Let’s Talk About Stats: Texas Tech vs. Baylor

Football Study Hall

Please check out Bill Connelly’s statistical profiles for a full detail of each team.

Either today is your lucky day or a terrible day. At the time I’m writing this (about 5:00 a.m.) the statistical profiles that I’ve come to know and love are not working (thanks a lot Google!). If they do get up and running, I’ll try to include it in the 7 Points preview. Luckily, Football Outsiders has some of the stats, including S&P+ ranking, which has Texas Tech 32nd in the nation, one spot ahead of 8-3 Texas and 8-3 Houston, while Baylor is 90th overall. Oh, to be snakebit. And even after last week’s 6 point output against Kansas State, the Texas Tech defense is 18th overall and the defense I think moved up a couple of spots to 86th. Baylor has the 62nd best offense and the 94th best defense according to those figures. So, go figure, that Texas Tech is the best team with a losing record, the next best team is USC and then Purdue at 41st and 42nd, while Baylor is near and around Arkansas (2-9), Wake Forest, Tulane, Colorado, UCLA and SMU in terms of S&P+ rankings. And for context, Baylor was 106th last year in S&P+ rankings, which is 16 spots better with one game yet to play. Texas Tech finished 58th last year in S&P+ rankings.

Other Stats

College Football Analytics: Texas Tech is ranked 38th overall and Baylor is ranked 79th overall. CFA gives Texas Tech a 58% chance of beating Baylor (last week it was also 58% to beat Kansas State).

FEI College Football Ratings: Texas Tech is ranked 48th, one spot behind North Texas, while Baylor is ranked 84th.

ESPN’s Football Power Index: Amazingly, Texas Tech is ranked 27th overall, with Baylor ranked 65th. Exact same records and almost 40 points difference between the two teams. Texas Tech has a 76% chance of winning this final game.

My Team’s Better:

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