Raiders seemed well on their way to a fourth loss, trailing Duke by 17 points in the second half with an already-thin rotation down two players because of fouls. So Grant McCasland turned to Groves, a 6-foot-5 freshman who hadn’t played more than one minute in a game since late November, and told him to take the lead on defending Cameron Boozer. Christian Anderson (27 points, five assists) made every play down the stretch, but Groves’ efforts to slow Boozer down helped change the momentum.

Next two weeks: vs. Winthrop (Dec. 28), vs. Oklahoma State (Jan. 3), at Houston (Jan. 6)

On the Gridiron

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese on 5 things Texas Tech needs to do to beat Oregon. Here’s the 1st thing and you can go read the others:

1. Texas Tech QB Behren Morton must finish the game
Behren Morton’s health has been a season-long storyline thanks to his nagging leg injury suffered in the season opener. McGuire says Morton looks as healthy as he’s been all season, and the Red Raiders will need to keep him that way throughout the Orange Bowl. Morton (2,643 yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs) has only played the entirety of four games this year through a combination of injury and Texas Tech blowing people out.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams on containing the Oregon offense:

There might not be a key matchup better in any bowl than Oregon’s offensive skill positions against Texas Tech’s front seven. The Red Raiders’ 39 sacks are tied for sixth in the FBS, and their 31 turnovers gained are first. Moore, a potential top overall draft pick, has thrown for 3,046 yards and 28 touchdowns.

Oregon running backs Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. have nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 24 rushing TDs among them and 7.1 yards per carry.

“Our defensive line has to show up,” McGuire said. “They’ve shown up every week, putting pressure on the quarterback. This quarterback’s special. … We’ve got to put some pressure on him, and we’ve got to do a good job of stopping the run to get to do that.”

The Oregonian’s James Crepea on the top 10 offenses and defenses of Texas Tech:

Threat level (1 lowest to 5 highest): 5
From here on out every opponent is going to be capable of winning. Texas Tech’s offense is extremely potent, even if it benefited from playing against weaker Big 12 competition. Its defense has two unanimous All-Americans in Bailey and Rodriguez and will be the best defense Oregon has faced other than Indiana. The Red Raiders have the firepower to score and the talent to contain the Ducks. Oregon also has the weapons to counter and test Texas Tech more than any opponent to date.
Early prediction: Oregon 31, Texas Tech 28

CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli with naughty and nice lists for each remaining College Football Playoff teams and I’ll let you read the naughty and nice things for Texas Tech as well as the nice thing for Oregon, but here’s the naughty item for the Ducks:

Naughty: You can run on this team
It’s not a glaring weakness. Part of what makes Oregon an intriguing team to me in the postseason is that it doesn’t truly have one. That said, this team does have a tendency to let opponents move the ball on the ground. You only need to look back at the first-round win over James Madison. Even before the second half began, James Madison was moving the ball on the ground against the Ducks; it just couldn’t finish drives once it reached the end zone.

We also saw Washington, Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Indiana have success on the ground against this Ducks defense. Overall, the Ducks rank 41st nationally in success rate against the run at 61.3%. Only the Ole Miss defense has performed worse than the remaining teams. Its EPA per rush of 0.03 is 57th nationally and worst in the field. What the Ducks don’t do is allow explosive rushes. Their 5.28% explosive rush rate ranks fifth nationally. Still, if they run into a team that can consistently move the ball on the ground (Indiana is top 10 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush, and we saw how that went earlier this year), it will pose problems for this team.

The Oregonian’s Aaron Fentress on Oregon’s task of facing Texas Tech’s defense:

“I think the misconception here is that these guys are really good at rushing the passer, and they’re not disruptive in the run game,” Lanning said. “And these guys are both. They’re one of the best run defenses in the nation.”

/snip/

“They generate a ton of negatives, and a lot of it comes from rushing and coverage,” Lanning said. “Rushing for guys up front and letting the guys in the back end cover.”

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