Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1, 7-1)
Bad Guys: West Virginia Mountaineers (4-7, 2-6)
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium | Morgantown, West Virginia
When: Saturday, November 29th @ 11:00 am
TV & Streaming: ESPN
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -23.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | West Virginia
Weather Report: Partly Cloudy, High 40, Low 29
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Scotty Fox Jr. (6-2/213): Fox is a true freshman that’s actually been pretty good. He’s played in 9 games, but that’s not really accurate. He’s seen a ton of snaps the last 4 weeks where he’s passed for 301, 157, 202 and 353 yards while going 2-2, losing to TCU and Arizona State, while getting wins against Houston and Colorado. And in those wins he ran for 65 and 58 yards, while in the losses, he ran for -14 and 7.
RB Cyncir Bowers (5-10/191): Running back has been hit really hard by injury for the Mountaineers. I originally wrote this with different guys starting and now they have Diore Hubbard, Tye Edwards, and Jahiem White all out for this game. Bowers has 244 yards on the year, 4.2 yards an attempt, 2 touchdowns, and is a decent receiver out of the backfield with 7 catches and 130 yards.
WR Cam Vaughn (6-2/185): Vaughn is clearly the best receiver, largely because he can truly stretch the field, 33 catches, 541 yards, over 16 yards a catch and 4 touchdowns. He’s only catching 3 passes a game and averaging just 50 yards, but he’s obviously dangerous on the outside.
TE Grayson Barnes (6-4/223): Not exactly a great pass or run blocker, so maybe watch for this on the edge. Barnes has 20 receptions on the year for 199 yards so he is an option for West Virginia to move the sticks.
DT Edward Vesterinen (6-3/282) and DT Asani Redwood (6-3/296): Vesterinen is likely the best player on the team, that’s just my thought. He’s a very good run defender and can rush the passer, but it’s not what he does. Redwood is not a pass rusher, but he’s a solid tackler. Vesterinen has 25 tackles, 5 tackles for a loss and 2 sacks while Redwood has 2 quarterback hurries.
LB Reid Carrico (6-2/230): Carrico is maybe the best pass rusher even though he’s a middle linebacker. Carrico has 58 tackles, 6.5 tackles for a loss, 3.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hurries, and 1 pass broken up.
CB Michael Coats Jr. (5-10/185) and CB Jason Chambers (5-11/189): Coats is the best defender, a good pass rusher and run defender from the cornerback spot while being especially good in coverage. Chambers is close in terms of talent and probably a superb tackler. Coats has 27 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss and 6 passes broken up. Chambers has 1 pick, 32 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss and 4 passes broken up.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
The Edge Again: The left tackle, Nick Krahe, is a decent pass-blocker so watch that matchup with David Bailey. LG Donovan Haslam and C Landen Livingston are very good pass-blockers and we might see the inside defenders have issues getting it to the quarterback. The problem is that right tackle Ty’Kieast Crawford is not a good pass blocker and there’s a chance that Romello Height has a decent game. We’ll have to watch on which side West Virginia might chip someone to help.
Stop the Run: West Virginia runs 60% of the time and they are short running backs. That’s not a good combination. They are averaging 3.3 yards an attempt, which is 120th in the nation. Expect a heavy dose of running the ball and the linebackers will get a ton of work. I don’t know how successful the Mountaineers will be, but this appears to be who they are. And they run for 207 yards a game at home vs. 142 on the road with 6 additional attempts at home. They really lean into it.
Another Challenge to Run: This is actually a good defense, yet again. I always tend to look like Chicken Little when Texas Tech runs roughshod over an opponent, but they have been good and they do have some good run defenders in DE Devin Grant (6-2/265) and NT Nate Gabriel (6-3/295) along with Vesterinen.
Healthy Heading Into the Stretch: I think that if a player has been listed as questionable they will play for Texas Tech. Those questionable this week were WR Reggie Virgil and DT A.J. Holmes, Jr. (Holmes was moved to probable last night). Listed as probable are QB Behren Morton and WR Leyton Stone. That’s basically your injury list other than the players who are out for the year (Skyler Gill Howard, Maurion Horn, TJ West, and Roy Alexander). The week off has been good for Texas Tech from a health perspective.
Leave No Doubt: I feel that the team understands what’s in front of them, at least they should. This is time when Behren Morton should shine and where he needs to be better than the road version of himself, according to CFB Stats, Morton has a QB rating of 177 at home and just 139 on the road. Just 3 touchdowns and 3 picks for the year, while at home it is 14 to 1. Now is the time to make that statement because if things go like they should then this should be a team that plays more games in December. Morton needs to be great and I think he’s as healthy as he has been all year.
Video Notes: The West Virginia defensive lien seems small, but very quick . . . the quarterback is going to run and that is going to be a thing, designed runs and anything in-between. He’s a bigger quarterback with size . . . that West Virginia zone defense is a bit of a mess and they had trouble covering that tight end, which bodes well for a certain tight end for Texas Tech . . . that #16 for WVU looks huge (he’s only 211) but that was a terrible handoff on the zone defense for West Virginia . . . the linebacker covering the running back seems like another matchup that would bode well for Texas Tech . . . the WVU turnover on downs at the 1 was an absolute killer, but that line just couldn’t get the bocks off . . . a WVU blocked kick by #82 (he’s 6’6″) . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats: Beta Rank likes Texas Tech a lot and I think that this is the second week that Texas Tech has the No. 1 defense. West Virginia has been really good about minimizing disruptive plays so that will be interesting to see how the defense is able to create pressure, something they’ve done all year. If West Virginia stays to their 3rd down rate, as does the defense, that also bodes well I think. I mentioned above that this game is there for Morton to make a mark and the WVU pass defense isn’t great. There is opportunity here.
BCF hasn’t loved Texas Tech’s offense, but that’s okay, I still love the differeing opinions. It seems as if the advanced stats have West Virginia pretty much the same through all of them, sort of mid team on both offense and defense, maybe lesser on the offensive side for the year, but think that Fox has been better so that makes a difference.
It would appear that CFB Graphs likes Texas Tech quite a bit, especially in comparison. It is not a coincidence that the line is where it starts, I am almost certain that Vegas uses advanced stats to start the line.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
I’m terrible at picking games and at this point in the season, I haven’t watched one second of video other than the watch the highlights above. They’ve played relative close games for the past 4 weeks, the Mountaineers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread, and 4-1 at home against the spread this year. Historically, Texas Tech has had a difficult time in Morgantown. I believe that when McGuire said earlier this week that the team absolutely understand what they have in front of them. I still think this is a ton of points and I could see West Virginia attempting to shorten the game by running the ball a lot. I simply don’t know how successful they will be at running the ball. I’ll take Texas Tech, but not by 24 or more points.