Chapter 1: The Setting
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1, 8-1)
Bad Guys: BYU Cougars (11-1, 8-1)
Where: AT&T Stadium | Arlington, Texas
When: Saturday, December 6th @ 11:00 am
TV & Streaming: ABC
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -13.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | BYU
Weather Report: Mostly Sunny, High 58, Low 41
Chapter 2: The Cast
QB Bear Bachmeier (6-2/220): You probably feel like you already know these players, but we’re doing this again because that’s what we do. Bachmeier is a terrific runner and an improving passer and since he’s played Texas Tech, he’s been a bit up and down. A pretty good game against TCU where he threw for nearly 300 yards, a tough game against Cincinnati where he managed just 127, and another good game against UCF, throwing for 289. Just 1 touchdown against TCU and Cincinnati, but no interceptions since Texas Tech.
WR Parker Kingston (5-11/185): There’s a chance that WR Chase Roberts (6-4/210) may be out for this game (he’s listed as probable) so we’ll highlight Kingston who had a huge day against UCF, 6 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. He had a relatively quiet day against Texas Tech, but had 5 for 80 against TCU.
TE Carsen Ryan (6-4/250): Another guy that had a decent game against UCF, 5 for 85 yards and he had 4 for 79 against TCU as well. Ryan is an incredibly solid run blocker that is dangerous catching the ball as well.
LT Isaiah Jatta (6-6/315) and LG Sonny Makasini (6-4/315): Jatta and Makasini are BYU’s left side of the line and I’m sure that there’s going to be a plan for Romello Height and David Bailey, a better plan than the last time. I would fully expect BYU to chip and help with Ryan and LJ Martin, but Jatta and Makasini are really very good in their own right holding off pass rushers. Real damage could be done on the right side for Texas Tech, but this may be the best battle.
LB Jack Kelly (6-2/242): Kelly is maybe the most disruptive player for BYU, 52 tackles, 12.5 tackles for a loss, which includes 9 sacks, 7 quarterback hurries, 2 forced fumbles, and a pass broken up. He had 2 sacks and 3 QB hurries along with 1 of those forced fumbles against UCF.
DT John Taumoepeau (6-2/300): An absolute load in the middle, 37 tackles, just 1.5 tackles for a loss and half a sack, but Taumoepeau is the anchor for that BYU defensive line.
FS Tanner Wall (6-1/205) and SS Faletau Satuala: Wall is another big playmaker with 4 interceptions on the year, including returning 1 for a touchdown against TCU while adding 57 total tackles. Satuala has 3 interceptions and 71 tackles on the year along with 6.5 tackles for a loss, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 passes broken up. These are 2 very productive players for BYU and they make plays.
Chapter 3: The Conflict
Martin Running Strong: Since the Texas Tech game where he was coming off of a shoulder injury, he’s improved. Martin ran 21 times for 88 yards against TCU with a touchdown, then had a huge day against Cincinnati on the road, 32 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Then against UCF, where they were maybe having to throw the ball a bit, Martin ran for 95 on 22 carries with 3 touchdowns. I don’t know that he was fully healthy against Texas Tech the first time, but he appears to be now.
Morton Stepped Up: I wrote last week that Morton has been mid at best on the road and Morton did step up last week and he gets credit for that. Morton has the opportunity to do that yet again for Texas Tech in what is a very good BYU defense and I think the BYU defense will do similar things that both UCF and WVU did against the Texas Tech line. Morton struggled a bit to get rid of the ball just a couple of times against WVU and he got hit pretty hard as a result. Stay clean and upright.
Depending on the Run: I didn’t highlight LJ Martin (6-2/220) because I knew that I was going to write this portion, but for the year, Martin has 1,229 yards on 217 carries for 5.66 yards a carry, 102 yards a game with 11 touchdowns. The offense greatly relies on Martin and Bachmeier to run teams ragged and it’s worked like a charm for them for mostof the year. BYU’s offense is 33rd in the nation in points per play and 45th in yards per play, because the Cougars are 48th in the nation in rushing yards a game with 170 while the passing game supplements to an extent, 66th in the nation in passing yards per game and are 94th in the nation in passes per game. The Cougars want to run the ball.
Dependent on Turnovers: Both teams are terrific in not turning teams over and the Cougars were in the negative in just 3 games, -1 in an easy win against West Virginia, -1 in a close win over Arizona, and -3 in the loss to Texas Tech. That -3 stands out and I don’t expect BYU to have that kind of turnover problem again, but this will be the key to winning the game and if both teams stay clean, I think I like Texas Tech’s chances just slightly more. I’d also add that BYU’s kicker, Will Ferrin, is 22 of 28 on the year for 79% of field goals made and Stone Harrington and Upton Bellenfant are a combined 89%, Harrington is actually 86% overall, making 18 of 21 this year.
Video Notes: UCF’s ability to avoid the rush and miss in the zone defense helped UCF initially score. BYU sort of missed UCF receivers in coverage . . . Had no idea that Kingston was also a track guy . . . more coverage issues for BYU covering the running back out of the backfield . . . BYU gets going on offense with the tight end and running back pretty easily against that UCF defense . . . UCF tries a trick pass that gets picked off giving BYU great field position . . . the BYU kicker misses a pretty easy field goal . . . BYU really likes that tight end . . . Martin gets an easy touchdown from the 1 . . . Bachmeier runs that zone read really well . . . that direct snap to Martin is also a bit tricky and Bachmeier sells it as going over his head . . . the delayed blitz causes issues for UCF and it also has caused issues for Texas Tech . . . punt return by Kingston for a touchdown right up the middle of the field for BYU to punctuate the comeback . . . BYU went man coverage and that was a problem for UCF to just complete a pass . . . a trick play for UCF left the QB wide open for a TD . . . Kingston makes a huge TD on a pretty simple slant . . . BYU kicker also missed from 48 . . . BYU had issues covering the RB out of the backfield . . . BYU kicker made from 50 . . .
Chapter 4: The Charts & Graphs
Uniforms:
Stats: I don’t feel that I need to get too deep on the stats since these teams saw each other not that long ago. I like Texas Tech’s 3rd down rate and overall offense, but I don’t remember it being this neck-and-neck. The defense favors Texas Tech, but BYU isn’t bad by any means. The disruptive plays killed BYU the last game (allowing them) and both defenses have been great on 3rd downs.
Again, both teams are really good.
CFB graphs predicts a closer game for sure.
Chapter 5: The Conclusion
CFB Data says that Texas Tech has a very good chance to win, but the spread will be closer, while SP+ says that Texas Tech wins by 11.7 points, which gives me just enough justification to continue doing the same thing I’ve done all year, which is pick Texas Tech straight up, but the points are too much.