Game Preview: Texas Tech vs. Colorado

Game Details

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-0, 1-0)
Bad Guys: Colorado Buffaloes (2-2, 0-1)
Where: Folsom Field | Boulder, Colorado
When: Saturday, October 3rd @ 6:30 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -13
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Colorado
Weather Report: Partly Cloudy, High 84 Low 49

Key Players for Houston

#18 QB Julian Lewis (6-1/190) & #16 QB Isaac Wilson (6-0/210): We’ll talk a bit about Lewis, who will be replaced by Wilson for the Texas Tech game. Lewis struggled to get the ball down the field and stretch things out. He completed 64% of his passes, 7.7 yards per attempt, 6 touchdowns and 2 picks. Not inspiring, but not terrible. In very limited time, Wilson completed 52% of his passes, 4.7 yards per attempt and 1 touchdown. I don’t know that we can gleam a ton from these stats because that’s just on 27 attempts.

#29 RB Micah Welch (5-9/215): Welch is a load and effective, over 5 yards a carry and gets about 10 carries agame for 50+ yards a game with 2 touchdowns. Welch shares time with JaQuail Smith (5-11/170) and Damian Henderson (6-2/205), who both have very different body types, but are also very good.

#3 WR DeAndre Moore, Jr. (6-0/190) & #8 WR Joseph Williams (6-2/200): Williams is from Arlington originally, averages about 16 yards a catch and has 5.5 receptions a game with 4 touchdowns this season. Moore averages 13 yards a catch, 3.8 receptions a game with a touchdown. These are the two main receivers.

#97 DT Santana Hopper (6-2/265) | #53 DE Toby Anene (6-4/260) | #99 NT Dylan Manuel (6-1/300) | #56 DE Lamont Lester, Jr. (6-2/230): A very talented defensive line, the best position group of the team in my opinion. Hopper has just 8 tackles, but 4 TFL and a sack thus far while his DT mate Manuel, he has 9 tackles and 1.5 TFL. The two ends, Anene has 12 tackles, 4.5 TFL, and 2 sacks with 5 QB hurries, while Lester has 9 tackles, 6 TFL, 4 sacks, and 2 QB hurries.

#44 LB Gideon ESPN Lampron (6-0/220): That’s not a typo and that is his real name. Lampron is the 3rd leading tackler, 27 on the season, 3.5 TFL, 6 QB hurries, and a pass broken up.

#7 SS Randon Fontenette (6-2/220): The leading tackler for the Buffs, 30 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 QB hurries, and 1 passes broken up as well as an interception.

Seth C’s Thoughts on the Game

Let’s Get Healthier. I think Texas Tech is getting there:

OUT
CB #16 Ashton Hampton
LB #35 Adam Hill
OL #77 Elias Gillen

QUESTIONABLE
TE #7 Terrance Carter Jr.

PROBABLE
S #0 Mikal Harrison-Pilot
S #5 Oliver Miles III
CB #14 Brice Pollock
LB #15 Austin Romaine
S #21 Miquel Dingle Jr.
CB #27 Amier Boyd
OL #52 Cash Cleveland
OL #79 Howard Sampson

And last night, head coach Joey McGuire said that Carter will be back. This may be as healthy as Texas Tech has been and that’s a good thing.

Exercise Some Demons. I have terrible memories of playing Colorado and just not being able to figure them out. Colorado leads the series 6-5 and in Boulder, the Buffs are 4-1. Regardless of what the team looks like and whether or not Texas Tech is better, Texas Tech has a tough time in Boulder.

Offensive Line Test. I mentioned above that that the defensive line is maybe the best position group on the team and this will be a test. The Buffs don’t allow a ton on the ground, just 3 yards a rush. The Texas Tech offense is better than you maybe think, 4.8 yards a rush and are averaging 180 yards a game, good for 33rd.

Planning for Wilson. I’m not exactly sure how to plan for Wilson and presume that he’s going to be similar to his brother. And Wilson actually played 9 games back in 2024 for Utah, where he was similar to the stats that he’s displaying, completing 56% of his passes, 6.7 yards an attempt, 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Wilson is a good athlete, but he was probably hanging onto the ball way too much and barely averaged a yard a rush. Of course, he was a freshman for this seasons so the thought is that he’s improved and Texas Tech is lucky enough to find that out.

Stop Turning the Ball Over. I don’t have a ton to say about this other than stop it. Just stop. Texas Tech has 6 turnovers on defense and 8, yes 8, on offense.

Video Notes

I do think that the offensive line will have their hands full . . . the Colorado offense is fast, but the offensive line has some issues protecting their quarterback and the defensive line should have some opportunities . . . I do not understand how Colorado can talk so much trash . . . it is a full on fire drill watching the offensive line protect whoever is at quarterback for Colorado . . . I think Wilson has a slightly stronger arm than Lewis and he will definitely test the side of the field more than Lewis . . .

Uniforms:

Cherry on top 🍒 pic.twitter.com/XfNPSs8owh

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) October 1, 2026

Stats:

Sharp Football

CFB Depth

BCF Toys & ESPN

Definitions:
PPA (Predicted Points Added): It looks at the down, distance, and field position before a run play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position after the play. Passing is usually more efficient than running in modern football. Rushing PPA helps analysts see which teams actually run effectively instead of just wasting downs. For passing, a successful completion that gains a first down or moves closer to scoring adds positive points.

Havoc Rate: Bill Connelly—that measures how often a defense makes a disruptive play. It is calculated by taking total havoc plays and dividing them by total defensive snaps.

Line Yards: Line Yards is an advanced football statistic that estimates how many rushing yards an offensive line produces on a run play, separate from the running back’s own skill.

Stuff Rate: Stuff rate in American football is the percentage of rushing plays that a defense stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Power Success is an advanced football metric that measures the percentage of short-yardage running plays where an offense successfully gets a first down or a touchdown.

FEI: (Fremeau Efficiency Index team ratings) Opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent

Poll & Prediction

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Had to change up the poll site because they wanted to charge a fee. I do think that Texas Tech is better IF (and that’s a capital “if”) the offense doesn’t turn the ball over on the road. I’m running out of time this morning and I do think that this game is as simple as not turning the ball over because I do think that Texas Tech is better.