Game Preview: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati

Game Details

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0, 3-0)
Bad Guys: Cincinnati Bearcats (4-2, 1-2)
Where: Nippert Stadium | Cincinnati, Ohio
When: Saturday, October 24th @ 11:00 am
TV & Streaming: FS1
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -11.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Cincinnati
Weather Report: Sunny, 72-42

Key Players for Cincinnati

#4 QB JC French IV (6-1/205): French previously played at Georgia Southern and is a good quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over. Completes 71% of his passes for 8.7 yards an attempt with 9 touchdowns and no picks thus far. He averages about 4 yards a carry and he will run, 10.5 rushes per game and 6 touchdowns.

#3 RB Cole Tabb (5-8/200): Tabb transferred from Stanford, but he’s been a huge part of the rushing offense along with Gi’Bran Payne. Tabb is electric, 448 yards thus far this year, but 9.14 yards a carry and 8 touchdowns this year.

#11 WR JV Gibson (6-2/208): Gibson is the main threat for Cincy, 342 receiving yards, a13.68 yards a catch with 4 touchdowns. Watch out for Malachi Henry who averages 33 yards a catch.

#22 LB Jonathan Thompson (6-2/228) & #31 LB Simeon Coleman (5-11/225): Thompson is the leading tackler for the Bearcats, 53 tackles, 6 tackles for a loss, which includes 2.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hurries and 2 forced fumbles, while Coleman has 40 tackles, 2.5 tackles for a loss, 1.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.

#0 CB Jacob Finley (6-0/190) & #8 CB Kenny Worthy (6-0/188): Finley and Worthy make a decent cornerback duo, Finley has 29 tackles and 4 passes broken up along with a forced fumble and Worthy has 16 tackles, 1 pick, 1 pass broken up and 1 QB Hurry.

#18 FS Jasper Beeler (6-1/194): Beeler isn’t as active as initially though when putting this together, although he does have 42 tackles, 2.5 tackles for a loss and a pass broken up.

Seth C’s Thoughts on the Game

Watch the Cincinnati Offensive Line. This is THE matchup to watch this game. Cincinnati is 15th in the nation at 5.2 yards per rush and they run a lot, 37 carries a game which is 51st while they run for 194 yards a game, which is 24th. Cincinnati is going to try to impose their will on Texas Tech and Texas Tech will try to stop it. The Texas Tech defense is no slouch as teams simply don’t like to run on Texas Tech, 11th in the nation in yards per rush, and 4th in the nation in yards per game. Remember the names: LT Joe Cotton (6-6/320), LG Evan Tengesdahl (6-3/325), C Taran Tyon (6-3/325), RG Xavier Lozowicki (6-5/32), and RT Judea Milon (6-4/300).

Opportunities in the Pass Defense. Texas Tech’s offense will need to show up and there is opportunity there, including Cincinnati having some issues stopping the pass. Teams are completing 63% of passes and throwing 8.7 yards per attempt along with 320 yards a game against the Bearcats. They haven’t picked off many passes either

Third Down Opportunities. There are opportunities to be had on defense, Cincinnati is 130th in opponent 3rd down conversion at 51%. I’d also add that there is an opportunity for the Texas Tech defense to do something and stop Cincinnati as they are 31st in the nation in converting 3rd downs at a 45% rate.

Get to French. Cincinnati is 91st in getting the quarterback sacked and as it correlates to the 3rd down rate, get the Bearcats in bad spots and that helps that 3rd down rate.

Availability Report.

OUT
WR #6 Jalen Jones
RB #8 Cameron Dickey
WR #9 Donte Lee Jr.
CB #18 S’Vioarean Martin
OL #57 Hunter Zambrano
OL #77 Elias Gillen

QUESTIONABLE
S #3 Peyton Morgan
S #23 Maddox Quiller

PROBABLE
OLB #8 Jamond Mathis
OL #50 Patrick McMath
OL #54 Jordan Church
OL #79 Howard Sampson

Video Notes

Cincinnati went toe-to-toe with West Virginia in Morgantown as the game ended with a Mountaineer 45-42 win . . . Texas Tech will have to stay in their lanes and watch for French and the short passing game is going to be the key to the offense and the Bearcats are great at getting in space . . . the Cincinnati defense has issues with misdirection and coverage in space . . . Could this be a game where Hammond’s legs make a big impact? . . . Cincinnati is going to figure out how to run the ball multiple ways . . . Tabb is a really tough and strong runner . . . the Cincinnati defense did have some trouble with play-action, but that’s probably going to rely on getting the running game going . . .

Uniforms:

Stats:

Sharp Football

CFB Depth

BCF Toys & ESPN

Definitions:
PPA (Predicted Points Added): It looks at the down, distance, and field position before a run play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position after the play. Passing is usually more efficient than running in modern football. Rushing PPA helps analysts see which teams actually run effectively instead of just wasting downs. For passing, a successful completion that gains a first down or moves closer to scoring adds positive points.

Havoc Rate: Bill Connelly—that measures how often a defense makes a disruptive play. It is calculated by taking total havoc plays and dividing them by total defensive snaps.

Line Yards: Line Yards is an advanced football statistic that estimates how many rushing yards an offensive line produces on a run play, separate from the running back’s own skill.

Stuff Rate: Stuff rate in American football is the percentage of rushing plays that a defense stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Power Success is an advanced football metric that measures the percentage of short-yardage running plays where an offense successfully gets a first down or a touchdown.

FEI: (Fremeau Efficiency Index team ratings) Opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent

Poll & Prediction

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I’m running out of time . . . yet again. The line has moved around a bit moving to -10.5 and now sits where it started. I think that 11.5 is too rich, much like last week, but I don’t know how the offense is going to play on the road. I think the defense will travel and that’s going to be a good matchup. I’ll take Texas Tech, but not those points.