Point 1: Key Player
|Key Stats:||Lots of blocks.|
Brown should be matched up against Baylor’s Jamal Palmer (6-3/250), the unsung defensive end opposite of Shawn Oakman. I haven’t noticed that Baylor moves Oakman around a ton, but the problem with Oakman is that lots of times you need a double-team and that ends up freeing Palmer for 5 tackles for a loss, which is .5 behind the team leader and is tied for 2 sacks thus far, which ties Oakman. The entire offensive line will need to be a bit better than last week and they’re going to have to work their tails off to protect whoever is playing quarterback and Brown will have to match up with Palmer one-on-one.
Point 2: Uniform Tracker
|Sam Houston State||W, 59-45|
Point 3: Keys to the Game
Via Football Study Hall, statistically, Texas Tech’s offense is 2nd in S&P+ and 3rd in points per game, while the defense is 118th in defensive S&P+ and 108th in points. I’m setting you up, so just go along with it. In terms of the five factors focused as presented by Football Study Hall, Texas Tech is, without question, an elite offense, ranking 5th in explosiveness, 9th in efficiency, 78th in field position and 8th in finishing drives. The Texas Tech defense is 51st in explosiveness (or allowing it in each instance), 124th in efficiency, 34th in field position and 109th in finishing drives.
Baylor on the other hand, is 1st in offensive S&P+ and points per game, while the defense is 94th in defensive S&P+ and 57th in points per game. Other outlier stats show that Baylor isn’t great at controlling field position, at 116th in the nation. There are yards to get there.
The idea here is that despite the good yards per game numbers (detailed below), the Baylor defense has not performed at a high level. There’s real opportunity here for Texas Tech to see what stats Baylor actually is, are they the yards per game stats or the advanced stats.
Point 4: Texas Tech Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Texas Tech, at least after 4 games, is an elite offense and it’s really just getting started. Statistically, Baylor has a good defense, but Texas Tech is elite. Those conversion percentages are terrific.
Point 5: Texas Tech Defense vs. Baylor Offense
Oh, hey, the Baylor offense is elite too, so have fun with that and the Texas Tech defense is struggling. Baylor is getting behind the line of scrimmage at a high rate.
Point 6: A Look at the Baylor Offense
The first screenshot is okay, but the second I did a poor job of capturing the idea. What we’re looking out here is a pretty standard play with 10 personnel and the right side of the field all headed downfield with the running back and the left receiver staying back. The guy at the bottom of the screen is going to slip inside and Russell is going hit him in stride for a terrific touchdown.
Again, I’ve done a poor job of capturing what happens, but it’s really a pretty play, the receiver slips underneath and it’s a tough cover.
This is a designed run, almost a quarterback draw as the right tackle, 69, peels off his block and is essentially the lead blocker. It’s really a perfect call considering the open field.
This is one of those patented inside run plays with the running back having just received the ball and he’s going to follow the fullback, who is going to blow out the linebacker and it’s church. That’s what happens when you spread out a defense.
This is that patented pop pass play for Baylor where Russell fakes the hand off and the tight end breaks free, eventually.
As you can see, the Baylor left guard is 4 yards down the field and the tight end is running the seam for a long gain.
Point 7: A Look at the Baylor Defense
Nothing special here except that it’s an interesting formation for Rice and what ends up happening is Oakman just caves the left tackle and gets the sack. There is just one safety deep other than the guy at the 41.
Baylor is playing 9 defenders within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage, so they’re playing tight, but they all end up retreating. This actually ends up being a nice play for Rice, but is ruined by a fumble.
The Rice quarterback sees a ton of field and I think something like this is going to be open quite a bit for Texas Tech. Baylor will have to play two safeties deep.
Another play where Baylor is playing tight, especially at the slot and they’re bringing 6 defenders and if Baylor knows that Mahomes isn’t 100%, then I could see this quite a bit too. If he can dodge the initial rush, it could be huge for Texas Tech.
The next two shots go together, again, as Baylor plays 2 receivers tight and Baylor again rushes 7 players (I think). The Rice offensive linemen are overwhelmed.