Preview & Game Day Thread: Texas Tech vs. Iowa State

Game Info

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-7, 11-4)
Bad Guys: Iowa State Cyclones (24-4, 11-4)
When to Watch: Saturday, February 28th @ 3:00 pm
Where to Watch: Hilton Coliseum | Ames, Iowa
How to Watch: CBS
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | Varsity Network
The Line: Iowa State -9.5

Advanced Stats

TEXAS TECH
STAT
IOWA STATE
16
KenPom
7
11
KP AdjO
18
31
KP AdjD
7
10
T-Rank
9
8
T-Rank O
19
23
T-Rank D
8
18
Haslemetric
8

Lineups

TEXAS TECH
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Christian Anderson (6-3/178) 19.6 / 7.7*
SHOOTING GUARD Jaylen Petty (6-1/168) 9.0 / 3.7
SMALL FORWARD Donovan Atwell (6-5/200) 13.0 / 3.3
POWER FORWARD LeJuan Watts (6-6/225) 12.2 / 6.0
CENTER Luke Bamgboye (6-11/220) 4.6 / 3.3
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Tyeree Bryan (6-5/215) 3.7 / 2.7
SEVENTH MAN Josiah Moseley (6-8/225) 3.3 / 2.9
EIGHTH MAN Marial Akuentok (6-11/240) 1.7 / 2.3
NINTH MAN Leon Horner (6-4/215) 2.7 / 2.2
TENTH MAN Jazz Henderson (5-11/180) 0.7 / 0.3
ELEVENTH MAN Nolan Groves (6-5/205) 1.0 / 1.3
TWELFTH MAN Jack Francis (6-3/180) 0.0 / 0.3
THIRTEENTH MAN LaTrell Hoover (7-0/230) – / –
FOURTEENTH MAN JT Toppin (6-9/230) Out For Year
IOWA STATE
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Tamin Lipsey (6-1/200) 13.0 / 5.2*
SHOOTING GUARD Killyan Toure (6-3/205) 8.9 / 3.4
SMALL FORWARD Milan Momcilovic (6-8/225) 17.4 / 3.2
POWER FORWARD Joshua Jefferson (6-9/240) 16.6 / 7.5
CENTER Dominykas Pleta (6-11/240) 4.4 / 2.1
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Nate Heise (6-5/212) 5.3 / 4.0
SEVENTH MAN Jamarion Batemon (6-3/195) 6.6 / 1.3
EIGHTH MAN Blake Buchanan (6-10/235) 8.3 / 5.6
NINTH MAN – (-/-) 1.7 / 1.7
TENTH MAN – (-/-) – / –

* Assists.

Starting 5

1. Stats. This will not be easy! Iowa State is terrific offensively, they hit almost every metric in a good way except for two. Let’s get to the good stuff first. The Cyclones are 6th in 3-point shooting, 40th in 2-point shooting, 77th in turnover percentage, and 33rd in offensive rebounding. The only downside to the offense is that they don’t get to the line very often, 184th, and are not a good free throw shooting team, 340th. The defense is a junk yard dog, they are 7th in forcing teams to turn the ball over, 20th in opponent free throw rate, 59th in opponent 3-point shooting, and 93rd in opponent 2-point shooting.

2. Scouting. Iowa State has not lost at home, all losses are on the road including a 10 point loss last Saturday to BYU. Momcilovic is a scorer that shoots the ball incredibly efficiently, 56% in 2-point makes, 51% in 3-point makes, and a low turnover guy as well. Jefferson is maybe one of the more versatile players in the nation, not necessarily a great shooter (he’s fine, just not like Momcilivic), but he’s a high level passer at the forward position, and a very good rebounder. Tipsey has been really good for multiple years and another good passer as well as a good shooter inside the arc, 56%, but inside the arc he’s struggling, 29%. Now that I’m looking at it Momcilovic is such a good shooter that as a team, Iowa State is a good shooter.

3. How They Match Up. This will be a tough game and it would have been tough even with Toppin. The recent turnover issues for Texas Tech, particularly Anderson, give me a pause for concern considering how good they are at something like that. Texas Tech isn’t a high turnover team, but Iowa State is highly aggressive at turnovers. Texas Tech should be able to keep pace on offense, but I’ll be interested to see how and who guards Anderson. I think they’ll try to wear him down. Advanced stats say that ISU winsy by 5.6, but the line is higher than that.

4. lagniappe | something given as a bonus or extra gift.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese: Texas Tech basketball’s LeJuan Watts stepping up when Red Raiders need him most

Watts has averaged 16 points on 10-of-18 shooting in wins over Kansas State and Cincinnati. His stats, though, tell only part of the story, one that predates Toppin’s injury, about the growth factor McCasland has been looking for since the summer.

“It’s been gradual up to this point,” McCasland said after the 80-68 win over Cincinnati, “but I think he’s an anchor on us where before was kind of the third option. Now I feel like he’s one-two, and I’ve really squeezed him, to be honest. I’ve challenged him not from a scheme standpoint, but from an individual development standpoint to really fight to get on balance, to shoot on balance shots.”

De Moines Register’s Eugene Rapay: Iowa State basketball vs Texas Tech prediction, 3 keys to the game

A Toppin-less Texas Tech team should not be taken lightly.

Iowa State will need to win on the boards, an area it fell short in its marquee matchup at BYU. The Red Raiders are a solid rebounding team on both ends, and the Cyclones can’t afford to give away extra possessions or momentum-boosting plays.

Defensively, the Cyclones need to be disruptive and force turnovers. Texas Tech does a good job of taking care of the ball, with a turnover rate of 15.4% (83rd-best in the country). However, Anderson has stretches where he can be careless with the ball, like a six-turnover outing against Cincinnati or his seven giveaways in the Feb. 17 loss to Arizona State.

Texas Tech had 13 or more turnovers in three of its four Big 12 losses. Houston, UCF and Arizona State all made sure to make the Red Raiders pay by turning those opportunities into points the other way. Iowa State needs to channel a similar effort.

5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:

With three top 10 wins already this season, No. 16 Texas Tech goes for its fourth this weekend in a matchup against No. 4 Iowa State at 3 p.m. on Saturday at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. Part of a four-way tie for second in the Big 12 standings, the Red Raiders (21-7, 11-4 Big 12) are on a two-game winning streak and 4-3 on the road in conference play while the Cyclones (24-4, 11-4 Big 12) are 15-0 at home entering the game. Along with identical conference records, Tech and Iowa State lead the Big 12 by both shooting 39.2% on 3-pointers. Tech is 319-for-813 (39.2%) and Iowa State is 250-for-537 (39.2%) entering the game from beyond the arc.

“They’re one of the best defensive teams in the country and one of the most connected,” Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland said. “They haven’t lost a home game and present all kinds of challenges. They have great senior leadership, are tough and are competitive in every aspect of the game. They’re really well-coached and these games are always about staying together and finding a way to be connected through adversity. We’re going to have to play our best to put ourselves in position to win the game.”

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