7 Points Preview: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State

Road game #2.

1. Game Info

Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2, 1-1)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0, 1-0)
October 8th @ 2:30 p.m.
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Oklahoma State -9.5
FS1 | FOX Sports Live
Partly Cloudy 74-53

2. Stats

Advanced Stats: The only outlier is Sharp Football and it doesn’t make any sense, right. Everyone else seem to have it one way and I simply canot explain why Sharp has Texas Tech ranked higher. Or maybe everyone else is wrong!

Texas Tech Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense: This is almost crazy enought to not make sense, but we’re going to make sense of it. What this says is that Texas Tech’s strength, pass efficiency and not getting into negative drives are two of Oklahoma State’s weaknesses. Oklahoma State is great at stopping the run and these two teams are good at drive efficiency.

Texas Tech Defense vs. Oklahoma State Offense: The Texas Tech defense is good? I think this is what this is saying and other than FEI and play efficiency, Texas Tech has a lot of statistical advantages.

3. Positional Battles

  • WR Braydon Johnson leads Oklahoma State with 17 catches, 360 yards, 21.18 yards per catch and 3 touchdowns and Brennan Presley is right behind him with 20 catches, 252 yards, 12.60 yards a catch and 1 touchdown. If you want to want some nostalgia, former TAMU quarterback Bucky Richardson has a kid, John Paul Richardson and he’s a receiver too. The defensive backs have been really good thus far, but Johnson is special and that will be what I watch.
  • The running attack is essentially Dominic Richardson and Sanders. Richardson has 288 yards on the season with 3 touchdowns, 4.3 yards per attempt and about 72 yards a game. Sanders is averaging about 46 yards a game with 4 touchdowns and 4.5 yards per average. After the tough week against Kansas State, the linebackers will need to step up significantly because the big plays were an absolute killer last week. Maybe explosive plays is maybe a better explanation, but that’s going to be key for Texas Tech.
  • I had completely forgotten that former Red Raider Xavier Benson transferred to Oklahoma State and believe it or not, he’s starting. He’s got 26 tackles on the season and 3 quarterback hurries. My guess is that the linebackers will add pressure as Benson and linebacker Mason Cobb will add the pressure. Cobb has 30 tackles, 7 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, and 5 quarterback hurries. Defensive end Brock Martin has 14 tackles, 3.0 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, and 4 quarterback hurries. Without question, I’d guess that the Oklahoma State defenders are salivating at the pressure they can and should bring against the Texas Tech offensive line. It was telling that McGuire was asked about left tackle and that Ty Buchanan is now backing up Caleb Rogers.

4. Keys to the Game

Key #1: Special Teams Yards: Oklahoma State is 5th in the nation in scoring offense, but only 20th in total offense. I think that Oklahoma State is having quite a bit of success in the return game, 6th in the nation in kickoff returns and 27th in punt returns in the nation. Those additional yards are just as important as traditional yards in offense and the other crazy part is that they are 121st in time of possession. They also don’t hurt themselves as they are 10th in the nation in penalties per game (10th fewest).

Key #2: Tough 3rd Down Defense: Getting opposing offense off the field is incredibly important and Oklahoma State is 7th in the nation in 3rd down conversion’s allowed, good for just 24% of third downs converted. Add to the equation that Oklahoma State is 24th in first down defense, that’s where it starts, which is force long third downs then capitalize on third downs.

Key #3: Capitalize on First Downs: Texas Tech is 3rd in the nation on first down offense. Texas Tech is moving the chains, but they aren’t getting the ball in the endzone probably as much as Joey McGuire would like. The Red Raiders are 38th in scoring offense, so not terrible.

5. Burning Question

Can Texas Tech win on the road? This is getting over the hump. Teams that win on the road are teams that are consistent winners in their respective conference and separate themselves from the others. Texas Tech hasn’t had the easiest road to winning on the road, playing 3 ranked opponents and are 0-2 thus far. In fact, the averaged margin of loss is 11 points and with the line opening up at 13.5 point underdogs, I think Vegas was looking at that more than anything else.

6. Lagniappe

lagniappe | something given as a bonus or extra gift

Kansas State grades were not great, a lot of orange on the offensive side.

The bestest of uniforms.

Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Don Williams: Texas Tech’s X factor: Xavier White ready when and where Raiders need him

Athlon Sports: Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Cowboys Look to Stay Undefeated

AP: No. 7 Oklahoma St hopes to avoid slip-up against Texas Tech

College Football News: Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech Prediction, Game Preview

PFF: 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Texans take QB C.J. Stroud at No. 1, Bears opt for QB Bryce Young at No. 4

The Vikings add another long edge rusher to the fold to keep the heat on opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is a freakishly long 6-foot-6, 275-pound edge rusher who is only scratching the surface of what he can do on the field. He’s notched 27 pressures already through five games this season as he continues to climb up draft boards.

7. Prediction

I am feeling less confident about Texas Tech on the road and with that spread. It currently sits at -9.5 and Texas Tech’s inability to score. Oklahoma State is probably in the lead for best team in the Big 12 along with TCU. I’ll take the points this one last time on the road until Texas Tech is able to snap out of their road doldrums. I’m picking Oklahoma State to win and Texas Tech to cover (against my better judgement).


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