Game Preview: Arizona State vs. Texas Tech

Game Details

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0, 2-0)
Bad Guys: Arizona State Sun Devils (3-2, 1-1)
Where: Galaxy Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, October 17th @ 2:30 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -15.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Arizona State
Weather Report: Sunny, 60-39

Key Players for Arizona State

#8 QB Cutter Boley (6-5/220): Boley is the transfer from Kentucky who was basically brought in to start. Obviously a big quarterback who isn’t necessarily a runner, but he’s completing 63% of his passes for 7.8 yards an attempt with 12 touchdowns and 3 picks while throwing about 245 yards a game.

#3 WR Reed Harris (6-5/220): Harris is obviously a huge reciever, a throw-back to when receivers had some real size. He’s basically the size of Terrance Carter, Jr. In 5 games, Harris has 34 receptions, 590 yards, 17 yards a catch, and 7 touchdowns, obviously a huge threat around the red zone, but can stretch the field too. Aside from Harris, Omarion Miller (6-2/215) is the other main target who has 31 receptions, 312 yards and 2 touchdowns.

#59 LG Maki Stewart (6-5/340) & #71 C Makua Pule (6-3/320): Stewart and Pule are the highest rated linemen on the offensive line and my guess is that they’ll try to center their running game behind these two. Teh tackles have some work to do, but this is a solid combination.

#9 DL Jalen Thompson (6-3/265): Thompson is formerly from Michigan State and is the Sun Devils’ best pass rusher. He has 15 tackles, 2.5 tackles for a loss, of which 2 are sacks, plus 2 quarterback hurries. DT C.J. Fite (6-2/310) & Emar’rion Winston (6-3/265)

#22 LB Owen Long (6-1/225): A very active linebacker, 49 tackles this early season, 1 interception, 1 pass broken up, 1 QB hurry, and 1 forced fumble.

#23 PS Jessiah McGrew (6-2/200) & #1 FS Ashton Stamps (6-0/190): McGrew is big safety, not entirely sure what the PS designation is, but he is a safety that probably is closer to the line of scrimmage, has 17 tackles and 3 passes broken up. Stamps is a bit busier, 16 tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, and 3 passes broken up.

Seth C’s Thoughts on the Game

Arizona State Getting Healthy. According to Arizona Sports’ Douglas Santo, Arizona State is getting two offensive linemen back, Tana Alo-Tupuola will move to center and Wade Helton to right guard. I don’t know how much this changes things, including my preview from above. I usually look at player grades at CFB Depth and Pule grades better than Alo-Tupuola.

The Disconnect. Texas A&M thought that they had their quarterback in Marcel Reed. Last year, Reed had a quarterback rating of 148 and the expectation was that he was going to improve on that and be even better for the Aggies. This year, Reed looks lost and has a quarterback rating of 108. A significant drop. Will Hammond, in limited time last year had a QB rating of 131 and this year it is 138, so a slight improvement. The disconnect is I think with fans and progress is not guaranteed and progress is not always linear and progress is not guaranteed. One other thing that I’ve been thinking about, and it is something that you all have said, which is how can the staff ask Hammond to take shots down the field, but this week McGuire has asked to hang onto his first look a bit longer. I don’t think that those things are not necessarily mutually exclusive from the standpoint that the first look could be for Hammond to take the look down the field rather than check down. If it is me, I thik that Hammond neds to work on game management, knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em. I have found Hammond’s timing to take big shots strange and I tihnk that’s what McGuire is talking about, there’s a time and place for it, but if the offense is churning out yards, continue to do that and take advantage of a soft defense. The good news is that McGuire said that this past weekend Hammond was going to Dallas to work with his quarterback coach, continued improvement . . . hopefully.

Gearing Up for Texas Tech. Also reporting from Arizona Sports’ Damon Allred, head coach Kenny Dillingham is changing practice and really trying to get his team bring the juice and you sort of wish that this was saved for a different opponent:

“I felt like somewhere along the line, the things that win football games became things that we were checking boxes on,” Dillingham said Wednesday. “I think in the last few days, I feel like you could see a little more intent and more belief in the things that we’ve talked about in terms of what wins.”

Get After the Offense. Arizona State’s offense has been struggling, so much so that Dillingham took play-calling away from himself. The problem has been running the ball, 74th in the nation in rushing yards per game and this is certainly a strength for Texas Tech. The test is going to be in the secondary. Teams are throwing the ball against Texas Tech because running the ball has been futile. Teams are passing 44 times against Texas Tech, 138th in the nation and opponents are passing for 298 yards a game, 132nd. The one thing that Texas Tech has done is limit points, in points per play, Texas Tech is 12th in the nation at 0.237.

Third Down Improvement. This is the area that I think needs work, Texas Tech isn’t that bad, 38th in the nation and converting at 43.75%. It has alwasy been the yards needed on 3rd down as the biggest problem. Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 38.71%, 65th in the nation, on 3rd down. This is an area where Arizona State struggles, 130th in 3rd down conversion, 25.93%, and on defense, 40.32%, 78th in the nation. I think for this game, this should be the bellcow for this game for me. Texas Tech should be able to impose themselves here.

Availability Report. Updated last night and Adam Hill and Cash Cleveland moved to probable.

OUT
RB #8 Cameron Dickey
WR #9 Donte Lee Jr.
CB #18 S’Vioarean Martin
S #23 Maddox Quiller
OL #77 Elias Gillen

QUESTIONABLE
QB #4 Thomas Castellanos
WR #6 Jalen Jones
CB #16 Ashton Hampton
OL #57 Hunter Zambrano

PROBABLE
S #0 Mikal Harrison-Pilot
LB #35 Adam Hill
OL #52 Cash Cleveland

Video Notes

That safety was really slow to come over to help and well behind where he needed to be . . . Hawai’i missed an open receiver that could have been a huge play . . . Harris is a big player and so is Boley with an absolute cannon for an arm, Harris just hesitated and that was the move . . . Harris just walked into the end zone without any contact . . . Will Texas Tech special teams get a block . . . It seems as if the Arizona State is wanting to keep things in front of them and allow opponents to make a mistake . . . the two sacks were nothing special, just plays made by the rush edge and not blocked well at all by Hawai’i . . . Miller is a big receiver took and a really strong receiver . . . Who is going to cover Harris? . . . Mack gets a long run to end the 3rd quarter and it doens’t look special, but 1 move allows a free touchdown . . .

Uniforms:

Soapsuds approved ☑️ https://t.co/phE5HzqyGT

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) October 16, 2026

Stats:

Sharp Football

CFB Depth

BCF Toys & ESPN

Definitions:
PPA (Predicted Points Added): It looks at the down, distance, and field position before a run play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position after the play. Passing is usually more efficient than running in modern football. Rushing PPA helps analysts see which teams actually run effectively instead of just wasting downs. For passing, a successful completion that gains a first down or moves closer to scoring adds positive points.

Havoc Rate: Bill Connelly—that measures how often a defense makes a disruptive play. It is calculated by taking total havoc plays and dividing them by total defensive snaps.

Line Yards: Line Yards is an advanced football statistic that estimates how many rushing yards an offensive line produces on a run play, separate from the running back’s own skill.

Stuff Rate: Stuff rate in American football is the percentage of rushing plays that a defense stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Power Success is an advanced football metric that measures the percentage of short-yardage running plays where an offense successfully gets a first down or a touchdown.

FEI: (Fremeau Efficiency Index team ratings) Opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent

Poll & Prediction

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Kind of a crazy line and the first time that I think it has increased from Texas Tech, opening at -12.5 to now at -15.5. With a week off, I don’t know if Texas Tech will be a bit rusty and maybe slow to start, something I think the staff desperately wants to avoid. I think I liked the line at -12.5, but not at -15.5. That seems a bit rich. I’ll pick Texas Tech to win, but not to cover.