Football

By the Numbers: Texas Tech Season Outlook (Week 4)

What a gut punch last Saturday was. I don’t want to talk about it. Texas Tech might have gained a tad bit of respect from the analytical models for playing a highly ranked team so close. Let’s see what they have to say headed into tomorrow’s bout with Kansas State.

 

ESPN Football Power Index (FPI)

Team National Rank FPI Big 12 Title Odds (%)
Texas 8 19.8 65.5
Oklahoma 12 14.1 10.5
Oklahoma State 20 11 9.4
TCU 22 10.3 3.5
Baylor 26 9.3 4.9
Kansas State 33 6.5 3
Iowa State 36 6.1 2.7
West Virginia 38 5.6 0.5
Texas Tech 53 0.8 0.1
Kansas 82 -10.9 0

 

Despite the loss, Texas Tech earned about two FPI points from last week to this week. FPI’s projected season record went from 3.6 wins to 3.8. Here are the remaining game-by-game probabilities for Texas Tech.

Opponent Win Probability (%)
Trend from last week
@ Kansas State 28 -2.6
@ Iowa State 30.3 0.9
West Virginia 47.6 7.6
Oklahoma 19.6 7.4
@ TCU 19.2 5.8
Baylor 30.4 0.9
@ Oklahoma State 21.1 1.8
Kansas 84 5.6
Season average 28.02 2.74

 

SP+

Here’s how the Big 12 shakes out according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ model.

Team National Rank SP+
Oklahoma 10 19.1
Texas 11 18.5
Baylor 21 14.3
Oklahoma State 28 11.6
Iowa State 41 7.1
TCU 45 5.9
West Virginia 50 3.5
Kansas State 54 2.4
Texas Tech 70 -2.6
Kansas 119 -15.4

 

Yet again, Texas Tech gained about two points in this model from week to week.

 

Adam McClintock (@CFB_Professor)

Team National Rank
Oklahoma 5
Texas 10
Oklahoma State 20
TCU 34
West Virginia 37
Baylor 44
Iowa State 50
Kansas State 55
Texas Tech 77
Kansas 107

 

McClintock’s model, usually more bearish on Texas Tech than other models, is actually the most bullish on the Red Raiders compared to the other models this week. He gives Texas Tech a 35% chance to win in Manhattan and has them pegged as 5-point under dogs.

 

Sagarin Ratings

Team National Rank Sagarin Rating
Oklahoma 3 93
Texas 16 85
Kansas State 19 84
Oklahoma State 20 83
Baylor 30 80
West Virginia 51 73
TCU 60 71
Iowa State 73 68
Texas Tech 74 68
Kansas 120 56

 

I’ve long thought that Sagarin is influenced too much by recent results. It’s an outlier compared to other models this week as Kansas State catapulted all the way to third in the conference. Yes, they beat Oklahoma, but some of the advanced stats weren’t pretty. In other words, the win may have been a fluke and unsustainable. I guess we’ll find out as the season goes along. Sagarin has Tech as an 18-point dog and gives them just a 12% chance to win the game.

 

Las Vegas

The Red Raiders opened as a 4-point dog but the line has narrowed to 2.5 at almost all sports books. They’re currently at +115 on the money line (wager $100 to profit $115) which are implied odds of 46.5%.

It’s interesting to me that Vegas gives better implied odds for Texas Tech than all the models do. Are they trying to suck in bettors to go with Texas Tech? Or do they legitimately think the two teams are more even than all these models?

 

One more nugget before we wrap up this week’s piece. I found this TCU fan who does analytics and predictions. He had Texas Tech at 25% to beat Texas last week, higher than any analytical model or the implied odds in Vegas. This week he actually has Texas Tech as a two-to-one favorite to win in Manhattan. I’m not sure I’m that confident, but it’s interesting and I wanted to pass along. Let’s hope he’s the most accurate once again this week.

 

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