The Lede

GAME THINGS
	Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-3, 1-1)
	Kansas State Wildcats (3-2, 1-1)
	October 14th @ 6:00 p.m.
	Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
	Texas Tech -1.5
	FS1 | FOX Sports Live
	68, Sunny

The Wildcats

One thing that I really didn’t want was a pissed off Kansas State team coming off of a loss on the road at Oklahoma State and the Wildcats don’t want to listen to the outside noise:

“Right now, I think we’re listening too much to that outside noise of what we can be, rather than working on what we should be and need to be,” Klieman said.

Senior quarterback Will Howard, who threw three interceptions at Oklahoma State in what he called his worst performance since his freshman year, has heard it all — both positive and negative.

“There’s a lot of things that even coming into the season, good or bad, that were said about us that doesn’t matter and that isn’t stuff that we need to be tuned into,” Howard said. “Obviously, people are free to say what they want and do whatever they please, but to the people in this building the voices don’t really matter.”

Kansas State may be looking to some new pass catchers to generate more efficient offense:

Even though K-State is now throwing for more overall yardage than it did a year ago (210.5 yards per game) its average yardage per pass has dropped from 7.6 to 7.2. And two of Howard’s most reliable pass-catchers aren’t receivers. Tight end Ben Sinnott ranks first on the team in both receiving yards (286) and receiving touchdowns (three). Running back DJ Giddens ranks third in catches (16) and sixth in receiving yards (181).

Phillip Brooks, Jadon Jackson, Keagan Johnson and RJ Garcia have all made big plays this season, but their play could easily be described as inconsistent. They are solid contributors one game and then not much help the next.

That is why K-State coach Chris Klieman acknowledged this week that the Wildcats might pivot away from those receivers and give some new playmakers a chance to contribute starting against Texas Tech on Saturday at AT&T Jones Stadium.

One of the names on that list . . . a Lockett, yes, Sterling Lockett, brother to Tyler.

Despite his struggles, K-State has confidence in QB Will Howard to get a win on the road:

“We have 100% confidence in Will,” K-State receiver Seth Porter said. “ We told him at halftime on Friday and we told him after the game on Friday that there’s no one else we want to ride behind. I have full confidence in his ability to lead and in his ability to perform and throw touchdowns.”

To his credit, Howard has not tried to hide from his slow start to the 2023 season. In fact, he shouldered the blame for K-State’s loss at Oklahoma State.

He answered every question during a frustrating interview session with reporters immediately after the Oklahoma State loss and then faced the proverbial music again on Tuesday when he attended the team’s weekly media availability.

“That was the worst I have played since my freshman year, probably,” Howard said. “But I feel like up until that point I had been playing well. I don’t think I have been playing my best, but we could all say the same thing as a team. Nothing is changing drastically, but there is definitely a mindset switch to snap back to reality a little bit and focus more on the inside noise than the outside noise.”

Kansas State will be at full strength on defense (of course) for Texas Tech:

5. K-State won’t be at full strength on defense. The Wildcats won’t have Daniel Green or Asa Newsom at linebacker and they might not have Will Lee of Jacob Parrish at defensive back. Green and Newsom are out for the season with injuries. Parrish didn’t travel with K-State to the Oklahoma State game with an injury and Lee was forced off the field against the Cowboys with an injury of his own. It is unclear if either of them will be ready to play by Saturday. K-State will rely on Keenan Garber and Justice James at corner if they remain on the sideline.

The Red Raiders

Someone mentioned that they wanted an injury update and it is usually in the first part of Joey McGuire’s press conference:

Back on Saturday: Charlie Robinson and Jordan Brown.
Day-to-Day: Bryce Ramirez, Mason Tharp, Cole Spencer, Jacob Rodriguez.

The adjustment of the offense has been a topic of discussion, I call it an adjustment rather than the offense changing because that’s probably what it is:

Though it may not be the deep shots down the field that many are used to seeing in Lubbock, the revamped offense has found other ways to get the receivers the ball. Price leads the Red Raiders in receptions, yards and touchdown receptions. It has not happened very often on long tosses, but rather in the flats in the screen game or through Run-Pass Option (RPO) plays.

“When we call RPOs, I know if I’m in the inside and it’s designed for me, I know I’m either gonna get the ball or I’m gonna have to turn up field and block,” Price said. “Pre-snap, I’m kind of looking to see, ‘Okay, could this ball come to me?’. If it can, okay, I’m ready. If it’s not, then let’s be ready to get back up field and help the running backs out.”

The emergence of Bralyn Lux and Charles Esters has helped the depth and quality of the defense:

“We’ve been doing a great job, I’ve been on kickoff since my freshman year at Fresno,” Lux said. “I’m used to it. We’ve been running to the ball, making good tackles… We want (to play kick coverage), we want to get the ball out like we did at West Virginia. They didn’t give it to us, but yeah we want to make a big play on special teams.”

Another name that has emerged in the midst of Tech’s defensive uproar is outside linebacker Charles Esters. The third-year sophomore out of Cedar Hill played the best game of his career against Baylor, totalling two sacks, two TFLs, and a forced fumble. Esters has appeared in every game this season, and his hard work paid off against the Bears.

“Just practicing hard, come in to practice everyday thinking it’s a game,” Esters said of his preparation on a weekly basis. “Playing with (outside linebackers’ coach C.J) Ah You, it’s always everything in the game. You pass rush like the game, you run to the ball, everything like that.”

Charles Esters used Tim DeRuyter’s honest assessment as motivation to improve this year:

“It caught me off guard,” Esters said. “But then I took a look in the mirror and said, you know, he’s right. I just gotta get better and work harder and listen to how you coach me.”

It’s tough for any skilled athlete to be told they might not be good enough for what they desire to be. Esters used it as a motivation. DeRuyter became one of his doubters, and he set out to prove him wrong.

I’ve been frank with him when I first got here,” DeRuyter recalled Monday. “I wasn’t sure he was a Big 12 football player and he came and worked his tail off since we’ve been here.”

With the ever shifting rotation of linebackers for the Red Raiders this season, Esters has been a key piece for the team’s depth. In Saturday’s win over Baylor, Esters accounted for two of the team’s six sacks as the Red Raiders applied ample pressure on the Bear offensive front.

And did you know that Esters is 6-3/260? That’s big for a linebacker (which I know he’s a rush linebacker, but still).

I know it’s difficult to think about special teams, but they have been fantastic with Kenny Perry at the helm and the coverage units (please don’t let this be a jinx as K-State is up):

“I like seeing our guys go down there and hit somebody too, honestly,” the Red Raiders’ associate head coach and special teams coordinator said Tuesday. “I don’t like just running down there for no reason.”

So far this season, the Tech coverage teams have done their jobs with no major breakdowns. Tech ranks No. 12 among 130 FBS teams in net punting, helped by the fact Austin McNamara is averaging 48.7 yards and only four of his 23 punts have been returned.

The Red Raiders rank No. 50 in kickoff coverage. They’ve not allowed a kickoff return of more than 28 yards, limiting opponents to an average return of 18.4 yards.

Stats

Look, this is as evenly matched a game as I can recall, with K-State having slightly better stats on a handful of things. The Texas Tech offense has some advantage in their play efficiency, but K-State is so good on defense at what Texas Tech is good at on offense. The defense for Texas Tech is running behind K-State on most stats, but not too far behind other than negative plays.

Advanced Stats:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas State Defense:

Texas Tech Defense vs. Kansas State Offense:

Odds and Ends

23-year old Kenyan Kelvin Kiptum made history in Chicago as he ran a 2:00:35 marathon. Kipton averaged 4:36/mile which is insane. I dare any of you to go run 2 miles at that pace. Absolutely amazing and it’s just a matter of time before humans break a sub 2-hour marathon.

Yes. Well worth your 9 minutes.

Game Prediction

I hate it when spreads are so close. This is maybe a bigger question, but I’ve noticed that the public bets are usually in favor of Texas Tech, this week it is 60% of betters on Texas Tech, last week it was 91%, 69% against Houston, and 53% against West Virginia. Either Red Raiders like to bet or betters like to bet on Texas Tech. Last week I picked Baylor as a reverse jinx and am willing to do that again. On one hand Texas Tech is home, at night, wearing black, and seem motivated, but Kansas State is also good at the things that Texas Tech is also good at. I don’t know if Will Howard will continue his poor trajectory, but it sure would be cool if he did. Howard has a passer rating of 143 at home and 110 at home, and those are the same ratings in wins and losses, 143 for wins and 110 in losses.