Game Preview: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State

Game Details

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1)
Bad Guys: Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3, 4-2)
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium | Stillwater, OK
When: Saturday, November 14th @ 8:30 pm
TV & Streaming: ESPN
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Oklahoma State -3.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Oklahoma State
Weather Report: Mostly Cloudy, 57-38

Key Players for Cincinnati

#17 QB Drew Mestermaker (6-3/215): Mestermaker has picked up where he left off last year, but maybe better. The way that Mestermaker is going, he’s going to be the first quarterback off the board. He’s completing 67% of his passes for 9.6 yards an attempt, 29 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, and 330 yards a game, while running for about 177 yards, meaning he’s not a statue and he can get out of the pocket.

#24 RB Caleb Hawkins (6-0/219): Hawkins is so good, he’s got 1,081 yards rushing thus far, 5.78 yards a rush, 120 yards a game, with 7 touchdowns. That’s not bad. He’s also a threat out of the backfield, 27 receptions, 47 yards receiving per game, and 3 touchdowns.

#0 WR Justin Bowick (6-5/209) | #10 WR Wyatt Young (6-0/199) | #1 WR Miles Coleman (5-6/158): They are all so different, but so productive. Bowkck has 44 receptiosn for 790 yards and 10 touchdowns, Young has 46 for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns, while Coleman has 31 receptions for 460 yards and 3 touchdowns. Along with Hawkins, they are the passing attack for the Pokes.

#3 LB Tate Romney (6-1/233): Romney has 63 tackles, 7 tackles for a loss that includes 1.5 sacks 2ith 2 forced fumbles, and 2 passes broken up.

#32 LB Ethan Wesloski (6-1/234): Another solid linebacker option for OSU, 81 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, which includes 4 sacks, 2 PBU’s, and 4 quarterback hurries. My guess is that Wesloski is coming right off the edge and is the Cowboys’ most effective flitzing linebacker.

#9 CB LaDainian Fields (6-1/176) | #4 CB Mo Horn (5-11/183): Some of you probably remember Horn, a former Red Raider who found a home in Stillwater. Hnr has 28 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss and 5 PBU’s. Fields has 7, yes 7, interceptions on the year, 27 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, and 3 PBU’s along with a QB hurry.

Seth C’s Thoughts on the Game

Stopping Mestemaker. This is not an easy thing to do. Mestemaker has a QB rating of 184 at home and 165 on the road. Not exactly encouraging. And in wins, it is 194, with 142 in a loss. Obviously, as Mestemaker goes, so goes Oklahoma State. Mestemaker starts out with his hair on fire, QB rating of 185 in the 1st quarter, 187 in the 2nd, but just (“just”) 174 in the 3rd and 147 in the 4th quarter. If the Texas Tech offense can keep pace then I think you are going to have to out-last the Cowboys.

Speaking of Outlasting. It is a very short sample size, but Thomas Castellanos has a QB rating of 189 and that’s pretty darned good. And that doesn’t even account for his ability to run. If you were to guess, he only has 284 yards rushing this year, which doesn’t seem like enough, but there’s been a lot of football played and reinventedin just 2 games. There may not be any one person with more pressure on him than Castellanos, and that’s not fair, but he has to have the offense humming. I’d also add that the Cowboys are 81st in stopping the run, here’s hoping the offensive line blocks their asses off and gives J’Koby Williams a great day.

Hold On To Your Butts. Man, this could be a ride. The pass defense is 136th out of 138 teams. For the record, West Virginia was 138th so if you wonder about Castellanos’ success last week, that might have been it. If you want to take solace, Texas Tech is 88th in pass defense QB rating, but they are giving up a mess of yards. And if you want some more positivity for the Texas Tech offense, Oklahoma State is 108th in pass defese QB rating. Maybe there is a chance.

Availability Report.

OUT
RB #0 Quinten Joyner
WR #3 Coy Eakin
WR #6 Jalen Jones
OLB #33 Ansel Nedore

QUESTIONABLE
RB #8 Cameron Dickey
WR #11 Malcolm Simmons
LB #15 Austin Romaine
WR #17 Leyton Stone
S #21 Miquel Dingle Jr.

PROBABLE
OL #79 Howard Sampson

A Grudge. Not really a place for this and I’ll link to it tomorrow, but this story from ESPN’s Dave Wilson about Texas Tech and the Public University Fund and so much more. You won’t regret reading this I think.

Video Notes

The OSU offensive line looked really good at handing off and Mestemaker is good at givign his receivers that one-on-one chance to make a play . . . Hawkins is a big play running back and maybe a perfect compliment . . . The defensive line is big and stout, but not exactly fast, not exactly sure how that will play out; however, the linebackers definitely have speed and that’s I think how they are running that defense . . . Mestemaker looks skinny, but I know he’s not . . . Beter be careful about all-out blitzes because Mestemaker can make those throws . . .

Uniforms:

West Texas Tough.

Game 10 Ŧhreads https://t.co/0bBFUp9xEa

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) November 13, 2026

Stats:

Sharp Football

CFB Depth

BCF Toys & ESPN

Definitions:
PPA (Predicted Points Added): It looks at the down, distance, and field position before a run play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position after the play. Passing is usually more efficient than running in modern football. Rushing PPA helps analysts see which teams actually run effectively instead of just wasting downs. For passing, a successful completion that gains a first down or moves closer to scoring adds positive points.

Havoc Rate: Bill Connelly—that measures how often a defense makes a disruptive play. It is calculated by taking total havoc plays and dividing them by total defensive snaps.

Line Yards: Line Yards is an advanced football statistic that estimates how many rushing yards an offensive line produces on a run play, separate from the running back’s own skill.

Stuff Rate: Stuff rate in American football is the percentage of rushing plays that a defense stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Power Success is an advanced football metric that measures the percentage of short-yardage running plays where an offense successfully gets a first down or a touchdown.

FEI: (Fremeau Efficiency Index team ratings) Opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent

Poll & Prediction

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I like Oklahoma State’s offense so much and having a quarterback like Mestemaker and then you add in a terrible pass defense for Texas Tech in Stillwater and I don’t like those odds. I think I’d even take OSU straight up on this game. Don’t feel great about thinking this, but I’m trying to be honest.