Preview & Game Day Thread: Baylor vs. Texas Tech

Game Info

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-7, 0-5)
Bad Guys: Baylor Bears (12-6, 2-3)
When to Watch: Tuesday, January 17th @ 8:00 pm
Where to Watch: United Supermarkets Arena | Lubbock, TX
How to Watch: ESPNU | WatchESPN
How to Listen: 97.3 FM | Affiliates | TuneIn App
The Line: Texas Tech -1.5

Advanced Stats

TEXAS TECH STAT BAYLOR
59
KenPom
16
92
KP AdjO
8
31
KP AdjD
77
47
T-Rank
17
104
T-Rank O
12
24
T-Rank D
70
55
Haslemetric
15

Lineups

TEXAS TECH
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD De’Vion Harmon (6-2/205) 12.5 / 3.5*
SHOOTING GUARD Richard Isaacs (6-2/170) 11.9 / 2.8*
SMALL FORWARD Jaylon Tyson (6-6/210) 9.4 / 5.5
POWER FORWARD Kevin Obanor (6-8/235) 15.4 / 6.3
CENTER Fardaws Aimaq (6-11/245) 12.0 / 5.8
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Daniel Batcho (6-11/235) 10.4 / 7.3
SEVENTH MAN Lamar Washington (6-4/205) 3.8 / 2.2*
EIGHTH MAN KJ Allen (6-6/255) 3.7 / 2.9
NINTH MAN Kerwin Walton (6-5/200) 3.1 / 1.1
TENTH MAN Elijah Fisher (6-6/190) 3.0 / 1.3
ELEVENTH MAN D’Maurian Willaims (6-3/200) 4.0 / 1.6
TWELFTH MAN Robert Jennings (6-7/225) 3.1 / 2.1
THIRTEENTH MAN CJ Williams (6-1/155) 1.2 / 0.5
BAYLOR
THE STARTERS Pts / Reb
POINT GUARD Adam Flagler (6-3/185) 16.5 / 5.3*
SHOOTING GUARD LJ Cryer (6-1/190) 13.9 / 2.1
SMALL FORWARD Keyonte George (6-4/185) 17.2 / 4.8
POWER FORWARD Jalen Bridges (6-7/225) 9.1 / 5.4
CENTER Flo Thamba (6-10/250) 5.6 / 5.2
THE BENCH Pts / Reb
SIXTH MAN Josh Ojianwuna (6-10/230) 5.8 / 4.2
SEVENTH MAN Langston Love (6-5/210) 6.7 / 2.3
EIGHTH MAN Caleb Lohner (6-8/235) 4.8 / 4.5
NINTH MAN Dale Bonner (6-2/170) 4.8 / 3.5*
TENTH MAN – (-/-) – / –

* Assists.

Starting 5

1. Stats. Baylor’s magic elixir in terms of being really good at offense is that they are 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding, 19th in the nation in free throw rate, and 42nd in 2-point shooting. That’s what gets you 12th overall. The Bears are 224th in turnover percentage, so they are turning the ball over (not quite like Texas Tech) and do make a decent amount of 3-point shots, 71st in the nation, but the above is where they make hay. Defensively, not as good as in prior years. Baylor is 55th in turnover percentage and sort of middling everywhere else. They do put teams on the line quite a bit, 269th in opponent free throw rate.

2. Scouting. Amazingly, Flagler is the only player that’s ripping it from deep, 48% overall and just 44% inside the arc. Flagler has a high assist rate, doesn’t turn the ball over, but doesn’t really have the ball in his hands as much. George and Cryer are decent from deep, George makes 35% and Cryer 37% and George has the ball in his hands a ton, the team’s highest usage rate by far. Bridges, Ojianwuna, Lohner, and Thamba are the best rebounders and they all shoot well from 2-point range.

3. How They Match Up. I’m telling you there’s a chance. Baylor is expected to win according to T-Rank by 0.3 points, so this game is projected to be a toss-up. Aimaq changes a ton and I’ve moved him into the starting line-up as I write this on Monday morning. It makes a ton of sense and he’s ready as far as I’m concerned. And the numbers that you see are going to be significantly different than what I think you’ll see on the court. I’m hoping the homecourt advantage helps with the turnover issues for Baylor and as long as Texas Tech guards the 3-point line against Flagler and Cryer (and George to an extent), I think Texas Tech should be good.

4. lagniappe | something given as a bonus or extra gift.

5. Official Site. The official site has their preview right here:

Texas Tech will look to secure its first Big 12 win of the season when it hosts Baylor at 8 p.m. on Tuesday at the United Supermarkets Arena following a pair of road losses last week.

The Red Raiders (10-7, 0-5 Big 12) are coming off a tough 72-70 loss at No. 10 Texas where they led by as many as 12 in the first half, while the Bears (12-5, 2-3 Big 12) rolled to a 74-58 home win over Oklahoma State last Saturday in Waco. Tech, which is 8-2 at home this season after going 18-0 on its home court last year, has lost five straight games for the first time since a pair of six-game losing streaks during the 2015 conference slate.

Tech swept the season series against Baylor last year for the first time since 2005 and is now 82-62 all-time in the series over the Bears. The Red Raiders are 47-21 in Lubbock against BU, including the two programs splitting the last 10 matchups at 5-5. Tech earned an 83-73 home win over the Bears last season after knocking off No. 1 Baylor in Waco with a 65-62 victory on January 11, 2022, before the mid-February matchup in Lubbock.

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