Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1, 6-1)
Bad Guys: UCF Knights (4-5, 1-5)
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, November 15th @ 2:30 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -23.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | UCF
Weather Report: Partly Cloudy, High 90, Low 48
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Tayven Jackson (6-4/212): Not totally sure if Jackson is going to play, but he is the starter. A terrific runner and maybe a work in progress in terms of passing. If he can’t go, then Jacurri Brown (6-4/220) would get the nod and he’s maybe a better runner, but a lesser passer than Jackson. Jackson averages about 184 yards a game passing, 6.7 yards per attempt with 5 picks and 5 touchdowns.
RB Myles Montgomery (5-11/205): Montgomery is one of the better runners in the Big 12 and he’s dangerous. As an aside, he was at Cincinnati before UCF. Jaden Nixon (5-10/185) gets a handful of carries as well and is a much better receiver, but also a talented runner as well. Montgomery averages 66 yards rushing a game, 5 yards a carry 2ith 4 touchdowns and catches a couple of passes a game for about 11 yards a game.
TE Dylan Wade (6-2/240): Not a particularly big tight end, but he is a talented pass-catcher and he’s counted on to carry the load quite a bit for the Knights. Wade averages about 38 yards passing a game and nearly 4 receptions a game with 1 touchdown.
LT Paul Rubelt (6-10/330) and RT Preston Cushman (6-5/305): Rubelt is graded as one of the better pass-blockers I’ve reviewed and I am pretty sure that the 6’10” height is real. I would think that if you want to watch something other than the game, watch this. Cushman is supposed to be a good pass-blocker as well. We’re about to find out.
DE Nyjalik Kelly (6-5/250) and DE Malachi Lawrence (6-4/250): Arguably the best defenders, both obviously edge players and they rush the passer really well. Lawrence is going to get after the quarterback, while Kelly is really good against the run. For the year, Kelly has 31 tackles, 7.5 tackles for a loss, 3 sacks, 1 interception, 2 passes broken up, 6 quarterback hurries and 2 forced fumbles. Lawrence has 25 tackles, 10 tackles for a loss, 7 sacks, 3 quarterback hurries, 3 passes broken up and 2 forced fumbles.
LB Cole Kozlowski (6-2/230): Kozlowski is a run stopper and a really productive player. Kozlowski has 59 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 2 passes broken up, and 1 forced fumble.
FS Phillip Dunnam (6-1/190): Dunnam is a high-end player, elite in coverage and a true free safety. Dunnam has 3 picks thus far this year, with 48 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, and a pass broken up.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
Another Tough Defense: Do not expect a cupcake, Texas Tech has faced two quality defenses in Kansas State and BYU and it doesn’t get much easier as the defense is really pretty good. The front 4 is really talented and I’ve detailed the edges above and how talented they are (they are questionable). The defensive tackles are loads, John Walker (6-4/324) and RJ Jackson, Jr. (6-3/310). This is going to be a challenge to run on this team and they will get after the quarterback, so Behren Morton is going to have to get rid of the ball and not take unnecessary sacks.
Size in the Secondary: These Texas Tech receivers have another opportunity to step up and make plays because this secondary is stout as well. Aside from Dunnam, cornerbacks Jayden Bellamy (6-1/180) and Antione Jackson (6-1/175) along with nickel back Jyaire Brown (5-11/177) are really talented members of the Knights’ secondary. This isn’t going to be easy.
Take Advantage of an Iffy UCF Offense: UCF averages 22 points a game, which is 94th overall, .316 points per play (97th), and simply don’t convert, whether it is on 3rd down, 121st overall and 32%, or in the red zone, 107th and converting 77% of the time. I’d also add that UCF is mainly a running team and only average 166 rushing yards a game. One other statistic, UCF averages 35 points a game at home and 11 on the road. That’s a huge disparity and for actual numbers, scored 20 points at Kansas State, 11 at Cincinnati, and 3 points at Baylor.
Out in the Middle: I think that starter C Carter Miller is out this week and the back-up Matthew Prigmore is very young and inexperienced. Lee Hunter should be salivating at the prospect of seeing a back-up center.
Receiver Watch: I almost always mention receivers in some of the players and haven’t done that. They don’t really have a guy that gets deep, but Duane Thomas, Jr. (5-8/175) and DJ Black (6-3/195) along with Chris Domercant (6-1/187) are the most productive receivers. Thomas averages 45 yards receiving a game and 10 yards a catch, Black averages 13 yards a catch and 27 yards receiving and Domercant averages about 21 yards a game and 11 yards per catch.
Video Notes: Houston is really focused on getting the ball out quick and they are not holding onto the ball at all, which I think works well . . . that UCF defense is legitimate though and those edges are absolutely getting off the ball and the snap quickly . . . that UCF defense also just runs to the ball and I’d also mention that the way that nickel back jumps on that pass was impressive . . . Houston did jump and go deep, so that is available . . . a decent amount of misdirection for the UCF offense so that will be something to watch . . . I had no idea there were so many defensive touchdowns in this game, really emphasizes how good the UCF defense is and how that offense might have trouble scoring points, which UCF didn’t do much at all in the second half . . . UCF was susceptible to that running back out of the backfield and catching some passes . . . that zone defense for UCF in the secondary really messed with the Houston quarterback . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats: We’ve talked about the issues with the UCF offense, bottom 3rd according to Beta Rank. They do a decent job of big plays, but that’s about it. The Texas Tech offense is falling a bit behind and the best part of the offense is the 3rd down rate and are still decent at passing the ball. These defenses are quite good and I think this is the first week that Texas Tech has the No. 1 defense according to Beta Rank. As UCF has demonstrated all year, they are top quarter in the nation in run and pass defense.
BCF has the Texas Tech offense not looking great, but the defense is outstanding. More confirmation about the middling UCF offense and very good defense by both BCF and Kelly Ford. CFB Depth isn’t as high on UCF and they do have a lot of injuries they are dealing with doesn’t help. SP+ loves Texas Tech.
CFB Graphs predicts a decent win.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
I don’t know exactly who is going to be available for UCF. The latest injury report has both edges, Kelly and Lawrence, are both listed as questionable and starting running back Montgomery, are all questionable and they are a huge part of the process. My guess is that they will play, but have no idea as to how injured they actually are. The Texas Tech questionables were upgraded to probable last night.
I’d also add that I wasn’t familiar at all with UCF prior to these previews and I’d also add that I didn’t know their defense was soo good. I did want to note that the starting center is officially out that’s good news for the Texas Tech defense. I have felt that Vegas is pushing that line out way too far for Texas Tech and don’t like the 23.5, especially as UCF likes to run the ball so give me Texas Tech to win, but not cover.