By the Numbers: Texas Tech’s Season Outlook (Week 4)

Texas Tech had a rough go of it last week. The Red Raiders suffered arguably their worst loss of the season at TCU and missed an opportunity to bolster their resume against a good Kentucky team. There’s no let up this week, as Tech faces off against two more great opponents in West Virginia and Kansas.

Some fans don’t seem to realize that Texas Tech is firmly on the bubble of reaching the NCAA Tournament (more on that later). Two more losses this week and the Red Raiders will be sitting at 12-9 with just one quality win over Louisville. That’s a dangerous place to be with only the second half of conference play remaining on the schedule. Let’s dive into the analytics.


ESPN Basketball Power Index

BPI predicts the margin of victory for a team against an “average” team on a neutral court. Here is how the Big 12 stacks up nationally.

National Rank Team BPI
2 Kansas 17.3
7 Baylor 14.2
8 W. Virginia 14.2
30 Texas Tech 10.6
61 Oklahoma 7.1
66 Iowa St 6.9
75 Texas 6.2
77 Oklahoma St 6.2
83 TCU 5.8
97 Kansas St 4.8


BPI predicts individual game outcomes as well. Here are Texas Tech’s odds to win each conference game. I’ve added a column showing the difference in predicted win percentage from last week.

Opponent Chance to Win (%) Difference
W. Virginia 53 -11.6
@ Kansas 11.9 -4.3
Oklahoma 78.5 -4.3
@ Texas 55.5 -1
TCU 85.5 -2.9
@ Oklahoma St 56.3 -0.8
Kansas St 85.8 -2
@ Iowa St 48.6 -4.9
@ Oklahoma 51.6 -3.9
Texas 81.5 -0.2
@ Baylor 20.8 -4.5
Kansas 33.8 -8.1


In all 12 of its remaining conference games, Texas Tech’s odds decreased from last week. The average remaining win percentage is 55.2 percent, which we can use to calculate the probability of Texas Tech’s final conference record (I excluded possible records with less than a 4 percent chance of happening).

Record Probability (%)
7-11 7.6
8-10 14.9
9-9 21.2
10-8 22.2
11-7 17
12-6 9.2


Ken Pomeroy

“KenPom” is one of the most widely cited and well respected models for college basketball. Here is how KenPom has the Big 12 stacked up nationally.

National Rank Team KenPom Rating
1 Kansas 30.7
4 Baylor 26
6 W. Virginia 25.4
30 Texas Tech 17.4
45 Oklahoma 14.3
61 TCU 11.6
63 Iowa St 11.5
71 Texas 10.5
79 Oklahoma St 9.8
88 Kansas St 8.4



Sagarin is a model that predicts outcomes for many sports, including college basketball. Here’s how it has the Big 12 stacked up nationally.

National Rank Team Sagarin Rating
1 Kansas 93.3
3 Baylor 91.5
12 W. Virginia 88.3
39 Texas Tech 84.4
43 Oklahoma 83.7
55 TCU 81.7
56 Iowa St 81.6
66 Texas 80.7
74 Oklahoma St 79.9
78 Kansas St 79.2



Eric Haslam has a model that predicts outcomes for every team in the country if it were to play any other team in the country on a home court, at a neutral site, or on the road. Here are his score predictions for Texas Tech’s two games this week.

  • Texas Tech 60, West Virginia 64
  • Texas Tech 53.6, Kansas 69.5


Tourney Talk

  • NET ranking: 38
    • This is extremely borderline for a bubble team, and is down 13 spots from last week. Simply stated, it needs to improve as this is an important metric for the selection committee.
  • RPI rating: 88
    • RPI isn’t as important as other metrics, but this is down 12 spots from last week and is only good for 8th best in the Big 12.
  • Bracket Matrix: 10 seed
    • Texas Tech is one of the last eight teams “in” right now, according to the Bracket Matrix. A little too close for comfort.

Texas Tech is running out of opportunities for good wins. Setting aside the team’s worst losses to DePaul (BPI 95, KenPom 69) and TCU (BPI 83, KenPom 61), the Red Raiders missed out on multiple opportunities for some solid resume and record boosters:

  • Lost to Iowa (BPI 18, KenPom 14) on a neutral court with Ramsey injured
  • Lost to Creighton (BPI 44, KenPom 29) on a neutral court in overtime (also with Ramsey injured)
  • Lost to Baylor (BPI 7, KenPom 4) at home by 5
  • Lost to Kentucky at home in overtime

It’s not a stretch at all to think Tech could have won two or three from the bulleted list above, and I think Tech beats DePaul and TCU about 80 percent of the time. At some point, the close games need to turn into wins. The best chance for remaining quality wins are West Virginia at home (tonight) and the season finale against Kansas in Lubbock. I really don’t want to be unsure of Texas Tech’s postseason fate with a road trip to Waco and then welcoming the Jayhawks to Lubbock as the last two games on the schedule.


Analytics and Gambling

As I mentioned last week, I’ve been tracking how BPI, Haslam, and Sagarin are performing against the spread (ATS) with their Texas Tech predictions. Through six conference games plus Kentucky, here’s what I have:

  • Texas Tech ATS: 3-4
  • BPI ATS: 3-4
  • Haslam ATS: 3-4
  • Sagarin ATS: 6-1

The spread tonight is Texas Tech -2.5. Haslam and Sagarin are giving West Virginia a slight edge (less than one point) to win straight up, and BPI favors Tech by less than one point.


The Latest

To Top